Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Tonight we have a massive 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Corbin Burnes ($11.5k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – No pitcher on tonight’s slate has the type of upside that Burnes has. Over the past month he has 2 starts of 70 FD points or greater with one of those being against this Reds team. While I don’t expect another 70 point performance today, I do expect him to have another one of his solid outings.
His metrics over the past 30 days have been great. He has just a 2.94 xFIP, a 29% K rate, a 36.2% CSW, and just a 21.5% hard hit rate. He’s been getting it done. If we look out even farther Burnes has given up more than 1 ER just once over the past two months. He is the top pitcher tonight and I don’t think it’s close.
German Marquez ($9k) vs. Chicago Cubs – I’m willing to use below average pitchers vs. the Cubs at this point. Marquez is far from a below average pitcher.
Senzatela dominated the Cubs last night with 6 strike outs in 6 innings. Marquez > Senzatela. The projected lineup that Marquez is going to face tonight is just not good. They have a 29% K rate vs. righties over the pats month and if we look at the power numbers, they aren’t their either. Their ISO over the same period is just .125 against righties.
With Marquez pitching there’s no reason to overthink this one. Look for Marquez to dominate a lineup that will be a punching bag for the rest of the year.
Tanner Houck ($6.7k) vs. Minnesota Twins – Houck has 4 straight starts of at least 6 K’s. During that stretch he faced the Yankees, the Blue Jays twice, and the Rays once. So pretty solid lineups. Tonight he gets to take on a lesser opponent in the Twins.
The Twins over the past week have struck out more than 26% of the time and haven’t been doing much in terms of power. Houck’s salary has not yet caught up to his production and it’s something I’ll want to take advantage of.
In his last 16 innings of work he has a 33% K rate and a 14.9% swinging strike rate. Those are pretty good numbers for a mid $8k range pitcher, let alone a pitcher a under $7k.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Los Angeles Angels vs. Spencer Watkins – The Orioles turn to Spencer Watkins to stop the bleeding. They’ve lost 18 in a row and with Watkins on the mound there’s a solid chance they get to 19 tonight. Over the past month Watkins has just been dreadful.
He owns a 5.72 xFIP over that period and a 52% hard hit rate. Over his last 6 straight he hasn’t had a single start where he hasn’t given up less than 4 earned runs. He’s a low strike out pitcher that gives up a ton of contact. Let’s attack him!
On the season he’s actually been worse against righties as they’ve tagged him for a .228 ISO and .380 wOBA. That said, lefties have started to get to him over the last 30 days. It’s all going to start with Ohtani ($4.5k) tonight.
He’s by far their best hitter and there’s a very real chance that he leads off the game with a homer against the warehouse tonight. Watkins is mostly a fastball pitcher. He’s been throwing it more than 45% of the time to both sides of the plate.
My hope is that Stassi ($2.8k) plays tonight because he’s been crushing fastballs this year. He owns a .507 slugging % and a 52% hard hit rate against them this year. Another guy I’ll look to grab is Brandon Marsh ($2.5k) as he’s been swinging a hot bat.
Over the past week he has a .966 OPS and a 160 wRC+. Those 3 are my top targets here but this entire lineup is in play against a bad pitcher and a bad bullpen.
Boston Red Sox vs. Griffin Jax – If we look Jax’s last 30 days there’s a huge gap between his ERA and xFIP/SIERA at close to 3 runs. Anytime I see that type of difference there are few things I look at.
First thing is their LOB %. Jax’s is at 91.7%. Next I’ll look at their contact rate, 82% for Jax. Then I’ll look at his hard hit rate, 41%. So we have a pitcher giving up a ton of hard contact that’s leaving a large amount of runners on base.
At some point, Jax’s luck is going to run out and regression is going to hit him. Tonight should be the night against a potent Red Sox lineup. The two guys in this lineup that really have my intrigue are Devers ($4k) and Schwarber ($3.7k).
Both guys have slaughtered right handed pitching this year with ISO’s around .330 mark. They should both see a ton of fastballs tonight as Jax throws it more than 44% of the time to lefties.
Schwarber has a .673 slugging % against fastballs on the year and Devers isn’t too far behind at .500. They will be my foundation to the Red Sox stack. All other Red Sox will be in play as they should put up a huge number.
Atlanta Braves vs. Andrew Heaney – Heaney is a favorite of mine to pick on because he gives up such a large number of fly balls. Over the past 30 days his fly ball rate is at 55%.
Anytime you give up that many fly balls you’re bound to give up some homers. And that’s just what Heaney has done. In his last 28 innings of work he’s given up 10 homers.
Heaney has been pretty horrendous to both sides of the plate as a member of the Yankees so the entire lineup is in play. The priority here will be Soler ($3.5k) as he has just crushed lefties over the last month. His ISO is at .605. He’s a boom or bust pick though due to his 27.5% K rate. If he connects on a pitch from Heaney tonight, there’s a very real chance it leaves the park.
Other guys I’ll look to get into this stack are Riley ($4.1k) and Swanson ($3.8k). They’ll see an onslaught of fastballs tonight and they each have slugging %’s over .600 on the year against them.
Freeman ($4.2k) is a possible way to differentiate your stack as he almost always goes under owned against lefties. He shouldn’t be as he has a .352 wOBA against them this year.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
We have a decent amount of pitching options tonight and I’ve provided my favorite in the high, medium, and low price ranges. The game in Baltimore has the potentially to be a high scoring affair.
While my favorite side is the Angels side, don’t’ sleep on the O’s as they’re somewhat hungry and they are facing their former teammate in Bundy.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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