Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Happy Hump Day! Tonight we have ourselves an 11-game slate of MLB DFS. At first glance, this slate brings us some strong matchups both on the mound and at bat. We a pitcher in Justin Steele with a beautiful matchup and we also have the Braves in another matchup where they should absolutely smash. Let’s see if those can be some building blocks for us today.
Let’s dig and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Justin Steele vs. Milwaukee Brewers
If you’ve been following me this season, you know that I’ve been targeting lefties vs. the Brewers. Last time out, we went with Dick Mountain against them and he proceeded to turn back the clock and get 17 DK points at a $6.2k salary. Now Justin Steele is way more expensive than Hill was so he isn’t even remotely a value play, but he’s been pitching amazingly and this matchup screams ceiling-type game for the young Cubs hurler.
He’s coming off back-to-back 27 DK point outings. In those games, he combined to strike out 14 batters in 12 innings of work. I’ll take a more than 1:1 ratio every day of the week and with a matchup vs. a Brewers team striking out nearly 28% of the time vs lefties, there’s some serious K upside for Steele tonight.
Pablo Lopez vs. Kansas City Royals
We saw Kent Maeda have his way with the Royals yesterday, striking out 9 in 7 innings of work and allowing just 1 ER. With how well Lopez has been pitching, there’s no reason to think that he can’t come close to duplicating that. Over the last month, Lopez has a 31.5% k rate and a 71% first strike rate.
He’s been doing an amazing job staying ahead of hitters and that’s helped him get at least 20 DK points in 4 of his last 5 starts. He’s also been getting a 31% chase rate against hitters as well. Lopez should be able to return value tonight even though he’s priced over $10k. There’s little to this Royals lineup that scares me these days. Going double aces with Steele and Lopez is very much in play.
Other pitchers that will be in my player pool tonight will be Bobby Miller vs. the Pirates, Kodai Senga vs. Arizona, and Jose Berrios vs. Chicago. Berrios has been lights out since mid-May and should be able to do well vs. a team in the White Sox that is worlds better vs. lefties than righties.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Minnesota Twins vs. Alec Marsh
We don’t have much to go with Alec Marsh in the big leagues as he’s only made 1 start and that was against the Los Angeles Dodgers a week ago. What we do know though is that he got absolutely shelled in that outing. In just 4 innings of work, Marsh gave up 2 homers and 5 ER. He also managed to give up 6 hits and 4 walks for a WHIP of 2.5.
I’m not going to sit here and compare the 2 offenses and they are in different leagues, but the Minnesota Twins have a very competent lineup and can put up runs in spurts with the best of them. Just yesterday they put up a 9 spot against this same Royals team. They should be able to put up a healthy amount of runs again today in a pristine matchup.
With this stack, I’m going to prioritize getting the big 4 into this lineup. That’s Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, and Alex Kirilloff. Each of them has been hitting the ball extremely well over the last week and with me, recency bias outtakes everything else. Kepler has been the best of the 4 as he has a 1.251 OPS over the last week. It’s great to finally see him putting it together on a more consistent basis. He’s also just $2.8k tonight. Makes paying up for Buxton and Correa that much easier.
Kiriloff is another key value piece here. He’s been extremely productive as he has 7 hits in his last 18 AB. Most importantly though, Kirilloff is only $2.7k on DK tonight and opens up just a ton of breathing room for us money-wise. Joey Gallo is also in play here, but he’s more reserved for GPP only.
New York Mets vs. Tommy Henry
It hasn’t been often of late that I’ve gotten to write up my New York Mets. That changes today. The Mets are coming into this one with their first 3-game winning streak since 1990. They are also undefeated so far in the month of July. This all after having one of their worst months of baseball in team history. The thing is the offense was rarely the reason for them losing. They were still able to put up some runs, the bullpen just couldn’t keep the lead.
They get a strong matchup tonight vs. Tommy Henry. Henry over the last has pitched to a 4.61 ERA and a nearly 5 xFIP. He’s been giving up bombs at a pretty quick pace, with 6 in his last 27 innings of work. We’ll want hitters from both sides of the plate here as Henry has struggled against both righties and lefties.
I’m starting my Mets stack with Francisco Lindor and Alvarez. The Francisco brothers! After struggling throughout the month of June, Alvarez has really come alive in July. He’s homered in 2 of his 3 games and stands a really solid chance of taking Henry deep tonight. Lindor for the most part has played extremely well since the birth of his most recent child. He’s already up to 17 homers this season and 55 RBI. He’s one of the top offensive SS in the league and should smash in this spot.
We’ll also want the polar bear, Pete Alonso. Things haven’t come overly easy for him recently, but against a bad pitcher like Henry he should do well. Other bats to include here will be Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, and team MVP Tommy Pham.
As is always the case, the Braves are very much in play. Cal Quantrill has 3 straight negative point games. That’s pretty horrific. You know the normal plays here. I also like the Dodgers vs. Osvaldo Bido.
MLB DFS Summary
This is shaping up to be a fun slate of baseball. Some really good pitchers in great spots and some really clear spots for offense.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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