Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a big 13 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
After last night’s slate where the pitching options were scarce, we have ourselves a slate tonight with some of the top arms in the game. This should be as fun of a slate as we’ve had all year.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Jacob Degrom ($12k) vs. Colorado Rockies – He’s back! After about a 2 week stint on the IL with some “right side discomfort” Degrom returns to take the mound against the Rockies. I wasn’t going to bore you w/ the details of what Degrom has done this season but I’m going to. He has a 46% k rate, a 1.77 xFIP, a .6 WHIP, and a 21% whiff rate.
We’re witnessing a generational pitcher and he’s facing off against a team that has struggled outside of Coors. Against righties this year Colorado has just a 69 wRC+ and a .672 OPS. While their K rate is only 23.5%, I’m not concerned with that because those types of things go out the door when facing a pitcher like Degrom. He’s expensive, but he’s the best pitcher in the game.
Corbin Burnes ($10.2k) vs. San Diego Padres – Padres aren’t normally a team we attack with a pitcher. Burnes isn’t a normal pitcher. It’s not often that a pitcher with a 44.7% K rate has the 2nd best K rate on the slate, but that’s where we are tonight.
Burnes has been an absolute stud this year. He has at least 9 K’s in every start this year while only allowing 2 walks for the entire season. We saw last night that the Padres can be “had” with Woodruff throwing a gem. There’s no reason to think that Burnes can’t do the same tonight.
Joe Musgrove ($8.4k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers – We’ve seen Musgrove have some big games this season. While his no hitter will be the most memorable, his last outing was just as impressive. He K’d 11 and only allowed 2 hits through 7.
For the season he has a near 35% K rate and a 15% whiff rate. And he comes at a steep discount from the clear cut aces tonight. The match-up is really good too. The Brewers have struggled this season against righties. They have a K rate of 26.2% and just a .286 wOBA. Now most of this has been done w/ Yelich on the DL. Even with Yelich back, he doesn’t scare me off of Musgrove. If you aren’t going with one of the top guns tonight, I don’t think you’ll miss a beat by going down to Musgrove.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Brad Keller – .749 OPS, .179 ISO, .327 wOBA, 114 wRC+. This is some of what the Rays have done vs. righties this season. They are one of my favorite stacks on the night. They’re facing off a pitcher in Keller who, while he hasn’t been awful, hasn’t been all that good this year. He’s pitching to a 4.52 xFIP, a high WHIP of 1.84, and a 17.6% HR to FB ratio.
With his propensity to put runners on while also giving up the long ball, it’s a recipe for disaster. Keller’s splits are pretty even against both righties and lefties. He’s giving up about 45% hard contact and an ISO north of .200. My favorite plays here are Randy Arozarena ($3.8k), Austin Meadows ($3.9k), Brandon Lowe ($3.5k), and Joe Wendle ($3.3k).
New York Yankees vs. Steven Matz – After starting out the season strong, Matz has come back down to earth. Well, he’s come back down to the Matz we all grew to know during his time in New York. In his last 5 starts, he has 3 outings of giving up 5 or more earned runs. With a match-up against the Yankees this very well could make it 4 out of his last 6.
Yankees have a bunch of guys at the top of the lineup that all do very well against lefties. DJ LeMahieu ($3k), Luke Voit ($2.6k), and Aaron Judge ($3.7k) all have ISO’s over .200 and wOBA’s greater than .330. Two other guys in this lineup who are also cheap and profile extremely well against Matz’s sinker are Gleyber Torres ($2.7k) and Gary Sanchez ($2.5k). This lineup is way too cheap for the match-up and will help you fit in one of the aces.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Hyeon-jong Yang – A lineup that should do well tonight is the Angels. Vegas likes them too with a 4.72 implied run total. They get to face off against Yang who has pitched to a 5.05 xFIP this season while only K’ing batters at a 17.4% clip. Yang does tend to give up more GB’s to righties but he still has a 33% fly ball rate and with his lack of swing and miss stuff I see this being a tough match-up against a heavy right handed lineup.
My targets here will be Shohei Ohtani ($4.1k), Anthony Rendon ($3.6k), and Justin Upton ($3k). Juan Lagares ($2k) would also be a nice addition to this stack as he is min-priced on FD.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
This has the makings of a super fun slate tonight. We have 2 of the best arms in the business going tonight with good match-ups. We also have 2 of the best pitchers of the past 10 years going in Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer. This should be a pitching dominant slate and if we pick the right bats we should see really nice success.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!
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