Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
It’s Wednesday and that brings us a split slate of baseball. This article will be focused on the 7-game slate of MLB DFS that is starting at 12:10 EST. This slate brings us some exciting teams in the Reds, Orioles, and Rays and also brings us some bottom feeders in the Rockies, Royals and Detroit. There will be plenty of options on both the pitching front and stacking front.
Let’s dig and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Zac Gallen vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers are solidifying a spot on the “Use Pitchers Against” list. They continuously strike out a ton and have one of the most inconsistent lineups in the game. Ryne Nelson, a much inferior starter to Gallen, was able to strikeout 6 Brewers over 5 innings of work. This sets up for Zac Gallen to have one of his vintage outings, an outing just like the one that he’s coming off against the Guardians.
Zac Gallen struck out 7 in that one and there’s little reason to think he can’t replicate that number or even increase upon it against a team that is striking out nearly 25% of the time against righties this season. Gallen is my SP1 on this slate.
Andrew Abbott vs. Colorado Rockies
This pick comes with a smidge of risk. So far through 3 starts, Andrew Abbott is sporting a 0 ERA and has been over 17 DK points in all 3. He comes into this matchup today against the Rockies facing a team that for all intents and purposes has been awful against lefties. Combined, they have a 26% strikeout rate vs. lefties and a wOBA of .284. In theory, Abbott should be able to walk right through this lineup.
There are some warning signs though of regression for Abbott. He’s giving up a ton of flyballs, a ton of hard hits, and few strikeouts. His xFIP is a full 5 runs higher than his 0 ERA. There’s going to be some negative regression coming his way, I just don’t think it will be today vs. a team that struggles vs. lefties.
Other pitchers I like this afternoon are Brady Singer vs. Detroit and Julio Teheran vs. Arizona.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Cincinnati Reds vs. Connor Seabold
The surging first-place Cincinnati Reds won their tenth straight game last night and now hold a .5 game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers. Yes, you read that right. The Cincinnati Reds are in first place and there is no sign of them slowing down. Today they’ll get a cake matchup vs. Connor Seabold.
Over the last month, Seabold has pitched to a 5.76 ERA which is right in line with this 5.63 xFIP. We’re getting what we expect to be getting from the Rockies’ righthander. With Seabold, we won’t need to be overly concerned with splits. He’s been pretty bad vs. both sides of the play, with the righties having a slightly higher wOBA than the lefties.
I want to preface this by saying that the entire Reds lineup will be in play today. They scored 8 yesterday and I’m sure they’ll put up another crooked number today. Seabold has been bad and the Reds lineup has been dynamic. It sets up for another high-scoring day for the Big Red Machine. That said, I’m going to prioritize getting in Elly De La Cruz, TJ Friedl, and Jake Fraley.
All have excellent numbers vs. righties this season. Both De La Cruz and Fraley have ISO’s over .200 against righties. De La Cruz so far has shown way more competence as a left-handed hitter so he’s an absolute lock for me today. Other bats that are higher up on the priority list for me will be Joey Votto and Will Benson. Again though, everyone is in play.
Houston Astros vs. Tylor Megill
When the Mets let guys like Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, and Seth Lugo go, it was with the notion that Tylor Megill would be able to step into the number 5 starter spot and do well. That hasn’t happened. It’s actually been the opposite. Over his last 5 starts, Megill has allowed 4 runs or more in the 3 of them. Over the last month, he has a slate-worse 6.75 ERA.
The thing that has killed him the most has been his control. He has a 4.76 BB/9 over his last 22 innings of work which has led to a 1.99 WHIP. You can’t be successful giving up that many passes and having a WHIP close to 2 screams bad. Megill has similar numbers to both sides of the plate so I won’t be overly concerned with splits.
I’ll start by saying this lineup has been extremely inconsistent. They scored 4 last night, but just 1 the night before. Even without Yordan Alvarez though, this lineup has some upside, even if they aren’t a sure thing. I’m going to look to get guys like Kyle Tucker, Yainer Diaz, and Jose Altuve into my lineups. Diaz has actually been the hottest hitter in this lineup over the last week. Over his last 26 AB, he has 9 hits and 3 homers. He’s also sporting an OPS of 1.077. That’s the highest on the team over that stretch.
After those 3, I’ll also look to get in Alex Bregman, Chas McCormick, and Jeremy Pena. This lineup today has the potential to put up a large number as long as they are patient with Megill.
Other stacks I like today are Toronto vs. Sandy Alcantera, Kansas City vs. Matthew Boyd, and the New York Mets vs. Christian Javier.
MLB DFS Summary
This slate is shaping up to be a fun one. We have the most exciting team in baseball right now in the Reds with a cake matchup on paper. We also have some pitchers in smash spots like Zac Gallen.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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