Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 nice sized slates. A 6 gamer at 2:10 and an 8 game main slate.
While we have more pitching options than we’ve had over the last couple of days, some of them aren’t in the best spots and will carry risk. We do however have some clear cut stacks that we’ll want to use.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Early Slate Aces
Freddy Peralta ($9.2k) vs. Cincinnati Reds– Peralta will be my top pitcher on the early slate. While the match-up is a tough one, Peralta has already proven a couple of times this season he can handle the Reds lineup. He struck out 13 Reds between 8 innings of work in the 2 starts. Peralta has had a great campaign so far this year. He has a 37% K rate this year and it’s not often we can get a pitcher with this type of K rate less than $10k.
Tarik Skubal ($8.5k) vs. Kansas City Royals – At the start of the year, I would have picked the Royals as one of my top stacks. Skubal has really come into his own over the past month and a half.
Let’s take a look at what he’s done over the past 30 days. He has a 38% K rate which over the same period is the top mark of any pitcher on the early slate. His xFIP is 2.73 which is also the top mark over that time period. This was all done against lineups that normally do well against lefties. He’s faced the White Sox twice in that stretch. Facing the Royals is never a sure thing as they’re stingy, but I really like Skubal’s chances of a strong outing today.
Brady Singer ($7.8k) vs. Detroit Tigers – This is far from a safe pick but one that may work in our favor as we try to get the expensive bats in. Tigers are a tough team to get right when pitching against. I thought Minor was a sure thing last night and he wasn’t.
That said, chasing K’s against them is still a thing as they’re striking out at a 27% clip against righties. Singer isn’t a high strike out pitcher but he’s cheap and gives us bat flexibility. If we can get 5-6 K’s from him today and a QS he’ll by far pay off his salary.
MLB DFS: The Early Slate Bats
Washington Nationals vs. Chase De Jong – De Jong has been absolutely brutal on the year. He has a 6.50 xFIP through 3 starts. He’s giving up a ton of contact to both sides of the plate so we don’t really need to worry about platoon splits.
His ISO to both sides of the plate so far this season are both over .300. Kyle Schwarber ($3.5k) has been on a pretty nice run over the past week and with his shift to the lead-off spot will be a main target of mine. Trea Turner ($4.1k) and Juan Soto ($4.4k) also make fine additions to this stack.
San Diego Padres vs. Kyle Freeland – Padres have, for all intents and purposes, underwhelmed this season vs. lefties. While they aren’t striking out much against lefties, they’re also not really hitting the ball for power either.
Kyle Freeland may be what gets them going. Freeland hasn’t pitched much this season as his year started at the end of May. The sample size that we’ve seen this year has been brutal though. In his last 9 innings of work he’s given up 13 runs. For a ground-ball pitcher, he’s given up a lot of homers. 30% of his fly balls this year have left the park.
Padres disappointed last night scoring only 4 runs. There’s a very real chance they surpass that total in the first inning today. Freeland’s main pitch to righties is his change-up. Both Pham ($4k) and Tatis ($5k) have strong ISO’s against this pitch from lefties.
Lefties have also crushed Freeland this year with a .412 ISO and a .582 wOBA. That brings back Hosmer ($3.9k) and Grisham ($4.3k) into the conversation. Look for the Padres to put up a typical Coors numbers today.
Chicago White Sox vs. Ryan Yarbrough – I haven’t gone to the White Sox vs. a lefty in a while but this match-up is setting up really well for them. Yarbrough hasn’t been bad this year. He’s been pretty good and his last 2 outings have been excellent.
The reason I’m going here though is that he strikes out batters from the right side far less. His K rate vs. lefties is 27% but it drops down big time to 18% against righties. White Sox today will more than likely have 9 guys bat from the right side of plate.
Two guys I’m going to try to prioritize are the really cheap bats of Adam Engel ($2.2k) and Yermin Mercedes ($2.7k). While all the righties should be in play today, those guys specifically will help you fit in the big bats from the Padres.
I do also like the Athletics quite a bit. I debated putting them ahead of the White Sox due to the Rays never really giving up a huge number. Canning has been a reverse splits and is giving up far more hard contact to righties than lefties. While I expect the lefties to do well here also, if playing the A’s I’d prioritize getting Canha ($3.5k) and Chapman ($3.2k) into your stacks.
MLB DFS: The Early Slate Wrap Up
Something to always keep in mind for early slates is that lineups could get a little funky. What is a good match-up early, may change to bad match-up once lineups are released. Don’t get married to your lineup until the teams start releasing theirs.
MLB DFS: The Main Slate Aces
Jacob Degrom ($12.2k) vs. Chicago Cubs – The only con that I have for Degrom is that there’s a very good possibility he doesn’t go past 6 or 7 innings. With Degrom though, he can put up a big number in that type of short outing. Last time out he threw 80 pitches in 6 innings and still scored 58 FD points. He’s the best pitcher in the game with a great match-up tonight. There’s not much else that needs to be said.
Clayton Kershaw ($10.2k) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – If you aren’t using Degrom tonight, a good second option would be Kershaw. While the Phillies are mostly healthy nowadays, they still have a lineup that strikes out.
On the year they are striking out more than 27% of the time to lefties. With Kershaw not being an ordinary lefty, we know that there is some upside with Kershaw and his 30% K rate for the year. Another thing going for Kershaw tonight is that the Phillies get a serious park downgrade with the game being in LA and not Citizens.
Aaron Civale ($9k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – Should we expect another 67 point performance out Civale tonight? Nope, probably not in the cards. More often than not though, Civale has been living in the 40 point or greater neighborhood this year and that’s probably a more realistic target.
While the Orioles lineup has been hot and cold over the past few weeks, it’s been more cold when a strong righty is on the mound. Tonight we have a strong righty. My build tonight will be tailored around Degrom and Kershaw but if you’re looking to save a bit Civale is a good third option.
MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats
Atlanta Braves vs. Garrett Richards – There was a stretch earlier in the year where Richards looked to be back to his younger self. Since then it’s just been a downward trend in his performance with his last outing being his worst.
That downward spiral should continue tonight with a match-up against the Braves. Braves have been dominant vs. righties this year. Acuna ($4.5k), Freeman ($4.2k), and Riley ($2.8k) all have wOBA’s over .380 against righties this year. If you want to add a cheap piece to the puzzle Almonte ($2.2k) has also crushed right handed pitching, albeit in a much smaller sample.
Houston Astros vs. Jordan Lyles – Astros will probably be the chalk as they get to face none other than Jordan Lyles. Lyles has a near 5 xFIP on the year with a 47% hard hit rate. Lyles has actually been worse to righties this year with a .229 ISO and 50% hard hit rate.
With his pitch mix of mostly fastballs to lefties both Alvarez ($3.7k) and Tucker ($3.4k) should have great nights. On the right hand side the pitch of choice is the slider for Lyles. While I like Altuve ($4k) and Bregman ($3.5k), it’s Gurriel ($3.1k) that I’ll target the most as he’s the cheapest of the 3 and has a .228 ISO against this pitch.
Minnesota Twins vs. Justus Sheffield – I never seem to get the Twins right, especially Donaldson. I’ll play him all week, then when I don’t play him he gets 2 homers. I think I’ll get them right tonight.
Sheffield has had an up and down season so far. He’s had a couple of good outings, but then will have a down outing. There’s been no consistency from him. Tonight he’s taking on a tough opponent as the Twins have been really good against lefties. They have a .772 OPS and a .199 ISO.
Twins will throw out a bunch of righties tonight and on the year Sheffield is giving up a 50% hard hit rate to that side of the plate. Both Donaldson ($3.6k) and Sano ($3.2k) have a bunch of success against the sinker which is Sheffield’s pitch of choice to righties. If you need a cheap bat since you’re going with Degrom, Jeffers ($2k) is still min priced and opens up some salary relief for you.
MLB DFS: The Main Slate Wrap Up
Two of the best pitchers of the last few decades are on the mound tonight. Enjoy using them in your lineups and enjoy watching them pitch.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!
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