Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have an 8 game main slate of MLB DFS to navigate through on Fanduel.
My write up today will consist only of tonight’s main slate and is tailored to GPP’s. We have what’s shaping up to be a pitcher’s duel out west in San Diego and some really nice hitting targets.
With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Lance Lynn ($11k) vs. Detroit Tigers – The Tigers have been playing much better ball of late. It’s still not an overly imposing offense and when I have a pitcher like Lynn on the mound I’m going to attack them.
The projected lineup that Lynn is expected to face off against tonight has a 25% K rate and just a .120 ISO. Lynn has a very good chance of overpowering this lineup and that’s exactly what I think he’s going to do. He’s pricier than he’s been for a while but this matchup presents an upside opportunity for him.
Yu Darvish ($11.5k) vs. New York Mets – My Mets have somehow held on to first with a patched together offense over the past few weeks. They lost one of their hottest bats yesterday to a hammy injury in Jonathan Villar. If he sits I like this play even more.
Darvish’s main pitch type is his cutter as he throws it more than 38% of the time to both righties and lefties. This is a pitch the Mets have struggled with as only Lindor and Pillar have whiff rates less than 30% over the past few years. This has the makings of a long night for the Mets.
Griffin Canning ($8.4k) vs. Seattle Mariners – Pitching isn’t very deep tonight. After the top 2 guys, and maybe Taijuan Walker, there really aren’t many options I’m in love with tonight. Thankfully, we have the Mariners to pick on.
Can the Mariners have a random good game at any point? Yes, they certainly can. But the chances of them having a poor game are far greater than them having a good game.
Canning already faced this team once this year striking out 9 in only 5 innings of work. The Mariners on the year just aren’t doing much damage with .649 OPS and .287 wOBA to righties. A guy like Canning is never a sure a thing, but there’s a good chance of Canning have a solid performance against a bad Mariners team.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Kansas City Royals vs. J.A. Happ – I make it a point to attack Happ any chance I get. Especially with a right handed lineup like the Royals. To righties this year, Happ has given up a 46% fly ball rate and a 35% hard hit rate. It is a recipe for disaster for him.
I’m going to be prioritizing the usual suspects in this lineup. Whitt Merrifield ($3.2k), Carlos Santana ($3.5k), and Salvador Perez ($2.9k) all have a long history of success vs. lefties and with a gas can of a lefty on the hill tonight, they should feast. If he’s in the cleanup spot tonight, Edward Olivares ($2k) makes a fine addition to complete this stack.
Miami Marlins vs. Tyler Anderson – This is far from a sexy pic, but I really like the matchup here. Anderson has really struggled against righties this year and he’s facing a lineup that has a lot of power (and K ability) against lefties.
On the year Anderson is giving up a 41% fly ball rate, a .231 ISO, and a 40% hard hit rate to right handed bats. Starling Marte ($3.5k), Jesus Aguilar ($2.7k), Garrett Cooper ($2.5k), and Adam Duvall ($2.8k) all have ISO’s north of .200 this year against lefties.
This team very well could K a bunch of times tonight, but I have no doubt they’ll also mix in some homers. Far from a safe stack, but there’s a good chance they go overlooked tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Seth Frankoff – If Frankoff ultimately gets the nod tonight, I really like this spot for the Brewers. The Brew Crew have been playing much better ball of late. They finally have a healthy Yelich and the WillY Adames trade has so far really worked out for them.
Frankoff on the year has not been good. He has a 7.02 xFIP and a low K rate of 16%. I’m going to focus on the lefties of Milwaukee as that’s where Frankoff’s sweet spot is as he’s giving up a 62% ground ball rate to righties. Against lefties he’s giving up a 41% fly ball rate and a .286 ISO.
The Brewers will most likely throw out 3 lefties at the top of the order tonight with Kolten Wong ($3k), Daniel Vogelbach ($2.1k), and Christian Yelich ($3.9k).
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
This is going to be a challenging slate. We have a couple of top arms, 1 carries risk as he’s facing a first place team that has been pretty solid over the first couple of months even though they’ve been missing major pieces. We also don’t have the usual power house offenses. That said, it should be fun.
Good luck today and tonight and hope to see you in the green!
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