Jared Contestabile 
It’s the last day of games before the All-Star break, which means a few things. We will likely see some lineups we don’t expect, guys being given a bit of rest, and everything in between. The main slate starts at 1:35 ET, and there is plenty to be excited about! Let’s crush this slate then get ready to make some money on the Home Run Derby!
MLB DFS Aces
Jesus Luzardo vs Philadelphia Phillies
Yet another player who came up with Oakland who is finding success elsewhere. Weird how that happens. We aren’t here to commiserate about that team and their ineptitude. What we ARE here for is money, and Luzardo has been MONEY lately.
His last three starts have each been worth a minimum of 28.7 DK points, and he has a 26/4 K/BB over those three outings while allowing…ZERO runs. He has 120 K in 103 innings of work, and the Phillies are always susceptible to the punchout. While some may flock to the more proven commodity in Aaron Nola in this game, I’m on Luzardo.
Over the last 7 days, the Phillies offense has been pathetic, posting a 23.7% K rate and a 3.4% BB rate, which is EASILY the lowest in baseball over that span.
Luzardo should have plenty of upside in this one, and I love him here. The Marlins are small -120 favorites here with a total of just 7.5. It’s time to turn to Jesus.
Tarik Skubal vs Toronto Blue Jays
No, this isn’t a piggyback play after what happened to Toronto yesterday. What I’m after here is one of the best young arms in the game who is ready to roll. His 2023 debut was nothing short of spectacular, tossing four no-hit innings with six punchouts against the A’s on just 58 pitches.
I would be stunned to see him go much more than 80 pitches here as the Tigers ease him back into action, but we have to take some shots on a slate like this, and I love Skubal. The dynasty baseball nerd in me has been watching his progress for years, and the kid has ace potential in my book.
The short leash certainly puts a damper on his upside, but I’m rolling with him here. We may see an unorthodox lineup from Toronto, but either way I think he can smash this salary. The risk is inherent, but you don’t win without taking chances. This is my hill to die on today.
Shane Bieber vs Kansas City Royals
Bieber is still a very good pitcher, although he isn’t often the guy who will rack up huge strikeout numbers anymore. Well, facing a Kansas City offense may change that for him today. He faced this same AAAA squad two starts back and was fantastic, striking out 8 over six scoreless innings with just a single walk and two hits.
He has had his issues this season, including five walks last time out against Atlanta, but we can go ahead and give him a pass there. This play is about safety and some upside, and Bieber has it all against this offense. The Royals have a 27.1% K rate over the last week, a .277 team wOBA, and a 73 wRC+. They are struggling big time, and the Guardians are looking to end the first half in a big way. Bieber is a solid option today.
MLB DFS Stacks
Cincinnati Reds vs Wade Miley
The former Reds pitcher is in for a rough day on Sunday. The Reds have shocked the MLB world with their breakout this season, and they have been one of the best against LHP. On the season, they own a .770 OPS, .335 wOBA, and a walk rate north of 8% against southpaws.
Miley is a contact pitcher who doesn’t miss bats very often. He has just 38 strikeouts to 16 walks over 61 innings this season, and the Reds lineup is dangerous.
Elly De La Cruz just completed more history yesterday by stealing every base in about 10 seconds, Joey Votto has found the fountain of youth (be sure to check if he is in the lineup), and the list goes on all day. Matt Mclain, Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson, and Jake Fraley are all in play here. Kevin Newman shouldn’t be blocking CES anymore, but he is cheap and could hit leadoff. The Reds are looking to make a statment before the break, and Miley is going to have to take on the challenge.
Godspeed.
Chicago White Sox vs Steven Matz
Sure, Matz is unlikely to go past 4 innings or so, as his highest pitch count is 64 since late May as a bullpen arm. He is taking the place of Adam Wainwright because he is “hurt” (he just sucks, but that’s what we are being told).
Luis Robert is one of the hottest hitters on the planet, Eloy Jimenez is taking form, Jake Burger, Oscar Colas, and Tim Anderson all have some upside here as well. Matz may be given a longer leash in order to preserve some bullpen arms, and that is good news for the ‘Sox. They can’t be any worse than they were yesterday, right?
Chicago Cubs vs Domingo German
Regardless of the fact that he is a truly terrible person and shouldn’t be playing professional baseball, German is not that good as a pitcher either. Perfect game aside, he has had major struggles this season. I imagine Dansby Swanson will continue to get rest going into the break, but did you know that Cody Bellinger (despite going 0-4 yesterday) is batting .449 over the last 14 days? Even more impressively, his K rate is 7.5% over that span. He is looking again like a former MVP.
Journeyman Mike Tauchman has been heating up, Ian Happ is always a threat to park one in the seats, Nico Hoerner is one of the best contact hitters in the game, and Seiya Suzuki has power upside as well. If you believe in Christopher Morel also, I don’t blame you.
This is going to be a bad day for a bad person, and we will make some money from it. Let’s go Cubbies!
MLB DFS Summary
I hope everyone makes some cash and enjoys the All-Star Break! See you all here again next week!
Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
