Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 13 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. We have a great slate lined up with solid options for pitching and stacking.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Max Scherzer ($10.6K) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – There isn’t much to say today to sell you on using Scherzer. He proved me very wrong last time and showed that he is match up proof. Scherzer dominated a very solid lineup in the Houston Astros.
Today he faces off against a streaking Phillies team. Hopefully the day off yesterday cools them down a bit. On the year Mad Max has been great. He has an elite 33% K rate and a 3.60 xFIP.
Phillies are a familiar foe as he’s faced them a couple of times already during his Nationals days. In those 2 outings he combined for 17 K’s. Look for another solid performance out of him today.
Alex Wood ($8.6k) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Wood has had a couple of rough outings in a row. One vs. a very solid Astros lineup and one vs. these same Diamondbacks in Arizona. The game against the Diamondbacks he had a string of bad luck in the game.
He had an insanely high .500 BABIP and just a 64% LOB %. The hard hit rate against him was just 35.7%. A few of those hits don’t squeak through and we’re talking about a very different game.
Dbacks haven’t been exactly crushing the ball of late. Over the past week they have a 31% K rate with just 5 barrels. I really like Wood’s chances of having a bounce back game today as he heads back home to San Francisco.
Daniel Lynch ($6k) vs. New York Yankees – If you want to get a little crazy tonight, look no farther than Daniel Lynch. Lynch is one of the Royals top pitching prospects on his second tour of duty. The first tour did not go well as he looked over matched in his first 3 starts.
His last 3 starts have been a completely different story. Two of his last 3 starts have been outstanding. One was against a streaking Tigers team and the last was against a tough White Sox lineup. Even the middle start against Toronto he was able to limit damage and ended up with a QS.
The Yankees have a tough lineup, but they also have a bunch of free swingers that have high K rates. This is a very high risk, but equally high reward type of pick for tonight. With a lot of the top pitchers in questionable match ups tonight, you could do a lot worse than Lynch.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Chicago White Sox vs. Griffin Jax – For my primary stack tonight I’m going right back to the well. The White Sox are healthy for the first time in months and they’re going to be a lineup that will do some damage night in and night out. Up and down the lineup they have power and tonight they are facing a pitcher that has been skating by with some luck.
Over the last 30 days he has an ERA of 1.88 but an xFIP and SIERA in the mid 5’s. Any time I see a gap that big I automatically start to look why it’s there. Three things that stick out are his low K rate of 15%, his LOB of 97%, and his near 53% fly ball rate. I’m looking for some regression with him tonight.
About a month ago Jax faced the White Sox and had a decent outing. Not in the lineup were Cesar Hernandez ($3.2k), Eloy Jimenez ($3.4k), and Luis Robert ($2.7k). The lineup he’s going to face tonight is significantly better.
White Sox will see a lot of fastballs tonight as Jax throws it more than 50% of the time. The guys on the team that have the best numbers vs. fastballs are Abreu ($3.7k), Goodwin ($2.5k), and JIminez. I’ll be building my stack around those 3. No hitter is hotter than Jimenez right now and you should prioritize fitting him in.
Seattle Mariners vs. Kolby Allard – The Mariners tonight will be my top secondary stack. They’re getting a match up vs. a pitcher in Allard who has been giving up an astronomical amount of hard contact. In his last 24 innings of work he’s given up 14 barrels.
He’s what we like to say as “wild in the zone”. Hitters have a near 94% contact rate on his pitches in the zone. Batters see his pitches well and until he figures out how to deceive batters, he’s going to continue to get drilled. His power numbers against have actually been worse to lefties this year as his ISO jumps to .236 vs. “just” .178 vs. righties.
My top player in this stack is going to be Kyle Seager ($3.6k). Seager has a .271 ISO and .328 wOBA against lefties this year. Other than his fastball, Allard throws a cutter more than 26% of the time. Ty France ($3.1k) has a .731 slugging % and a .463 wOBA against cutters this year and will also be another piece I want from the Mariners.
New York Mets vs. Paolo Espino – Mets are back home after an extremely embarrassing road trip. This is their final “easy” match up until they face the Giants and Dodgers so I fully expect them to come out hungry. The good thing for them is they are facing a pitcher that attackable in Espino.
Over his last 22 innings he’s given up 5 homers and 9 barrels. Epsino’s biggest struggles have come against righties with a .265 ISO and .338 wOBA. My core here will be built around Pete Alonso ($3.8k) and JD Davis ($2.9k). Davis has a .214 ISO and .414 wOBA against righties this year.
Another guy I’ll look to here is Conforto ($2.6k). He’s starting to show some signs of life in what’s been a poor campaign. He has a 50% fly ball rate and 50% hard hit rate over the past week.
Other offenses I like today the Tigers vs. Keegan Akin and the Pirates vs. J.A. Happ.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
Pitching wise Scherzer is my priority tonight. The rest of the expensive guys all have some risks tonight so if I don’t go with Scherzer I’ll drop down to either Alex Wood or drop all the way down to Lynch. White Sox are my priority and I’ll make sure I have at least 3 of them in my lineup.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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