Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
It’s Monday and we have a very manageable 7-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. We are now close to a month into the 2023 season and some things have become abundantly clear. The A’s are bad, very very bad. The Tigers are bad, very very bad. These are 2 teams we’ll often want to pick on with pitching and stacking. Tonight will be no different.
Let’s dig and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Spencer Strider vs. Miami Marlins
From a pure strikeout standpoint, there isn’t a single pitcher on tonight’s slate that has the upside that Spencer Strider has. Through 22 innings of work this season, Strider is already up to 36 K’s. That equates to a massive 14.73 k/9. The next closest person pitching tonight is Lance Lynn at 11.81. Add in the fact that he’s facing the Marlins and we have a pitcher that has immense upside tonight.
He’s the clear SP1 tonight and I don’t think it’s even close. He’ll be a lock in my lineups tonight. I’d only recommend fading if you are MME. Let’s not overthink this one.
Jordan Montgomery vs. San Francisco Giants
Lefties vs. the Giants will be a thing this season. They are at least for now. We saw Joey Lucchesi, the same pitcher that hadn’t pitched in close to 2 years, absolutely mow this team down the other night. The projected lineup tonight for the Giants has a 27% k rate vs. lefties and a sub .300 wOBA. They’ll get the luxury of facing off against Jordan Montgomery tonight.
While Montgomery is never a safe pick, he has shown at times to have some upside. He struck out 9 Brewers a couple of weeks ago. I tend to only use him when the matchup is solid and tonight’s matchup is solid. You’ll need a bottle of Tums, but he should do well tonight.
Colin Rea vs. Detroit Tigers
We just saw a questionable Baltimore Orioles pitching staff take full advantage of a bad Tigers lineup. Colin Rea will be making only his third start of the season but oh what a spot this is for him. He too is far from safe, but we’re limited with pitching options today as many of the teams are on the back ends of their rotation.
We’ve seen some mixed results from Rea this season. He dominated the Padres in his initial start but came right back down to earth against a very good Mariners lineup. With the Tigers being so bad, I’m willing to roll the dice here on Rea.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Los Angeles Angels vs. Ken Waldichuk
Until they prove otherwise, I will be stacking against the A’s on most nights. They currently have a -103 run different on April 24. The next closest team is the Colorado Rockies at -54. They are giving up runs in the teens on multiple occasions each week. Just this week alone they gave up 18 to the Rangers and 12 to the Cubs. The week before they gave up 17 to the Mets and 12 to the Orioles. On any given night, there is blow-up potential and with Ken Waldichuk on the hill tonight, it’s there again.
Has he pitched better of late? The box score says yes. I’m not buying it though. I’m going to stack against him with a team that has a .359 wOBA vs. lefties this season and a .813 OPS. The Angels can get to lefties and they’ll face a beatable one tonight.
My priority in this lineup are 2 lefty crushers. One guy goes by the name of Mike Trout and the other is Hunter Renfroe. Renfroe has been a beast against lefties so far this season. He’s up to a .333 ISO and a .566 wOBA. There’s an excellent chance that he takes Waldichuk deep tonight. There’s not much I need to say about Trout. He’s an excellent play every night, and tonight is exaggerated with a bad pitcher on the mound.
Shohei Ohtani is also very much in play in this L/L matchup. On the year, he has a .379 wOBA vs. lefties and can excel here. Other bats I really like on the Angels are anyone that it’s in the lineup. They are all in play.
Minnesota Twins vs. Jhony Brito
One of the things I like to look at when picking stacks is how many barrels a pitcher has given up. Barrels are a good indicator that a pitcher either makes mistakes and leaves the ball over the plate or the hitters just get a good look at what he’s throwing. Brito has given up 7 barrels already this season in just 15 innings of work. That’s an extremely high number of barrels in not a lot of innings of work.
With Brito, we want to focus on righties. He’s as extreme of a reverse splits pitcher as there is. Righties have a .445 wOBA vs. him this season vs. a .189 for righties. The ISO is also significantly higher for righties.
Knowing this, the first 2 batters I want to look at are going to be Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa. There are few players in the game that have the type of upside that Buxton brings to the table. His only problem has been the ability to stay healthy. So far this season he’s been able to stay on the field and has hit safely in 4 straight games. With a beatable righty on the hill, he should be able to make it 5 straight with a full stat line.
Correa should also excel here. Brito is a sinker ball pitcher. Over the last few years, Correa has a .415 wOBA vs. righty sinkers. Other bats to look at here will be Jorge Polanco, Jose Miranda, and Michael Taylor.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Lance Lynn
I’m not opposed to attacking Lance Lynn tonight. So far this year we haven’t really seen the Lynn we’ve grown accustomed to over the last several seasons. All of his metrics are at or nearly at career-worst marks. Has the big fella hit the wall at age 35 season? It’s quite possible.
While the strikeouts are still there, the BB/9 and HR/9 are insanely high compared to his career numbers. He’s coming off a start that saw him give up 5 ER to the Phillies. We’ll attack him until he gets things right if that happens at all.
The bats I want to prioritize here will be Vlad Guerrero and Matt Chapman. While Chapman has cooled a little bit after his torrid start, he still has 3 barrels over the last week which has resulted in 2 homers. He’s done well vs. righties this year with a .426 wOBA. Vlad Jr. has also done well vs. righties this season with a .254 ISO and a .394 wOBA. Other bats I’ll look to here will be George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Daulton Varsho.
MLB DFS Summary
I’m going to prioritize getting Mike Trout into my lineups tonight. I normally shy away from prioritizing a super expensive player, but he has so much upside tonight in this matchup vs. an awful team.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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