Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Aces and Bases. Tonight we have a nice sized 10 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. With a small slate comes a limited pool of options.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Shohei Ohtani ($11.6k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – This is more than I’d like to pay for Ohtani but of the all the aces pitching tonight he gets by far the softest match up. The Orioles have been one of the worst teams against righties this year.
The projected lineup tonight for the Orioles has a 24% K rate against righties this year and just a .155 ISO. They’ll more than likely throw out 6 righties and that’s right in Ohtani’s wheelhouse as he has a 34% K rate against them this year.
Ohtani very well could be the highest scoring pitcher on the night. His price is the only thing holding me back from saying , “I’m all in”.
Josiah Gray ($8k) vs. Miami Marlins – My cheap arm tonight will be Gray and I doubt I look cheaper than him. Gray gets a great match up against a weak Marlins lineup. Over the past week the Marlins have not generated much offense. They have a 26% K rate and just a handful of barrels.
I’m looking here because of Gray’s swing and miss stuff. Of all the pitchers on the hill tonight only Giolito has a higher swinging strike rate than Gray over the past month. He also has a near 26% K rate over the past month.
Gray has been able to navigate his way through some really tough opponents so far with his last 3 outings against the Braves twice and the Blue Jays once. While he didn’t go completely unscathed in those outings, he did score at least 28 FD points in each of them. It will be fun to see what he can do against a mediocre lineup tonight.
Lucas Giolito ($9.8k) vs. Toronto Blue Jays – This isn’t a safe pick because it’s the Toronto Blue Jays. Wanted to get that out of the way. That said, the Blue Jays are not clicking on all cylinders right now and Dylan Cease was able to take full advantage of that last night.
Gio has been pretty good of late with a 29.5% K rate and 3.12 xFIP over the past month. The Blue Jays are a very righty heavy lineup. Gio has seen his K rate climb to 32% against righties over the last month.
The Blue Jays will see a decent amount of sliders tonight. If Gio’s slider is on tonight he should have a solid night. Up and down the Blue Jays lineup they have whiff rates over 30% against the pitch. He’s my high risk/high reward pick of the night.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Los Angeles Angels vs. Dean Kremer – I’m going right back to the well tonight with the Angels. The two names I’ve seen to be next in line to stop the bleeding for the Orioles are Chris Ellis and Dean Kremer. Ellis has only pitched in one game in the majors this year and it was against the Orioles. Outside of that he’s struggled at AAA this year.
Kremer has struggled at the major league level. With either pitcher we’ll hope to get the Orioles bullpen early as it’s overworked and bad. My main focus here as of now will be the guys hitting the ball the best.
Brandon Marsh ($2.5k) is the hottest of the bunch with a .966 OPS over the past week. He’ll be a lock in my lineup. This entire lineup will be in play tonight as they are cheap and in a great spot. Only Jared Walsh ($3k) is at $3k or higher tonight.
San Francisco Giants vs. Taijuan Walker – Boy a lot has changed for the Mets over the past 30 days! The Giants steamrolled the Mets last night and I just don’t see how they don’t’ do it again tonight.
Walker, outside of one start to the Dodgers, has been absolutely brutal over the past month. His xFIP is 5.14, his fly ball rate 46%, and his hard hit rate is 41%. The match up for him tonight couldn’t be any worse either.
Giants over the past 30 days have been crushing righties. The top of the lineup in Wade ($3.4k) and Belt ($3.1k) have really been setting the tone. They each have ISO’s over .311 against righties over the past month. They’ll be my anchors to the Giants stack tonight.
Almost Mets 3B Kris Bryant ($3.9k) and Alex Dickerson ($2.5k) have also been hitting righties hard and will more than likely close out my Giants stack. This Giants lineup is deep and against a struggling Mets team tonight will again put up a big number.
Boston Red Sox vs. Baily Ober – Ober hasn’t been awful recently, but he’s still giving up a ton of hard contact. Over the past 30 days his hard contact is above 38%. This Red Sox lineup does not lineup very well for Ober.
Ober is mostly a fastball pitcher. He throws it a ton to both sides, but even more so to lefties. The Red Sox have a handful of guys that just love hitting the heat. The guy that really comes to mind is Kyle Schwarber ($3.5k).
On the year he has a .673 slugging % against fastballs and a 61% hard hit rate. He’s my lock here. I’ll surround him with the likes of Devers ($4k) and Renfroe ($3.6k). Both guys have been crushing fastballs as well this year. Look for the Red Sox to put up another big number tonight!
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
We have a decent amount of pitching options tonight and I’ve provided my favorite in the high and medium price ranges. My favorite combo with bats is going to look very similar to last night. I’ll use a combo of Angels and Red Sox as they mesh well together and are in great spots.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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