Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Monday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a larger than normal 13 game Monday main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
For a 13 game slate, today’s pitching is about as bad as you’ll see all year. Each arm today brings a ton of risk. With each arm bringing a ton of risk, it also means that we’ll have plenty of bats to pick from.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Tyler Glasnow ($10.8k) vs. Chicago White Sox – I don’t normally make it a practice to attack the White Sox. The entire lineup is filled with power. Glasnow is however the best pitcher on the slate.
Over the past 30 days he has a 2.74 xFIP and a 30.8% K rate, which is down a bit from his 36% k rate for the year. While the White Sox do have a ton of power, they’re also striking out at a near 25% clip to righties this year. While not overly high, it still means there are some K’s in there for Glasnow.
Adam Wainwright ($8k) vs. Miami Marlins – I told you pitching was bad tonight. This is more a testament to the Marlins lineup than it is Wainwright. Marlins on the year are striking out nearly 26% of the time to righties and not hitting for much power with a .135 ISO.
While Wainwright at this point in his career isn’t going to strike out 10 guys a night, he’s someone that’s going to be resourceful enough to get you more than a handful of K’s while not completely blowing up against a lineup like the Marlins. His pitch mix of mostly sinkers and curveballs matches up really well with the Marlins. Not a sexy pick, but I think it’s a pick that will open up salary for you on a night where there are a ton of solid hitting environments.
Lance Lynn ($11k) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – I will most likely be picking between the first 2 guys I mentioned. That said Lynn is one of the best and most consistent arms on the slate. He’s surpassed 40 points in 5 of his last 6 starts.
His match-up carries a ton of risk as the Rays bring a lot of power vs. righties. While they bring power, they also strike out more than 26% of the time. If he can somehow limit the damage of the long ball tonight, there could be some upside for him tonight.
Again, not even remotely a safe pick due to the match-up, but there isn’t a single safe arm tonight. He’s my third ranked option on the night.
MLB DFS: The Bats
There is a Coors game tonight. I wouldn’t blame you for stacking that game. On a night like tonight where there are so many offenses faces poor pitching you should be able to differentiate yourself from the field by fading that game.
Oakland Athletics vs. Dylan Bundy – Bundy has been really bad this year, but he’s been especially bad over the past 30 days. For the year, his xFIP is hovering around 4.4. If we look at a more recent sample size though, it sky rockets up to 5.49 over his last handful of starts.
His FB rate is the highest it’s been since 2018, but what’s the most troubling with him is that his HR/FB rate is the highest of his career. In his last 17 innings he’s given up 8 homers. Is that bad? It seems bad.
He’s been pretty impartial to both righties and lefties as his ISO is over .230 to both sides of the plate. While my slight lean will be to the guys like Matt Olson ($3.8K) and Mitch Moreland ($2.3k) who have the platoon advantage tonight, there’s no reason to shy away from the righties in this one.
New York Mets vs. Jake Arrietta – When Arrietta is on the mound I make it a point to stack against him. His xFIP this season is north of 5. That’s not a short sample at this point as we’re midway through June. To have a xFIP that high this far into the year means you’re struggling at the Major League level to get guys out.
His ISO to both sides of the plate is over .300. Villar ($3.2k), Lindor ($3k), Alonso ($4.2k), and Smith ($2.6k) are my main targets here. But honestly, any guy in this lineup should be able to square up Jake at this point.
Kansas City Royals vs. Matthew Boyd – What I said about Arrietta stands true for Boyd. His xFIP on the season is also greater than 5. He’s struggling to get guys out this year.
Boyd has especially struggled vs. righties this year. His FB rate is over 46% and his hard rate is almost 43%. My favorite guy in this lineup is Salvador Perez ($3k) as he crushes left handed pitching. I will also sprinkle in some Merrifield ($3.7k) and Soler ($2.8k). Royals have as good of a match-up as anyone out there tonight.
Another team that I really like tonight is the Cubs. They’re facing off against Peterson who has been abysmal in his last two outings. If this game plays tonight it very well may be the top scoring game of the night as it has two awful pitchers going. There is risk though and since I also wrote up the Mets in that game I didn’t want to give you 2 out of 3 teams that are at risk of not playing.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
Pitching is awful tonight but we have plenty of bats we can focus on. I don’t think you’ll need to go to Coors tonight and fading that game gives you an opportunity to differentiate yourself from the crowd.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!
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