Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
We are back! After a nice break thanks to the All-Star Game, we are blessed with a massive 14-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. Teams are mostly rested and rotations are mostly reset. This should be a fun slate as we have a little bit of everything. We have good pitching, we have bad pitching, we have OK pitching.
Let’s dig and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Kenta Maeda vs. Oakland Athletics
Kenta Maeda is my SP1 tonight and I don’t think it’s very close. He has been, for the most part, lights out this season for the Twins. Over the last month, he’s dialed it up to a nearly 33% K rate and just a 1.59 ERA. His WHIP, an extremely important number, is under 1. That’s just phenomenal. He gets the pleasure of facing off against a terrible Oakland Athletics team.
Against righties this season, they’ve been bad. Like really bad. They have a 25% K rate and an OPS of just .643. Both of those are just horrendous numbers. Can the Athletics surprise? Yeah, they’ve done it a few times this season. I just don’t see them doing it tonight vs. a very good pitcher in Maeda. Maeda, at just $7.7k on DK, is an absolute lock in all of my lineups tonight.
Tyler Glasnow vs. Kansas City Royals
His price has slowly started to creep up there and he’s above $10k on DK for the third straight outing. IF we’re being honest, I would have paid upwards of $11k for Glasnow tonight, he’s been that good. He’s coming off 2 outings against 2 very solid teams in Atlanta and Seattle in which he still scored over 20 DK points. He has a nearly 40% K rate over his last 26 innings of work and the last time he faced the Royals, he finished with 30 DK points.
Like the A’s, this is a bad Royals team. Outside of Bobby Whitt, there’s little to get excited for Royals fans. My most likely pairing of pitchers tonight will be Maeda and Glasnow. Combined, they’ll cost us just $18k. That will leave us right at $4k per bat, which is really good considering the upside we’re getting with our pitchers.
Charlie Morton vs. Chicago White Sox
If you want to get fancy tonight, Charlie Morton is also an option on the mound. The White Sox are huge disappointments this season and are 16 games under .500 heading into the unofficial second half of the baseball season. Morton for himself has been pretty good of late. Over his last 27 innings of work, Morton has an ERA of 2.28 and a K rate of nearly 29%.
He’s also a massive favorite in this one so getting the win bonus here is almost a certainty. Again, I’m more than likely sticking with Maeda/Glasnow as my starters, but if you were to substitute Morton for one of them you won’t be that far off from the best pairing of pitchers tonight. He should, in theory, be able to dominate this bad White Sox team.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Alec Marsh
When in doubt, stack the Rays. Just kidding, the Rays are always in play, even though they kind of sputtered into the All-Star Break. The Rays get a great matchup tonight vs. Alec Marsh. Marsh has now made 2 starts in the big leagues. His first went very poorly against the Dodgers and his second was just about average against an average Twins lineup. Combined, he’s allowed 3 homers in 9 innings of work and he’s also allowed a WHIP of 1.78.
A WHIP that high is very bad and it means he puts on nearly 2 runners per inning. Against a really good Rays lineup, that’s not going to cut it and if he does it again, the Rays are going to put up a mammoth number. I’m not going to be concerned with splits tonight. Marsh has been pretty bad vs. both sides of the plate.
At this point, when it comes to the Rays you know the drill. We’ll want to prioritize getting guys like Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe, Luke Raley, and Isaac Paredes. Wander Franco is the premier name in this lineup, but I’ll be honest he’s been average this season in most offensive categories and I’m having a hard time justifying paying $5.7k for him tonight.
So I’ll stick with Aroz, Lowe, Raley, and Paredes as my core. Each of these 4 has home run potential tonight against Marsh. Other bats to consider here will be Jose Siri and Brandon Lowe. This is a great spot for the Rays tonight. Vegas currently has them close to 6. We’ll just need to keep an eye on the weather as it’s supposed to storm in KC.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Ryne Nelson
So far this season what we’ve learned about Ryne Nelson is that when he’s off, he’s really off. He’s coming off an outing that saw him give up 7 ER to the New York Mets. A couple of weeks before that, he gave up 5 to the Phillies. Over his last 32 innings of work, some of the numbers he has are baffling. 15 barrels, 5 homers, a 50% flyball rate, and just a 54% swing rate.
He’s not fooling hitters and they are swinging at balls they can hit. We’ll attack him tonight with a lineup for the Blue Jays that have been excellent vs. righties this season. They have a .751 OPS and a .166 ISO vs. them. Pretty solid numbers if you ask me.
Up and down this lineup we have some solid hitters. The first 2 bats I’m looking to lock in tonight here are going to be Home Run Derby Champion, Vladimir Guerrero. Over the last 30 days, he has a .213 ISO vs. righties and he’s facing off against a very beatable righty tonight.
After that, I’ll look to grab George Springer and Matt Chapman. Both guys have been really solid vs. righties this season and have actually turned it up a notch over the past 30 days. Springer has a .377 wOBA vs. them over the last 30 days and Chapman has a .346. Both guys should smash tonight! I also like Brandon Belt and Daulton Varsho.
As is always the case, the Braves are in play vs. Michael Kopech. His ERA is low over the last month, but his numbers indicate he should be getting smashed. He’ll get smashed tonight vs. the Braves. I like Acuna, Murphy, and Albies the most here.
MLB DFS Summary
Welcome back y’all. We have a full Friday slate. We’ll want to keep an eye on the weather as there are a handful of games that have thunderstorm potential.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
