Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
It’s Monday Funday! And that means we have a smaller than slate of MLB DFS. Tonight we’ll have 6 games to work with, 2 of which have the potential for some really nasty storms. This slate brings us a little bit of everything. Solid pitching, disappointing pitchers, and some solid bats in line to have monster nights.
Let’s dig and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Dylan Cease vs. Los Angeles Angels
Dylan Cease appears to have re-found his mojo. Over the last month, Cease has been the Cease we’ve come to love. A pitcher that strikes out batters at an excessive amount. Over his last 26 innings of work, Cease has a massive 36% K rate. That’s higher than any pitcher, including Spencer Strider, on this slate. And do you want to know what makes it even better? Cease is just $7.7k tonight.
So we’re getting a pitcher that has racked up 44 strikeouts over his last 5 outings for a bargain bin price. Now don’t get me wrong, he’s far from safe. The Angels are a very good lineup. They just put up a 25 spot the other night. That said, I really like the form that Cease is in right now and he’s been an ace-caliber pitcher in the past. I’m locking him in as a value starter tonight.
Justin Verlander vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The version of Justin Verlander that the Mets have received so far has not been a good one. For the most part, this season has been a struggle for last year’s AL Cy Young award winner. Even though it’s been a struggle, I do like the spot for him tonight. The Brewers have been an extremely inconsistent lineup this season. They can put up runs with the best of them, but they can also strike out with the worst of them.
Against righties this season, the Brewers have a 25% K rate and an OPS of just .684. As I said, this is a good spot for Verlander to dial it back and have one of his vintage outings. We also have some trends with Verlander. Every other outing for Verlander this season has been over 20 DK points. In his last outing, he scored just 12. You know what that means. He’s getting us over 20 DK points at just $8.3k.
Other pitchers I like today will be Spencer Strider vs. Minnesota and Luis Castillo vs. Washington (concerned a bit with Washington’s propensity to not strike out).
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Baltimore Orioles vs. Brandon Williamson
Brandon Williamson is arguably the worst pitcher throwing tonight. Over the last month, he has by far the worst xFIP and ERA of any pitcher on the mount. In his last 26 innings of work, he’s allowed 6 homers and 12 barrels. All of this damage has led to him having an ERA over 6.00 over that stretch. The only thing keeping him afloat right now is that he’s had some good command.
He’s allowed just 2.36 BB/9, which has led to an ok WHIP of 1.46. With Williamson, we want to focus mostly on the right-handed hitters in this lineup. Righties have a .293 ISO and a .372 wOBA against him this season. He’s allowed a 36% flyball rate and a nearly 57% hard-hit rate vs. them. Let’s load up on some righties for the Orioles.
I’m going to load up on the first 3 hitters in this lineup. Austin Hays, Adley Rutchsman, and Anthony Santander all have great numbers this season vs. lefties. Santander is the key here. His numbers against lefties this season are far and away the best on the team. Through 79 plate appearances, Santander has a .409 wOBA and a.238 ISO. He’s also coming into this one swinging the hottest stick in this lineup. Over the last week, Santander has 4 homers and a 1.333 OPS.
Other bats we’ll want to include will be Aaron Hicks (yes, that Aaron Hicks), Jorge Mateo, and Ramon Urias. If this game plays without a hitch, the Orioles should be able to put up a big number.
Texas Rangers vs. Matthew Boyd
The advanced metrics say that Matthew Boyd shouldn’t be this bad. His xFIP is sitting at just 3.21 over the last month. That’s more than 2 runs lower than his actual ERA over the same period. He’s not giving up too many flyballs and he’s not letting a whole lot of runners on. His issue has been once those runners get on, they score. He has a slate worse 59% LOB %. So once he’s letters runners on, more than 40% of them score.
While a little unlucky, you’re just not going to have much success if you can’t limit the damage and he hasn’t been able to limit the damage. To make matters worse for Boyd, he’s facing off against a team in the Rangers tonight that is one of the best in the league against southpaws. It’s going to be a huge struggle for him.
I’m going to prioritize getting guys like Josh Jung, Adolis Garcia, and Jonah Heim into my lineups today. Josh Jung has been making a huge case for Rookie of the Year this season with his stellar play, even though he’s quieted down a smidge. Against lefties this season, Jung has a .444 wOBA and a .324 ISO. His numbers against them are extremely impressive.
Another play that I want to make sure I get into my lineups will be Ezequiel Duran. He’s hot at the plate right now and has also been stellar vs. lefties. Over his last 24 AB, he has 8 hits and an OPS of .958. Both Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are in play tonight, I’m just not going to force them in.
Other bats I like tonight will be Cincy vs. Cole Irvin, Mets vs. Colin Rea, and Mariners vs. Trevor Williams. Braves as always, are in play.
MLB DFS Summary
The story of the night will be the weather. There are a few games where weather may cause us to go in a different route. We’ll want to keep an eye on Baltimore and New York.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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