Jared Contestabile 
We have a packed slate of games all day on Saturday, starting with the London Series between the Cardinals and Cubs. That game has a massive total of 13.5, so have fun with some SGP and single-game DFS action. First main slate of games starts at 4:05 ET. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Aces
Merrill Kelly vs San Fransisco Giants
Kelly has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. Across 90 innings of work, he has posted a 2.90 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 96/35 K/BB. He now takes on a Giants team that has been performing above their talent level…and in a pitcher’s park.
Kelly has allowed 3 ER or less in seven consecutive starts, and nine of his last ten. The Giants rank in the top 10 in some offensive categories, but they do a lot of their damage via the longball (they have 95 on the season, 9th most in MLB). Kelly has allowed just 9 HR in 90 innings this year, good for less than 1 HR/9. He is a safe bet here with a decent bit of upside.
Jose Berrios vs Oakland Athletics
Jose Berrios got rocked in his last start, serving up 5 ER on 8 hits across just four innings against the Marlins. He draws a much more favorable matchup here against the worst offense in baseball. The Jays are massive -280 favorites here, and Berrios should be able to get back on track.
Prior to his disaster last time out, Berrios had allowed 0, 2, 1, 0, and 1 ER over his last five starts with a combined 23/13 K/BB. He doesn’t possess a very high ceiling (79 K in 89 IP), but should be able to pitch deep here if his command is in check.
James Paxton vs Chicago White Sox
Remember the days of James Paxton being an ace? Well, he has certainly looked the part again thus far in 2023 since his return. He has been electric of late, striking out 32 batters and walking just 5 over his last four starts. During that span, he has allowed just 6 ER in 23.1 innings of work.
The White Sox have some power bats that can take advantage of Paxton’s longball issues, but if he continues to command the zone as he has, a solo shot or two won’t hurt him too badly. The Red Sox are small -120 favorites on the road in this one.
MLB DFS Stacks
Seattle Mariners vs Dean Kremer
Dean Kremer is one of the worst pitchers in baseball who continues to get regular work. His numbers aren’t terrible (4.56 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), but he has given up 14 HR in 81 innings of work, and now faces a red-hot offense. His statcast metrics suggest that he is much, much worse than these numbers.
I’m banking on the Mariners putting up big numbers in this one. Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic, and Cal Raleigh are my main targets here.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Jordan Lyles
This is a match made in heaven if you’re the Tampa Bay Rays. The actual worst starter in the majors faces the team that can’t stop hitting home runs. What could go wrong? Lyles is now 0-11 with a 6.72 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and just a 62/29 K/BB over 85.2 innings. Did I mention he has given up 18 HR? Let’s go ahead and assume that number will be 20+ by the end of Saturday.
Jose Siri has been on fire, Randy Arozarena does it all, Manuel Margot is finding his swing, Josh Lowe and Issac Paredes are always threats. Take your pick here, I’d be stunned if Lyles keeps this one close.
COORS FIELD
We only saw 11 runs scored last night between these two teams, but Saturday night is set up for some fireworks. Neither Griffin Canning or Chase Anderson are in a good spot here. The total is a huge 12.5. Anderson has given up 7 HR in his last four starts, and Canning has served up 6 over his last four.
I can’t just name them all, but you know what to do here.
Ohtani, Trout, Drury, Renfroe, Elias Diaz, Nolan Jones, Ryan McMahon, Randall Grichuk. Anyone with an ounce of pop should be on your radar here.
MLB DFS Summary
The London game looks like fun to kick things off, and we end with what looks like a massive shootout in Coors Field. Happy Saturday to everyone!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
