Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a big 13 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
Pitching looks to be much better than last night. While we still don’t have the high powered arms that command high salaries, we still have a few solid pitchers that can get the job done while striking out some batters.
Let’s dig in to today’s slate!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Aaron Nola ($9.1k) vs. New York Yankees – Really like this spot for Nola tonight. There’s a little bit of a concern with there being some rust as he hasn’t pitched in a couple of weeks. He should be healthy though as he was only on the COVID IL due to contract tracing.
The Yankees will still be without their key bat in Judge. The lineup that he’s projected to face tonight has a 28% K rate on the year against righties. With Nola’s season long K rate standing at 30% we know there’s going to be potential for a healthy amount of K’s tonight.
Nola has touched double digit strike outs in 2 of his last 3 outings. I like his chances of doing it again tonight and pulling out the W.
German Marquez ($8.6k) vs. Seattle Mariners – We are getting an ace level pitcher at a reduced price due to Coors. In Marquez we’re also getting a pitcher that has done exceptionally well at Coors. Marquez has been nothing short of brilliant this year. His xFIP is sitting at 3.76 to go with a 26% K rate.
Over the past month Marquez has been able to improve on his K rate which is sitting at 31% during that stretch. He’s facing off against a team today that has K’d at a 26% clip against righties this year. While Kelenic is back up in the majors he’s not at the point yet where’s going to make this a formidable offense. Look for Marquez to continue his solid stretch of pitching tonight.
Tarik Skubal ($8.2k) vs. Texas Rangers – The free swinging Rangers are back! Since returning from the All Star break they have a near 28% K rate. Mize plus the Tigers bullpen were able to strike out 10 Rangers last night. Skubal is never a safe play as he still gives up more fly balls and hard hits than desired, but he’s also shown at times elite K upside.
In Skubal we’re getting someone in the low 8K range that has multiple games this year with 8 or more strike outs. With Rangers striking out more of late I really want to look to take advantage of it. This is a good spot tonight for Skubal.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Colorado Rockies vs. Marco Gonzales – I often try to not write up teams playing in Coors because they tend to be chalk and well, it’s Coors. It’s an obvious hitting environment. With Gonzales on the hill though I really want to make sure I highlight the spot that the Rockies are in tonight.
Gonzales has been very bad this year. He’s given up a 46% hard hit rate with a 43% fly ball rate. If we add in the fact that he has a K rate of only 19% we know he’s just giving up way too many hard hits and way too many fly balls. Every single one of his pitches has a negative fangraphs’ rating. That’s bad.
He’s been especially bad to righties this year, giving up a .377 ISO with a 49% hard hit rate. The obvious play here is Story ($3.8k) but both Hampson ($2.9k) and Rodgers ($2.9k) have been crushing lefties this year with ISO’s greater than .244 and wOBA’s over .400. CJ Cron ($3.7k) is also someone that should feast on the sinkers coming from Gonzales.
Chicago White Sox vs. Baily Ober – Ober has already faced the White Sox three times this season. Two of the outings were bad and his last outing was really good. My bet is that he returns to form and has a third bat outing against the White Sox.
Ober just hasn’t quite shown yet he can consistently get Major League hitters out. Over his last 16 innings of work he’s given up 6 homers. No pitcher on today’s slate is giving up homers at a quicker pace than Ober over the last month. He has been better against righties this year so I’ll want to make sure I grab the lefties in this lineup. I’ll be starting with Goodwin ($2.9k) who has a .333 ISO against righties this year and Sheets ($2.5k) who has a .444 ISO.
While his K rate jumps to 33% against righties, he’s also giving up a 46% fly ball rate and 44% hard hit rate so we don’t really need to shy away from that side of the plate in this match-up. I’ll be making sure to get Abreu ($3.6k) and Anderson ($3.6k) into this stack. Since the All Star break Anderson is one of the hottest hitters in the game with 3 barrels and a 1.529 OPS.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Robert Stock – I’m going right back to the well with Reds tonight. Mets are going with Stock as their spot starter tonight and it very well could turn into a bullpen game for the Mets as Stock has only made it through 4 innings in both starts this year.
The Mets bullpen over the past 30 days has been dreadful with a 5.53 xFIP and they are as taxed as you can be. I’m going to focus on the same guys as last night. Winker ($3.2k), Votto ($2.8k), and Naquin ($2.2k) should do well again. I love this lineup even more if Castellanos ($3.6k) is back.
From a pure game stack the Tor/Bos will have fireworks again tonight. Right now the weather in the game looks awful as starting in the afternoon there’s essentially a 70% chance of storms throughout the night. If the weather clears up both teams would become a priority as Richards is trash and the Blue Jays are going with essentially a bullpen game.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
Tonight’s looking like another fun night w/ some potentially for high run totals. Thankfully we have some betting pitching to use.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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