Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
It’s Wednesday and that means we have day baseball! Today we have a 10-game slate of MLB DFS. At first glance, pitching is pretty brutal this afternoon. Most teams are on the back end of their rotations. While that makes for a struggle to pick pitchers, it does make things a bit easier picking bits. There will be plenty of options for our MLB DFS stacks today.
Let’s dig and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Justin Steele vs. Oakland Athletics
Picking on the A’s with pitchers this season will be a thing. While they’ll occasionally show some glimpses of offense, they are bad. Maybe even historically bad. Against southpaws this season, they have an ISO under .100 and an OPS under .700.
With Steele, we have someone pitching very well in 2023. In his first 19 innings of work this season, he has a 26% k rate, a 1.42 ERA, and has done an excellent job of limiting any type of hard contact. Hitters have just a 23% hard-hit rate vs. him this season. This is a solid spot for Steele today.
Alex Cobb vs. Miami Marlins
As I said above, our options are pretty limited today. That brings me to Alex Cobb. The Marlins just aren’t a good lineup. Outside of Luis Arraez, they have little to no talent here. If Cobb can navigate around Arraez today, he should do pretty well. This is a Marlins lineup that has been below average vs. righties season. They have a 25% K rate vs. them and an OPS under .700. Nothing is a sure thing, but I do like Cobb’s chances of being able to do well here.
Trevor Rogers vs. San Francisco Giants
I said pitching was bad today and I meant it. The Giants have not been good vs. lefties this season. The projected lineup today has a 26% k rate vs. lefties this season and has hit for almost no power. They have a combined .078 ISO and a .257 wOBA. All extremely poor numbers.
Rogers hasn’t been that bad this season. His xFIP is just 2.76 and has done his usual job of keeping the ball on the ground. Hitters have a nearly 62% ground ball rate vs. him this season. If he can continue to keep the ball on the ground today, there’s no reason to think he can’t be one of the top-scoring pitchers.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Madison Bumgarner
The Cardinals haven’t been the Cardinals of old so far this season, but oh what a matchup they get today. Madbum is well on the tail end of his career. The last few seasons have been brutal for the big fella and this season has been no different for him either. Through his first 3 starts of the year, he’s given up 5 ER twice. He’s statistically one of the worst pitchers in the game these days. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits here as he’s been bad vs. both sides of the plate.
My Cardinals stack today will start with both Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. They’re both extremely expensive and if I had to pick between the two, I’d go with Arenado. That said, I’m going to try my hardest to find value today because both guys are in smash spots today. Goldy hasn’t hit for much power yet vs. lefties this season, but his wOBA is pushing .400. Arenado has an ISO of .273 vs. lefties so far in 2023.
I’m also interested in guys like Tommy Edman, Wilson Contreras, and Tyler O’Neill. All 3 will have the platoon advantage and have shown in the past that they can easily handle left-handed pitching. While my lean so far has been the righties, every Cardinal is in play today. This is as good of a spot for offense as we’ve seen for them this season.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Spencer Turnbull
So far this season Spencer Turnbull has had some mixed results. His first 2 outings of the year were a complete disaster, allowing a combined 12 ER. He brought his A game in his last outing, allowing just 1 ER in 5 innings of work against a very inconsistent Toronto Blue Jays lineup. Until he shows some consistency, I’m going to attack him with bats. Lefties have so far been his weakness as they have a nearly .500 wOBA vs. him and a .276 ISO.
I’m going to build my Guardians stack today around Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Josh Bell, and Will Brennan today. With Ramirez, the power has yet to really show up for him this season. Through the first 3 weeks of the season, he’s at just 1 homer. They’ll flow soon for him and today could be the day against a pitcher that gives up a decent amount of flyballs.
I also really like Josh Bell here. He’s been arguably their best hitter so far this year. Over the last week, he leads the team with 7 wRC. His 9 hits and 5 RBI also lead the team. For value, we’ll look to Brennan. His price is under $3k and will free up a lot of salary for us today and he should still be able to produce. Andres Gimenez is also a bat I like here. He’s got a plethora of talent and could be one of the top bats on the slate.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Austin Gomber
Austin Gomber is coming off back-to-back brutal starts. Over those 2 starts, he’s allowed a combined 10 ER, one of which was against the lowly Washington Nationals. While he hasn’t been getting hit too hard, he’s been giving up way too many flyballs. His flyball rate in 2023 is pushing 50%. Playing in Coors, giving up that many flyballs is asking for trouble. I’m going to focus mostly on the righties here. His flyball rate climbs from 36% against lefties to 50% vs. righties. He also gives up more hard contact vs. righties.
I’ll start my Pirates stack today with Brian Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen, and Carlos Santana. These 3 hit at the top of the lineup and have historically done well against southpaws. The top bat here is obviously Reynolds as he’s one of the top young bats in all of baseball. Santana has been a big producer for this team. Over the last week, he leads the team in RBI and should continue to produce today in a smash spot.
I also like Connor Joe and Ke’Bryan Hayes here. Joe, playing against his former team, has done very well vs. lefties so far this season. He has a .308 ISO vs. them and a .463 wOBA. He’s also very affordable at $3.8k today.
MLB DFS Summary
We’ll want to be careful today navigating our pitching. It’s tough sledding out there and most pitchers have a ton of risk. There’s no shortage of bats though as we have some really bad pitchers throwing today. I’ll be loading up on Cards and Pirates today.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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