Justin Elick 
Thursday is back and with it comes another small slate of games. There will be a pair of four-game slates, and I’m a much bigger fan of the late slate. The four late games provide some good options and values (at least as much as a small slate can). Let’s get things started!
MLB DFS Aces
James Paxton vs Kansas City Royals
Paxton got lit up a bit by the Blue Jays in his last start, serving up a trio of homers. That said, he still only allowed four ER on the day. He has allowed a whopping 21 baserunners over his last two starts (10 IP), but has only allowed five to cross the plate.
He has found a way to limit damage, although his K numbers have dropped dramatically in his last few starts. The Royals have shown some signs of life since the break, but are still a lesser lineup and this is only a 4-game slate.
Paxton still owns a 3.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with a 84/22 K/BB over 75 innings in 2023, and the Royals haven’t exactly been crushing southpaws. On the season, they have just a 88 wRC+, 23.7% K rate, and a .303 wOBA vs LHP.
I’m riding with Paxton on Thursday night with limited options.
Clayton Kershaw vs Colorado Rockies
He’s back! Kershaw returns from the IL for a great matchup with the Rockies at home. He is once again having an excellent season, posting a 2.55 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and a 105/24 K/BB over 95.1 IP in 2023.
I mentioned how poor the Royals have been against LHP, but the Rockies have been the worst in MLB. They have just a 68 wRC+, 26.8% K rate, and .293 wOBA against southpaws. They aren’t even a MLB-level team against LHP.
Kershaw may have a bit shorter of a leash in his return from injury, but that doesn’t concern me on a short slate. It would be surprising if he isn’t the highest scoring SP on the small night slate. The Dodgers are massive -350 favorites, and for good reason.
Zack Littell vs St. Louis Cardinals
This isn’t an easy matchup by any means, but we have to find some value at SP on a short slate.
I’ll take my chances with Littell, who is coming off an excellent outing last time out against Detroit where he went for 6 scoreless innings, allowing just 3 hits. The downside is he doesn’t strike out many batters, which could be an issue against a still-potent Cardinals lineup.
Since becoming a starter, he has pitched 16.1 innings, allowed 17 hits, 3 ER with a 12/1 K/BB.
We need to find some value, and he’s the best option I see. Here’s hoping he can keep the likes of Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt at bay on Thursday night.
MLB DFS Stacks
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Ty Blach
I talked about how terrible the Rockies are against lefties on the other side of this matchup, and the Dodgers are damn near the polar opposite. On the season, they have a 116 wRC+, 11.3% BB rate, .225 ISO, and .342 wOBA against LHP, all while having a league-worst .265 BABIP.
Blach has actually been decent recently, but he pitches to contact (11 K in 26 IP), and that is a recipe for disaster against the Dodgers.
Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Kike Hernandez, and Max Muncy are my favorite targets here. Load up on the Dodgers as much as you can. It might get ugly at Dodger Stadium.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Patrick Corbin
Happy Patrick Corbin day! He finds ways as a crafty veteran to have some decent starts here and there, but this isn’t the spot. Overall, he is still having a brutal season, with an ERA north of 5, a 1.50 WHIP, and just an 89/37 K/BB over 132.1 IP in 2023.
He has served up 5 HR in a dozen innings of work over his last two starts, and the Phillies lineup is waking up in a big way.
Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and the newly-promoted Weston Wilson all look great in this spot, but I’m fine with just about anyone here. Corbin is a walking trainwreck and the Phillies are going to take Corbin to the woodshed on Thursday.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Matthew Liberatore
I tried to give Liberatore a chance last week, but that ship has sailed. It is clear that he isn’t ready for major-league action, and the Rays are ready to take advantage. Over his last three starts (10.1 IP), Liberatore has allowed 18 hits, 12 ER, and has a 2/4 K/BB.
Yes, that is correct. Two strikeouts.
The Rays have been struggling in the last month or so, but this is a great spot for them to hang a big number.
Wander Franco, Issac Paredes, Yandy Diaz, Jose Siri, and Randy Arozarena lead the way here. Pick your poison, the Rays are ready to rock on Thursday night.
MLB DFS Summary
Time to make ourselves some cash on Thursday!
Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
