Jared Levitt 
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll go through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Hump day! That’s right, it’s hump day and that normally means we have a split slate of games. We have 2 slates of MLB DFS today. I’m going to be focused on the day slate since it brings us 9 games compared to just 6 this evening. This slate looks really solid at first glance. The slate has some really solid mid tier pitching and also some really strong spots for offense.
Let’s dig in and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Bryce Miller vs. Oakland Athletics
I have thoroughly enjoyed picking on the Athletics this season. It hasn’t worked 100% of the time as they’ve shown glimpses of being a competent offense at times. That said, more often than not attacking them with pitching has been a profitable way to select one of our pitchers for the day or night. Today’s no different as Bryce Miller should be able to navigate his way through a below-average offense.
Miller won’t blow us away with strikeouts as his K rate is just 21% over the last month, but he should be able to get us some points. He has just 1 start in single-digit DK points over the last 2 months. With a date against a bad offense, that trend should continue where he’s in double-digit DK points. Love this spot for Miller today.
Kyle Gibson vs. Chicago White Sox
Kyle Gibson has been a little inconsistent of late. Over his last 4 starts, we’ve seen him get -6 DK points but we’ve also seen him dial it up to at least 27 DK points twice. As we’ve seen over the last 2 nights, this is a spot against a bad Chicago White Sox team and one that is exploitable. I don’t know if we see another 27 DK point outing for Gibson, but the veteran right-hander for the Orioles should be able to have a strong showing in this prime matchup.
Look for Gibson to be one of the higher scoring pitchers on a slate that is really lacking top-tier pitching. At just $7.8k on DK this afternoon, Gibson also makes for a strong value pitcher.
Other pitchers I like this afternoon are going to be Sonny Gray vs. Cleveland and Brandon Woodruff vs. Chicago.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Reid Detmers
The Philadelphia Phillies offense is clicking on all cylinders right now. They’ve scored 18 runs so far in this series and are primed to score even more thanks to a matchup vs. a pitcher in Reid Detmers who is really struggling right now. Over the last month, Detmers has an ERA of 8.68 and an xFIP of 6.46.
I’ve always thought he was overrated and even though he has a no-no under his belt, he’s still average at best. Surprisingly, lefties have been Detmers Achilles heal this season. They have a .253 ISO and a .406 wOBA vs. him. They are also striking out at a significantly lower clip vs. him than righties. Those numbers are 16% vs. 29%.
I don’t normally like to load up on lefties vs. lefties, but the matchup speaks for itself and the Phillies have some lefties that are pretty good. The 3 guys I’m focused on from the left side are going to be Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryson Stott. While Schwarber is a massive strike-out risk vs. lefties, he also has a healthy amount of power. His ISO vs. them this season is .267.
That’s actually the highest on the team. So is his 31% K rate, but we don’t need to harp on that because if you watch baseball you know that Schwarber likes to strike out. After the 3 lefties, I also want Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos. Turner has been a completely reborn player after getting a standing ovation for being bad. I’m locking him in today.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Dylan Cease
What has happened to Dylan Cease this season? Outside of his rookie season, Cease is having by far the worst season of his career. Last season his ERA was 2.20. This year it’s ballooned all the way up to 4.81. Once an ace-level pitcher, Cease is now someone we can almost regularly stack against. As a big Cease fan, it actually hurts my heart.
We’re not only attacking Cease today, we’re also attacking the White Sox bullpen. The Orioles have essentially torn apart that bullpen this series and have had multiple huge innings against them. Cease’s big weakness this season has been lefties. They have a .342 wOBA Vs. him and a .174 iso. Much better than what righties have done vs. him.
Knowing that I’m going to load up on guys like Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, and Ryan O’hearn. I suspect that Adley Rutschman gets a breather this afternoon, but should he play he’s also a priority for me. This is a hugely powerful lineup for the Orioles these days and they should be able to get to the 2023 version of Dylan Cease.
My favorite 2 of the bunch are Santander and Henderson. Both guys are putting up solid seasons vs. righties and both guys can easily dump a ball on Eutaw Street today. Other than these guys, I also like Cedric Mullins, Adam Frazier, and Ryan Mountcastle. Nothing in life is a guarantee, but this is a great spot for the Orioles.
I also like Seattle vs. Zach Neal and Toronto vs. Patrick Corbin.
MLB DFS Summary
Day baseball is the best baseball and we have a great day slate today.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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