Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Thanks to some questionable forecasts for storms yesterday, we have a really nice afternoon slate of baseball. What was supposed to be a 4-game slate, has turned into a 6-game slate. Those 6-games should be a ton of fun to both watch and play some MLB DFS on. Pitching is on the blah side but we have some good matchups and also some great spots for offense.
Let’s dig and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Zack Wheeler vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Phillies were one of the teams that pushed back their home opener to Friday, giving us a great matchup for Zack Wheeler against the Cincinnati Reds. In Wheeler’s first outing of the year, he faced a much tougher task with the Texas Rangers. Although he gave up a handful of runs, he also struck out 7 in just 4 innings of work. This Reds lineup is a much weaker lineup (sorry Jimmy) and one that should help Wheeler get back on track and have one of the more dominant outings that we’ve grown accustomed to.
Alex Cobb vs. Kansas City Royals
Through their first 7 games of the season, the Kansas City Royals have scored 17 runs. They are part of just a handful of teams that still haven’t gotten out of the teens in terms of scoring runs. Outside of the top 3-4 hitters on this team, they are nothing more than a AAA lineup at best. It’s going to be a long season for Royals fans in 2023.
With Cobb, we have someone that had a decent start to the year. Facing a much tougher Yankees lineup, Cobb went into the fourth inning striking out 6 and giving up just one run thanks to a homer by Giancarlo Stanton. Cobb is a groundball pitcher and if he can combine his strikeouts with his groundball tendencies, he should be able to thoroughly dominate this weak Royals lineup today.
Hunter Green vs. Philadelphia Phillies
This is a wild card pick today. The Phillies haven’t yet looked themselves this season. They’re just 1-5 through 6 games and like the Royals, they are one of the handful of teams to currently have less than 20 runs scored on this young season. Do they have a strong lineup? Yes, but it’s also one that’s banged up.
This is a matchup that Greene could potentially really excel in. Last season, he had a 35% k rate vs. lefties compared to just 26.5% vs. righties. He’s going to face a lineup today that potentially has 5 lefties in it. He’s going to give up some damage, but the fastball-throwing Greene has a high strikeout capability today.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
New York Yankees vs. Dean Kremer
The Yankees get one of the best matchups on the board today as they take on Dean Kremer. Kremer struggled in his initial outing vs. Boston, giving up 5 ER in just 3 innings of work and also allowing 2 homers. Hitters had a nearly 55% hard-hit rate vs. him and a 64% flyball rate. What a deadly combo to give up! If he’s as hittable today vs. the Yankees, the Yankees can put up a massive number vs. him and the Orioles’ bullpen.
Core: Any Yankees stack needs to start with Aaron Judge. He’s got home run potential in every at-bat and with a flyball pitcher on the mound, that potential goes up exponentially. He’s already up to 2 bombs, look for him to add at least a third one to his total today. I also really like Gleyber Torres here. Torres has been one of the Yankees’ better bats to start the 2023 campaign. You could argue he’s been their best bat so far. He’s not only putting up numbers at the plate, but he’s also up to 5 stolen bases. In this new era of MLB, stolen bases have become more of a common occurrence. A homer and a stolen base aren’t out of the question from Torres today.
Secondary: Other bats we’ll want to target here are going to be Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMehieu, and Oswaldo Cabrera. A full stack of the Yankees is very much in play, with 4 as my preferred number. They should all be able to get to Kremer today.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Clarke Schmidt
A complete game stack of the game in Baltimore today is very much in play. Schmidt had a little bit of a rough go at it in his first outing vs. the Giants. While he was able to strike out 5 in just a little over 3 innings of work, he also gave up 2 bombs and 3 ER. Hitters had a 50% hard-hit rate vs. him and had 3 barrels. A nearly 1:1 ratio of barrels to innings pitched is one I like to see when stacking against a pitcher. He’s going to have his hands full with a very good Orioles lineup today.
Core: This Orioles lineup has been exceptional to start the year. If they had good pitching, they’d be in a much better spot. My core with the Orioles today will be Austin Hays, Jorge Mateo, and Cedric Mullins. All three of these guys have started out the year extremely strong. Mateo has shown both power and speed to start the year. He’s already banged 2 homers while swiping 4 bags. He’s always a risk to get a 0, but he’s also someone that has extreme upside thanks to his speed/power combo. Mullins is also in the same boat as Mateo. He’s shown power and speed to start the year.
Secondary: Other bats that will round out my Orioles stack today will be Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, and Gunnar Henderson. Rutschman has really cooled off since his opening day 5-5 game, but he’s one of the top young bats in the game and can go off at any time. My favorite of the secondary bats is Ryan Mountcastle. He’s been hitting the ball extremely well.
San Francisco Giants vs. Brad Keller
The Giants get a great matchup today vs. Brad Keller. Keller is an average at-best pitcher who has back-to-back seasons with an ERA over 5. In his initial outing this season vs. the Twins, Keller did strike out 5. He also walked 4 and gave up 5 hits in just over 4 innings of work. That equates to a WHIP of pretty close to 2. One of the most important things in MLB DFS is targeting pitchers that put guys on. A WHIP of 1.93 is really bad, making Keller a prime target for stacking against today.
Core: My core with the Giants is going to be their left-handed power bats plus a right-handed bat. I’m going to be targeting guys like Michael Conforto, Joc Pederson, and David Villar. All three of these guys have home-run potential in this matchup. Conforto, after missing all of the 2022 season with a bum shoulder, had his breakout game yesterday. He reached base 5 times and even went deep for his second homer of the season. Expect more of that today. All three are extremely cheap today too.
Secondary/Value: I also like Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade, and Brandon Crawford. This lineup today has a ton of potential against Keller.
MLB DFS Summary
This early slate looks to be a lot of fun. We have some solid pitching plus some bats in really good spots. That Orioles/Yankees game looks juicy from a stacking standpoint.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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