Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 15 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
With today’s slate we have a little bit of everything. Some great pitching with solid match-ups and strong offenses facing some poor pitching.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Robbie Ray ($10.8k) vs. Seattle Mariners – Robbie Ray draws a fantastic match-up tonight with Mariners coming to Buffalo. Ray is one of my favorite GPP pitchers in the league right now. Every time out he has double digit K potential.
Over his past 30 day he’s been especially dominant with a 36% K rate and just a 2.58 xFIP. With Ray on the mound there’s always the potential for the occasional long ball as he’s given up 4 in his last 28 innings of work. That said, with the match-up tonight I’m not overly worried as the Mariners have really struggled this season. Against lefties they have a 27% K rate to go with a wOBA that is below .300.
What has me sold on Ray tonight is that the Marines really struggle against sliders. Outside of Crawford and Moore, the entire projected lineup tonight has a whiff rate over 40% to left handed sliders. This is a great spot for Ray tonight and I’m all in.
Brandon Woodruff ($11.4k) vs. Chicago Cubs – Another pitcher that draws an absolutely beautiful match-up is Brandon Woodruff. While he’s pricey, he’s facing a team that has struck out almost 36% of the time over the past week. That is significantly higher than any other team as the White Sox come in second at 29%.
Woodruff, like Ray, has been dominant over the past 30 days. His K rate is greater than 31% and his xFIP is sitting at 2.68. Peralta was able to strikeout 8 Cubs in just 6 innings of work. With Woodruff being a more efficient pitcher than Peralta, I have no doubt in my mind that a replication of last night’s outing is the floor for Woodruff. While I’m siding with Ray tonight due to the $600 savings, Woodruff is a very close second.
Jose Urquidy ($9.5k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – Orioles put up a big number last night. They do that from time to time. Most of that was against a suspect bullpen and a pitcher a couple years past his prime. Tonight the Orioles will be facing Urquidy who has really turned things around over the past 30 days.
While his xFIP on the year is 4.54, over the past 30 days it has come down to 3.5. His last outing was one of his best of the year, going 7 innings with 6 K’s and no runs. Who was it against? This same Orioles team in a much better hitting environment.
While it’s always risky to use a pitcher facing a team just 5 days later, Urquidy’s pitch mix leads me to believe we should expect a similar outing. Urquidy mostly throws sliders to righties and it’s a pitch that the Orioles have not done well against. Look for Urquidy to continue his stretch of 40 point outings.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Cleveland Indians vs. Jose Urena – Urena is one of my favorite pitchers to attack as he’s really struggled this year, and even more so of late. Over the past 30 days his xFIP is sitting at 7.29 compared to 5.37 on the year. Nothing is working for him right now.
While he’s normally a groundball pitcher, he’s been giving up a lot more fly balls of late. In his last 14 innings of work he’s given up 4 homers. For a groundball pitcher, that’s quite a bit!
The three guys that really standout in this lineup that have excelled at hitting the sinker are Jose Ramirez ($3.9k), Eddie Rosario ($3.1k), and Bobby Bradley ($3.5k). All three have ISO’s over .230 and low whiff rates to the pitch. I’d recommend including Amed Rosario ($2.6k) to the stack as he’s cheap and hits near the top of the order.
San Diego Padres vs. Tony Santillan – So far Santillan has been able to skate by with limited damage. Regression is going to happen and I do believe it happens tonight against the Padres powerful lineup.
Here’s why I think regression is going to happen. In his first 13 innings of work Santillan has a BB/9 of 5.27, a FB rate of 51%, a LOB % of 95.7, and a hard hit rate of nearly 38%. So he’s walking guys, giving up a ton of fly balls, and getting hit hard. With metrics like that it’s only a matter of time.
Padres present a worst case scenario for him as they’ve been pretty good against righties. They have a .729 OPS and a wOBA of .318. We’re talking about a small sample size, but he’s been especially bad to lefties as they have a 50% hard hit rate and 50% fly ball rate. Cronenworth ($3.3k), Hosmer ($2.7k), and Grisham ($2.7k) should highlight any Padres stack you roll out tonight. Tatis ($4.7K) is always in play too, just very expensive.
Oakland Athletics vs. Mike Foltynewicz – Love the A’s to put up a big number tonight. With Folty on the mound we know that at least 1 A’s player will hit a homer. It’s almost a given as Folty is giving up a homer once every 3 innings. That’s a pretty high rate, highest of any pitcher on the slate.
His match-up tonight against the A’s is not an easy one. The A’s on the year have been really good against righties. They’re hitting for power with a .174 ISO and an OPS of .726. Folty is giving up a ton of fly balls to lefties this year so I’m going to center my stacks around both Tony Kemp ($2.4k) and Matt Olson ($4.2k). Both guys profile extremely well against Folty. If Moreland ($2.5k) is in the lineup he too profiles very well tonight.
I didn’t write up the Angles but Ohtani ($4.3k) and Walsh ($3.4k) should both homer tonight against Taillon.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
We’ll need to keep an eye on the weather tonight as there’s a chance of storms in most of the games on the east coast. This should be a fun slate though as we have both solid pitching in great match-up’s and really poor pitching that will be heavily exploited.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
