Jared Levitt 
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll go through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Hump Day! It’s Wednesday and that brings us another split slate of MLB DFS. I’m going to be focused on tonight’s 7 game slate. Pitching on this slate is mostly atrocious. The one true ace on this slate is Blake Snell and he gets a dance with the Dodgers. This does however mean we should have plenty of spots for stacks tonight.
Let’s dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Blake Snell vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
I touched on this in the opener, but the one true ace on this slate is Blake Snell and he gets a matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. It’s a scary matchup but Blake Snell has been an absolute beast this season. His K rate has been down a bit of late, but it’s still over 30% over the last month.
Is he safe tonight? Far, very far from it. But his price is down from where it’s been as he’s only $10.1k on DK tonight. That’s much easier to swallow than the $11k we’ve seen him recently. This game has the makings of a 2-1 game and I do believe that Snell pitches well enough tonight to get to at least his 20 DK points that I like to see from $10k pitchers.
Joey Lucchesi vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
I said that pitching was bad tonight and I meant it. Every single pitcher comes with risk. We could have gone with Hunter Brown but he’s been really bad of late. Lucchesi has made just one start over the last month and it was really solid. Against the Cardinals, he went 5 strong innings and struck out 5. He walked away with the W and ended up with 23 DK points.
Do we expect the same tonight? Eh, maybe. The Diamondbacks on the year haven’t been all that great vs. lefties. They have just a .146 ISO vs. them and a .709 OPS. Nothing special on their end. Lucchesi is very cheap tonight at just $6.2k and will allow us to get most of the bats that we want.
I don’t mind Zac Gallen tonight vs. the Mets but I actually like some of their bats. Brown has been bad so I’m hesitant to start him, even against the A’s. Look at what they did vs. Verlander last night.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Houston Astros vs. Paul Blackburn
I’m not really sold on Paul Blackburn. He’s pitched well over the last month but I’ve always thought he was overrated and have looked for opportunities to stack against him. Tonight’s going to be no different. He has a great ERA over the last month at just 2.33 but he also has some metrics that scream that he could get lit up by a good lineup. He’s allowed a 40% hard-hit rate and he’s also allowed a nearly 37% flyball rate over that stretch.
Both of those numbers are well above average and against a lineup like the Astros, he could get lit up. I’ll enjoy watching it. Against Blackburn, splits aren’t really that important. He’s been pretty splits neutral this season.
If you’ve followed my writing over the years, you know I have an affinity for Yordan Alvarez. He is a beast and when he’s hot, he may have the best swing in the game of baseball. Against righties this season he’s been great. He owns a .438 wOBA and a .312 ISO. Those numbers are insanely high and I’m going to make it a priority to get him into my lineup tonight.
After Alvarez, I really like guys like Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, and Jose Abreu. Abreu has found the fountain of youth and has been swinging a solid bat. He’s got 10 RBI over the last week and should be able to hammer some home tonight in a great matchup vs. a bad pitcher IMO. The Astros have one of the highest implied run totals on the slate. Vegas has this one right.
Chicago White Sox vs. Steven Cruz/Royals Bullpen
The Royals plan on going with Steven Cruz as their starter tonight so we’re more than likely to see a bullpen game out of the Royals. This is a great thing for us because the Royals bullpen is not good. Over the last 2 weeks, the Royals bullpen has been bad. They own a 4.50 xFIP and an ERA that is pushing 5. It’s an exploitable spot, even if it’s the White Sox.
The White Sox have some guys that have been hitting the ball well and have hit the ball well most of the year. I’m going to be focused on the 4 guys in the middle of the lineup. Those guys are Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, and Andrew Vaughn. My favorite of the bunch is going to be Andrew Vaughn. He’s been great of late. He’s 7 for his last 21 and has an OPS that is extremely close to 1.000 over the last week.
Moncada has been showing a little bit of power as he’s homered twice over the last week. He’s in a great spot tonight to continue his solid hitting. I also like Tim Anderson and Andrew Benintendi here. It’s far from a safe spot but the White Sox are in a great spot tonight.
Other stacks I like tonight are the Mets vs. Gallen and Royals vs. Mike Clevinger.
MLB DFS Summary
This slate has the makings of a fun one!
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Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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