Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 15 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
At first glance the pitching tonight is not much better, but after looking at the data we have a few pitchers that are in decent spots. We also have my 3 favorite pitchers to pick on – the law firm of Harvey, Happ, and Chi Chi.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Mike Minor ($8.8k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Tigers teed off on Keller last night. Tonight they face a much more daunting task as they face off against Mike Minor. Over the past 30 days Minor has been very good. His K rate is nearly 30% and his xFIP and ERA pretty much align in the mid 3’s.
His match-up with Tigers is a good one. While the Tigers have shown flashes of being a half decent offense recently, they’re still striking out a ton. They have a 30% K rate vs. lefties with a .123 ISO. Both those numbers indicate they have a rough time against lefties.
Minor has already faced the Tigers twice this year with a combined 17 K’s. Really like the spot here for Minor and his less than $9k salary will leave us room to get some of the bigger bats that will be in play.
Taijuan Walker ($8k) vs. Chicago Cubs – Walker has become one of the steals of the offseason. He’s shown flashes of brilliance this year with his best outing coming against the Orioles last week.
His K rate over the past 30 days is hovering around 27% and his xFIP is below 4. So we are getting a pitcher with a more than halfway decent K rate at only $8k.
His match-up isn’t half bad either. On the year the Cubs are striking out at around the 25% mark. While they have some guys with pop, they’re still a very weak lineup compared to years past. Vegas has the Mets as a big favorite today. I’m going to agree with them and try to work Walker into my lineup.
Hyun Jin Ryu ($8.5k) vs. New York Yankees – The Yankees have really underwhelmed against lefties this year. We’ve seen them get dominated by the likes of Matz, Skubal, Yarbrough, and Hill.
Ryu has had a couple of difficult outings in a row. In his last 2 outings he’s only had 4 K’s. He faced really tough lineups in those game, facing off against the White Sox and Astros. This is a great bounce back spot for him.
He faced the Yankees earlier this year and walked away with 7 K’s in 6 innings of work. While facing the Yankees is never 100% safe, attacking them with lefties this year hasn’t been a bad strategy. I wouldn’t go all in with Ryu, but this is a good spot for him.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Much like last night, we have a healthy amount of offenses in really good spots today. I made the decision early on yesterday to fade the Coors game. I didn’t like the match-up that either team had. Today’s a different story.
The Padres have a great match-up vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez. He’s arguably one of the worst pitchers in baseball. They are priced up for the match-up though. Tatis ($5k) is the most expensive you’ll typically see a batter on FD. You really couldn’t have asked for a better match-up for the Padres in Coors.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Brett Anderson – The Reds get to take on a sinker ball pitcher today in Anderson. We know they have a handful of guys in their lineup that excel vs. this pitch.
Castellanos ($4.3k), Stephenson ($2.6k), and Suarez ($3.1k) all have ISO’s over .200 against this pitch from lefties. This should be a tough day for Anderson who has been pretty bad this year. He has a 5.19 xFIP this year and a 50% hard hit rate. Reds are going to be one of my main targets tonight.
Seattle Mariners vs. J.A. Happ – When Happ is on the mound the batters from the other team automatically enter my player pool. He’s been absolutely awful this year. His xFIP is almost 6. We’re halfway through June. His xFIP being that high is not based on a bad outing or two, but a full season worth of bad outings.
I’m going to focus on the righties here because that’s really where Happ struggles. His FB rate vs. righties is 48% and his hard hit rate is 40%. He’s giving up a ton of bad contact to righties. The guys you want to look at are Haniger ($3k) and France ($2.6k). If you also need a cheap 2B, you could do a lot worse than the spot that Moore ($2.4k) is in. Mariners tonight will make a nice compliment to your Reds or Padres stack.
Cleveland Indians vs. Matt Harvey – Of all the pitchers on the hill today, no one is giving up homers at a quicker pace than Harvey has over the past 30 days. He’s given up 7 in just 15.1 innings of work.
To start the year it really seemed that Harvey had figured out a new way to pitch. If we look at recent outings, we know that was just a mirage. Harvey is giving up a 44% FB rate to lefties and a 40% hard hit rate. I’m going to focus my attack of Harvey today on the middle of the lineup since that where the lefties sit.
JRam ($4.1k), Eddie Rosario ($2.8k), and Bradley ($3.4k) should have a field day today. Well at least in the first inning since I don’t think Harvey lasts longer than 3-4 innings.
Another gas can that we can attack today is Tyler Anderson vs. the Nationals. Think Zimmerman ($2.6k) and Treat Turner ($3.6k) as Anderson is far worse against righties. Giants lefties vs. Martin is also an exploitable spot. Martin is giving up a 60% hard hit rate to lefties. Brandon Crawford ($2.9k) is way too cheap for that match-up and what he potentially brings to the table every game. Same could be said for Yastrzemski ($2.7k).
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
Just like last night, there’s a ton of offense to go around tonight. Pitching, IMO, is a bit better tonight as the above average pitchers are in better positions to succeed.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!
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