Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Thanks to yesterday’s rainout we have a 3 game slate of MLB playoff baseball today.
My goal today will be to walk you through where my mind is with pitching and then focus on some bats that are a must.
Let’s dig in to today’s slate!
MLB DFS: Pitching
Pitching today is very different than yesterday. Yesterday we had the likes of Max Scherzer and Freddy Peralta while today has the likes of Tony Gonsolin and Eric Lauer. They are solid pitchers, but nothing like their counterparts from yesterday.
My top pitcher today is Lance McCullers. McCullers tends to strike out batters from the right side at a little bit of a higher clip. In 2021 he struck out righties at a 28.4% clip vs. 26.2% for lefties. McCullers also throws his slider heavily to righties, more than 44% of the time.
The core to the White Sox lineup is right handed and all have high whiff rates to the pitch. if he can neutralize guys like Anderson, Robert, and Abreu to start things off it could put the Astros in a position to clinch the Division Series today and the Astros vs. Red Sox in the ALCS.
Another pitcher I’m interested in is Anthony DeSclafani. DeSclafani is well rested as he hasn’t pitched since 10/01. We shouldn’t expect a high strike out total from DeSclafani today, but we should expect a solid outing. DeSclafani has scored at least 24 DK points in 3 of his last 4 outings vs. the Dodgers. He faced them most recently on 9/3 and struck out 5 in 6 innings while only allowing 2 hits.
DeSclafani should face a lineup that has 6 righties in it today, including the pitcher. On the year he held righties to just a .109 ISO and 33% hard hit rate. This is a solid match up for him today and while I like McCullers a bit better, DeSclafani should be able to hold his own today.
A case could also be made to throw out Huascar Ynoa. The Brewers bats have gone completely cold. They have been shutout in back to back games and have only mustered 11 hits in those 2 games. They’re in desperation mode and face off against a pitcher that was pretty solid this year.
Ynoa relies heavily on his slider. He threw it more than 45% of the time to both sides of the plate. If we look at the projected lineup for the Brewers today, only Urias and Tellez had whiff rates lower than 30% to sliders. I’m ok going into a match up having those guys as the guys that may have a decent shot at production. If Ynoa’s slider is on point today the Braves will be moving on to the NLCS.
Charlie Morton has been named today’s starter on short rest. Even though he may be on an abbreviated pitch count he’s very much in play. He dominated them through 6 innings on Friday and only gave up a 2 run homer to Tellez.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Atlanta Braves vs. Eric Lauer – Lauer has some pretty clear splits and those splits will not be to his advantage today. He gives up way more hard contact and fly balls to righties. Righties had a 46.5% hard hit rate vs. him this year and a 42% fly ball rate. Eight of the nine Braves today will be batting from the right side of the plate. And the lone lefty is Freddy Freeman who is typically pretty good against southpaws.
My core today from the Braves will be Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson. Both guys line up extremely well with Lauer and his cutter. Riley has a .294 ISO against cutters while Swanson has a .333 ISO against them. Both of these guys helped the Braves get to this point and they’ll help them advance to the NLCS today. Other guys I’m interested in here are Ozzie Albies and Jorge Soler.
Houston Astros vs. Carlos Rodon – Rodon is a great pitcher. No one on the slate has the strike out upside that he has as he’s the only pitcher throwing today that had a 30% K rate or greater in 2021. That said, the Astros are in control of the series and should be able to send the White Sox packing today. If we want to get a take down today we really need to differentiate our lineup.
The field should gravitate to guys like Altuve, Correa, and Bregman and if you want to play the chalk that’s where you’d want to be. If playing the Astros today I’d want to make sure I have the likes of Meyers and Maldonado in my lineups. Although it was a smaller sample size, Meyers had a .294 ISO vs. lefties this year.
San Francisco Giants vs. Tony Gonsolin – If you look at just ISO and wOBA Gonsolin looks like he does better vs. lefties than he does righties. I think it was mostly luck and I’m going to hammer him with lefties today. If we look at some of his metrics he should be getting tagged by lefties. His fly ball rate is higher, his hard rate is higher, his K rate is lower, and his exit velocity is higher. All signs point to lefties getting the better of him.
The heart and soul of the Giants is Brandon Crawford. If using the Giants today, he’s a must for me. He had a .230 ISO vs. righties this year and a near .400 wOBA. I’d also make sure to prioritize guys like Wade, Yastrzemski, and Bryant. All three had ISO’s over .200 against righties this year. Gonsolin Is very beatable and the Giants should clinch their spot in the NLCS vs. him today.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
Oh what a fun day today is going to be for the baseball fan. All 3 games could be the last for teams. As I look at this slate and the arms vs. the bats, we should see the teams up 2-1 in their series clinch their spots in their respective league championships.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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