Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Brandon Woodruff ($10.6k) vs. San Francisco Giants – The Giants bats have been scuffling a bit of late and I’ll look to take advantage of that with an ace in Woodruff. Over the past 30 days Woodruff has been pretty dominant.
He has a 29% K rate and a 3.25 xFIP. Batters have just a 22% hard hit rate against him over that stretch as well. This is a match up that lines up really well for him too.
The Giants should have 5 lefties in the lineup. During the month of August Woodruff has a 36% K rate against lefties. Really like Woodruff’s chances of having a solid night tonight.
Blake Snell ($9.4k) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Dominant Snell is back in the picture. After a pretty slow start to the year we’re back to seeing the Ace Snell. Over the last 30 days he has a pretty insane 37% K rate.
He’s faced the Diamondbacks twice over that stretchand has struck out 6 and 13. There’s a little bit of a concern as he did throw a season high 122 pitches in his last outing so it’s possible that the Padres give him a bit of a shorter leash. That said, the Padres blew their bullpen last night. Look for the Snell to continue his dominant stretch.
Tarik Skubal ($9k) vs. Oakland Athletics – Skubal is essentially on part 4 of his season. The first part was awful, the second part was dominant, and the third part was just ok. He’s back into that dominant part with a 30% K rate over the past month.
He has 4 straight starts of at least 33 FD points. Those 4 outings were against teams that have been doing really well against lefties. One of his biggest out pitches is his slider. If it’s on tonight he has a really good chance of shutting down an A’s lineup that isn’t great against sliders. Multiple hitters in this lineup have whiff rates greater than 30%.
With Buehler’s price being over $11k tonight I have a really hard time using him against a solid Braves lineup. Braves have been great against righties. While Buehler should do a nice job of shutting them down, there’s a better chance of him having a non ceiling game than an actual ceiling game.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Keegan Akin – I’ll start this by saying that the Blue Jays have been pretty disappointing of late. Over the past week they’ve scored greater than 3 runs only twice. The good thing for us is that one was last night and they’ll be facing a brutal Orioles rotation and bullpen today and tomorrow.
On the docket for the Blue Jays tonight is Akin. Over the last month he’s allowing a 52% fly ball rate and a 30% hard hit rate. Akin gives up pretty similar numbers to both sides of the plate so my focus is going to be on the guys that have been hitting lefties well.
Semien ($4k) has a .273 ISO against lefties over the past 30 days and Hernandez ($3.7k) has a .318. In a much smaller sample size due to injuries Springer ($3.8k) has an .818. These 3 are my core tonight on FD.
Kirk ($2.1k) is going to give us the cheap exposure to this lineup and he’s been pretty good against lefties. On the year he has a .398 wOBA against lefties. Blue Jays stand a chance to put up a big number tonight.
Chicago White Sox vs. Bryce Wilson – Wilson is a low strike out arm that gives up a ton of contact, while also giving up a healthy amount of fly balls. This is the type of pitcher that we attack in DFS.
Wilson’s biggest weakness is lefties. Over the past month they have a 47% fly ball rate while he’s only been able to strike out 13% of them. The guy here I’m going to prioritize is Yasmani Grandal ($3.2k). Since coming off a lengthy stay on the IL he’s been on a tear. He has 3 homers in 3 games and 6 hits in just 12 AB.
Yoan Moncada ($3.5k) is also another guy I’ll want to prioritize here. He gets the platoon advantage and has also been hitting well. Outside of the two guys that are hitting from the left side of the plate I’ll also look to fit in Abreu ($3.9k) and Robert ($4k).
Both guys are also super hot with OPS’s greater than 1.300 over the past weak and multiple barrels. Only the Cubs have surrendered more batters to perfect lineups over the last month than the Pirates. Look for that number to increase tonight as the White Sox put up a big number.
Colorado Rockies vs. Jordan Lyles – I don’t often use Rockies outside of Coors because they are typically a much different team away vs. home. That said, tonight they get to take on a pitcher in Lyles who is the epitome of a gas can.
They will also provide something we need, value. Lyles over the last month has been getting hammered by lefties. They have a .375 ISO against him. He’s given up a 51% fly ball rate and a 61% hard hit rate to them. We attack Lyles with lefties.
My focus here will be the bottom of the Rockies lineup. Nunez ($2.1k) and Hillard ($2.4k) have both been crushing righties with ISO’s over .300 in August. Both McMahaon ($3.2k) and Tapia ($2.5k) have wOBA’s over .350 against them in August.
Rockies lefties are going to provide us the value we need to get a top pitcher and either bats from either the Blue Jays or White Sox.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
We have a slate loaded with pitching tonight. It honestly feels like forever since we’ve had this many arms to choose from. From a bats perspective my core will come from either the Blue Jays or White Sox as they both have great match ups. I’ll look to Colorado to get some value as they get to take on Lyles tonight.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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