Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
We finally have ourselves a full slate of baseball on a Friday night. Tonight, we have a massive 12-game slate of MLB DFS. Pitching-wise, we have a slate that is full of average to slightly above-average arms. There are few clear aces here so we’ll need to dig deep to find arms that will be able to fully take advantage of their spots. With that, we also have a bunch of bats in great spots making for a fun evening of MLB DFS.
Let’s dig and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Kodai Senga vs. Oakland Athletics
Kodai Senga gets one of the better matchups on paper tonight. I’m going to completely ignore the number of runs that the A’s were able to put up against the Orioles because the Orioles’ pitching staff is going to be historically bad this season. Senga should be able to walk through this lineup with relative ease.
If you end up using Senga tonight and watch the game, you’ll want to skip the first inning. In both of his starts this season, he’s struggled in the first and then settled down nicely to win both. His ghost forkball is nearly unhittable and if it’s on tonight, he should be able to strike out a ton of A’s hitters. In my opinion, he’s the clear SP1 tonight.
Drew Rasmussen vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have a very strong lineup on paper. That said, they are also an extremely inconsistent lineup and one that wasn’t able to do anything last night vs. a far inferior pitcher in Spencer Turnbull. They showed last night that they can be had and next up to do it will be Drew Rasmussen.
Rasmussen is coming into this after back-to-back stellar outings. Through 2 starts, he’s sporting a nearly 36% K rate. Now the 2 starts were against the Nationals and the A’s, but he’s been spot-on with his pitches. Not only has he been striking out a ton of batters, but the batters that do make contact are not getting good wood on the pitches. Hitters this season have just a 15% hard-hit rate vs. him. He’s been great and he’ll continue to roll tonight vs. the Blue Jays
I know I normally stick with 3 aces, but after Rasmussen and Senga tonight, there’s not a single pitcher that I feel comfortable recommending. Each has a ton of risk or just isn’t very good. I’ll be rocking double aces tonight.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
New York Mets vs. James Kaprielian
James Kaprielian is one of of my favorite pitchers to target when he’s on the mound. He’s someone that just gives up a ton of contact (83%), a ton of fly balls (47%), and a ton of hard hits (50%). The three of these things combined make for a pitcher that plays with fire and when you face a solid lineup like the Mets, it’s going to make for a very tough evening. While Kaprielian has been pretty bad vs. both sides of the plate this season, he’s been especially bad vs. lefties. Lefties have a .512 wOBA and a .480 ISO vs. him.
Knowing how bad Kap has been against lefties this season, that brings Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, and Jeff McNeil into play. Nimmo, who has been an on-base machine this season, is fairly priced at $4k tonight. With the new rules in place this season, Nimmo has also started to run more, with 3 stolen bases.
Of the 3 lefties I mentioned, Lindor is really the one with the power. That said, I’m never going to chase homers in Oakland. Lindor can easily have a full stat-line though tonight. He’s not a lefty, but Pete Alonso is off to a red-hot start. He’s the one righty that I’d really be interested in here as he possesses enough power to make even the largest of ballparks seem small. The Mets are a full stack for me tonight.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Mike Clevinger
This Baltimore Orioles offense is going to be a fun one to watch and play in MLB DFS this season. Night in and night out, they’ll have players that can easily be the highest-scoring players on the night. Tonight they’ll get a nice matchup vs. a contact pitcher that gives up a ton of fly balls. On the year, Clevinger has a nearly 47% flyball rate and an 83% contact rate. Against an Orioles team that has a lot of pop, that’s going to make for a long (or short) night for Clevinger.
Any Orioles stack starts with Adley Rutschman. He’s someone that can go quiet at times, but he’s coming into this game right off a walk-off homer yesterday vs. the A’s. Rutschman is also someone that I really only target when he’s hitting from the left side. So far in his young career, he’s been a significantly better hitter from the left side.
Next up will be guys like Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, Jorge Matteo, and Gunnar Henderson. Each of the guys has the ability to produce full stat lines and that’s what we look for in MLB DFS. Matteo will get you steals with a little power mixed in. Both Hays and Mountcastle have a ton of power and Henderson is a great young bat. This lineup has a ton of potential tonight in a soft matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Jake Woodford
The Cardinals are currently a mess. They were shut out by Vincent Velasquez last night 5-0 and turn the ball over to Jake Woodford tonight. Woodford has not looked overly good so far this season. Through 2 starts, Woodford has an xFIP of 5.46 and an ERA of 9. He’s been getting hit extremely hard, with 5 barrels allowed in just 9 innings of work.
He’s also given up 4 homers in those 9 innings. Until he gets things right, he is someone we’ll want to attack. Although the Pirates aren’t someone I’d normally target on a large slate like this, I’m going double aces tonight and I need some value. The Pirates will provide that.
The main bat when it comes to the Pirates is Bryan Reynolds. He’s far from a value piece as he’s $5.9k tonight. If you can afford him, go for it. I’m more interested in the bottom of the lineup and guys like Carlos Santana, Ji-man Choi, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Rodolfo Castro. Each of them is under $4k. Santana has had a really solid week, with 6 wRC and a .993 OPS. He’s only $3.5k and gets the platoon advantage being that he’s a switch hitter.
Hayes is someone that is churning to break out. He has only 5 hits in his last 27 AB, but he’s had a 90% contact rate. If you put the ball in play 90% of the time as he does, good things will eventually come your way.
MLB DFS Summary
I’m going to keep things simple on this large slate. I’m going double aces and stacking 1 expensive stack with a cheap stack. Many of the hurlers on the mound today carry an inherent risk. I didn’t mention the Rays as a stack tonight because I think tonight is the night their streak ends. Berrios, although he has a high ERA, hasn’t pitched as bad as his numbers indicate. He could easily shut them down tonight.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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