Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Happy Monday Funday! Tonight have a nice-sized 9-game slate of MLB DFS. We have a couple of studs on the mounds that we’ll need to decide on. We also have some arms in the mid-salary range that look extremely appealing. This is shaping up to be an extremely fun slate of MLB DFS.
Let’s dig and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Jacob deGrom vs. Kansas City Royals
This is essentially a rematch of deGrom’s last outing. A week ago, deGrom faced this same Royals team. He had a really good outing, but it was nothing special. He finished that game with 9 strikeouts over 7 innings of work and allowed 2 ER. I’d expect more of the same tonight against the Royals.
Normally we shy away from taking a pitcher throwing against the same team in back-to-back starts. But not with deGrom. He’s a different breed. He can face the same lineup 5 straight days and still strike out 9-10 batters. I’m locking him in tonight as my SP1.
Kevin Gausman vs. Houston Astros
The Houston offense this season has so far looked very average and inconsistent. After scoring 8 runs on Saturday, they were shut down yesterday by a combination of Andrew Heaney and the Rangers bullpen. This is a lineup that can be taken advantage of in the right situations and tonight’s one of them. They’ve struggled vs. righties, as they have a 24% k rate and just a .105 ISO.
Gausman himself has been exceptional to start the season. He’s sporting a 32% k rate and a 2.62 xFIP. He’s been doing a great job of keeping the ball on the ground too as hitters have a nearly 50% ground ball rate vs. him. It’s far from a safe pick, but I really like the chances of Gausman having a solid outing vs. the Astros tonight.
Corbin Burnes vs. Seattle Mariners
I’m considering taking a flyer on Burnes tonight. After opening the season with 2 duds, he returned to form in his last out, going 8 strong innings allowing 0 runs and striking out 8. The Diamondbacks’ lineup this season has been surprisingly good and dominating them may be what he needed to shake out of the funk that he started the season in. This is far from a safe pick though as the Mariners have been strong.
If you’re feeling a little frisky tonight, give Kyle Freeland a try. He’s only $7.1k and has been pitching pretty well, especially at home. He’s coming off back-to-back starts allowing a combined 2 ER against the Nats and the Cards. We also have the case where the first games in Colorado are typically low scoring. Add in the fact that it’s the Pirates, things really set up well for him tonight.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chris Flexen
For the first time this season, I’m going back to a team that has won me a considerable amount of money over the last few seasons. The Milwaukee Brewers get the gift of facing off against Chris Flexen tonight. After starting out the year with a solid performance vs. the Guardians, things have gone south fast for Flexen.
In his last outing vs. the Cubs, Flexen gave up 8 ER in 2 innings of work. Now some of that was inflated because the wind was blowing out heavily in Chicago in that one, but Flexen is not a good pitcher and one I often attack. With Flexen, we want to get some of the righty bats in. He’s historically been a reverse splits pitcher and this season has been no different. Righties have a .321 ISO vs. him compared to just .050 for the lefties.
With that said, I’m starting off my Brewers stack with Willy Adames and William Contrares. Adames is my favorite of the 2 as he’s crushed righties so far in this young season. Through his first 50+ plate appearances vs. righties. Adames has a .250 ISO and a .391 wOBA. He’s not a righty, but I absolutely love Rowdy Tellez here. He’s been smashing the ball all year and should tonight as well. He’s up to 5 dongs and 12 RBI. Other bats I like here will be Mike Brosseau, Garrett Mitchell, and Christian Yelich.
Colorado Rockies vs. Dick Mountain
Rich Hill has had a storied career that feels like it has spanned decades. Well, he is in his third different decade pitching so it has been decades. Father time appears to be catching up to him though as his 2023 season has not been good. My biggest reason for chasing against Hill tonight is that flyball rate of his. So far this season, Hill has a 51% flyball rate.
In an environment such as Coors, giving up flyballs half the time means there is a significantly higher likelihood of homers. The ball just travels farther at a higher altitude. He’s been getting crushed, and I mean crushed by righties this season. They have a .412 wOBA and a .426 ISO.
My Rockies stack will be tailored around Kris Bryant, CJ Cron, and Elias Diaz. Bryant is my favorite as he’s been solid vs. lefties to start the year. In a small sample size, he has a .286 ISO vs. them. If we go back to the start of last season, even though he missed a good chunk of it, he had similar numbers so we know we aren’t chasing with him. Cron is another bat that profiles really well here. He’s historically done well against lefties and has extremely strong numbers vs. lefty curveballs. In theory, he should do well here. Other bats I’ll look to get in here will be Yonathan Daza, Ezequial Tovar, and Elehuris Montero.
Texas Rangers vs. Jordan Lyles
Jordan Lyles is a lister. He’s on a list of pitchers that we keep for pitchers that should be stacked against. I preach this all the time. We attack pitchers that give up a high amount of contact and a high amount of fly balls. So far this season, Lyles has an 86% contact rate and a 46% flyball rate. These are extremely attackable numbers. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits against Lyles. He’s been historically bad against both sides of the plate.
With the Rangers tonight, I’m going to build around Marcus Semien, Nate Lowe, Jonah Heim, and Josh Jung. Over the last week, Heim leads the team with 6 wRC. His 1.219 OPS also leads the time by quite a margin. At $3.2k on DK, he’s a steal tonight. Lowe has also been really good and I would not be surprised to see him take Lyles deep tonight. His 52% flyball rate + Lyles exaggerated flyball mean there will be lots of balls in the air tonight.
Other bats I’ll look to here will be Adolis Garcia, Robbie Grossman, and Leody Tavares. Tavares is someone that although can be cold at times, showed last season he could be a game-changer.
MLB DFS Summary
This is shaping up to be a fun slate tonight. There are some pitchers in good spots and some bats in really good spots. Milwaukee is my team I’ll be building my bats around.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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