Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel.
We have a couple of guys that are in the ace or near ace category to go along with some bats that are in some really nice match-ups tonight.
With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Brandon Woodruff ($11k) vs. Kansas City Royals – I don’t make it a habit of picking on the Royals. They can have a pretty stingy offense but against righties this season they’ve been pretty mediocre. They are sporting a 26% K rate, a .283 wOBA, and a wRC+ of just 77. These metrics tell us they are a very attackable team, especially when going against a stud like Woodruff.
If it wasn’t for Corbin Burnes, Woodruff would be the ace of the Brewers staff. He has a 33% K rate, a 2.7 xFIP, and has only given up 3 homers in 49 innings of work this season. With the Royals struggles against righties this season, I see no reason why Woodruff won’t continue his dominance tonight. In 3 of his last 4 starts he’s scored over 50 FD points. There’s a good chance he makes 4 out of 5 tonight.
Zack Wheeler ($10.4k) vs. Miami Marlins – Wheeler has shown massive upside at times this year with multiple games over 50. Tonight he has a match-up that should afford him the opportunity to have one of those upside games. Marlins for the season, just like the Royals, are K’ing at a 26% clip this year to righties. They have also struggled to garnish much power to righties.
Over his last couple of starts Wheeler has shown an increase in his slider usage. If he keeps it up tonight, he should have one of those ceiling games. In looking at the Marlins projected lineup, it’s a pitch the team does not project well against. Not a single batter has a whiff rate under 32% and most are in the mid 40% range. I really like Wheeler’s chances to have himself a game tonight.
JT Brubaker ($7.4k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – We’ve seen the Cardinals struggle at times against righties this season. While their K rate is about at average at 24%, their power numbers against righties tells us that the damage they’ll do will be limited. Brubaker himself has been pretty decent this year. He has a very respectable 3.34 xFIP and K rate of 25.5%. I don’t think you’ll need to go here tonight, but if you want to load up on bats you could do a lot worse than the spot that Brubaker is in.
MLB DFS: The Bats
New York Yankees vs. Mike Foltynewicz – I like to pick and choose my spots when using the Yankees. Tonight is a night the Yankees should find success. They’re facing off against a pitcher that has trouble keeping the ball in the park this season.
Folty only has 2 starts this season in which he didn’t give up a homer. He’s giving up a ton of hard contact at nearly 40% and has a low swinging strike % of only 7.9%. So we have ourselves a pitcher that doesn’t miss many bats and gives up a lot of hard contact to boot. Let’s attack him.
His main pitch is his 4-seamer which he throws more than 37% of the time. If the Yankees use a similar lineup to last night, I really like the chances of DJ LeMahieu ($3.3k), Luke Voit ($2.8k), Aaron Judge ($4.5k), and Gio Urshela ($2.7k) having solid nights. All profile great against this pitch and outside of Judge, it’s a very affordable stack.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Matt Harvey – The Harvey show came back down to earth last week against the Mets. While Harvey has been better this season, he hasn’t been great. Outside of his last game against the Mets, he’s really been able to avoid giving up big innings. In looking at his advanced metrics he’s been skirting the line of getting tagged. He has a really low swinging strike rate and giving up a decent amount of medium to hard contact.
Rays have put up solid numbers vs. righties this year. They have a .706 OPS and 105 wRC+. My stack tonight is going focus on the very top of the lineup. Randy Arozarena ($3.1k), Austin Meadows ($3.6k), Ji-Man Choi ($3.2k), and Brandon Lowe ($3.4k). With Choi being back in the mix, this lefty dominant lineup should succeed against a pitcher that’s given up a .219 ISO to lefty batters since 2019.
Chicago Cubs vs. Patrick Corbin – While attacking Corbin with Phillies last week didn’t work out for us, I don’t think lighting will strike twice. Corbin has definitely showed flashes of upside at times this year, but he’s also shown that he’s a pitcher than can be attacked. He has a fairly high hard hit rate of 34.8% this season and has given up 10 long balls.
The Cubs have a bunch of guys in the lineup that do really well against southpaws. Although they are K’ing a pretty high rate to lefties this year, the Cubs are also showing off the power with a .192 ISO and a .760 OPS. Cubs should be able to put up a big number tonight.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
This is going to be a fun slate. We have 2 clear cut top pitchers tonight in solid match-ups but we also have some offenses that have the potential to put up big numbers. Weather may be a concern in some spots but nothing that looks like it could cause games to get PPD as of yet.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!
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