Marco Morales 
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a really big 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
This slate is looking to be a really fun slate with solid bats facing gas cans and Jacob Degrom on the hill. There are several different directions we can go and I’ll walk you through the 3 pitchers I like tonight and the 3 stacks I love the most.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
If you aren’t starting your day with Adam’s Starting Rotation article, you’re doing it wrong. It’s hands down the best the article in the business in breaking down the day’s pitchers.
Jacob Degrom ($11.8k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers – There really isn’t much I need to tell you about Degrom to try to sell you on starting him. He is, not arguably, the best pitcher in the game. With all the talk about sticky substances and pitchers like Cole regressing, Degrom just continues to go out and mow batters down.
Over the last month his K rate is sitting at 43.5%. Just think about that for a second. He’s striking out more than 40% of the batters he’s facing. The only reason to fade him today is that you hope another pitcher has a Degrom like day.
Aaron Nola ($10k) vs. Chicago Cubs – I’m looking for a ceiling game out of Nola today. Cubs are a team that can strike out at a pretty quick pace. On the year, against righties, they have a near 27% K rate. In looking into Nola’s pitch mix, he should have a solid night.
Nola’s biggest put-away pitch is his curveball. Outside of Rizzo and Pederson, this is a pitch that the Cubs have really struggled with this year. Even though the wind may be blowing out tonight in Wrigley, I really like Nola’s chances of having a high strike out game tonight. Can’t hit the ball over the fence if you’re swinging and missing.
Jon Gray ($8.3k) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Gray’s been excellent in his last two outings, racking up 15 K’s while only allowing 2 ER. Gray is in my pool tonight because he gets a great match-up against a bad Diamondbacks team. Against righties this year they just haven’t been able to do much. They have a 24.5% K rate, a .131 ISO, and just an 81 wRC+. If you want to grab some of the higher priced stacks tonight, Gray should be your guy on FD. He’s on a roll and he’s facing a bad team.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Jake Arrieta – The Phillies put up a big number vs. the Cubs last night. This almost feels like a little bit of chasing, but it’s 100% not. Jake Arrieta is on the hill tonight and any chance I can get I target him with bats. Arrieta on the year has been really bad. His xFIP nearly halfway through the year is sitting at 5.45.
Throughout his career he’s always been known as a ground ball pitcher due to his heavy reliance on the sinker. His ground ball rate is at the lowest point of his career. What does that mean? He’s giving up a whole lot of fly balls and line drives. Fly balls equals home runs. His HR/FB rate is also at the highest level of his career.
My stacks here will start with Hoskins ($3.2k), Realmuto ($3k), and Harper ($3.8k). Those are the 3 that have had the most success against sinkers. Especially Harper whose ISO against the pitch is .346. Look for the Phillies to put up another big number today.
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers – It could be argued that Jose Urena has been the worst pitcher in baseball over the past month. Like Arrieta, Urena has been a ground ball pitcher over the course of his career. Something has happened to Urena over the past month. Over the past 30 days his fly ball rate and ground ball rate are almost identical. Both sitting near 40%.
In his last 18 innings of work he’s given up 8 homers. Not only is he giving up a lot of homers, he’s also putting a ton of batters on. His WHIP over the same period is 2.33. You just can’t succeed at the major league level giving up that many homers and allowing that many runners on.
I’m focused on 4 guys here, but the entire team will be in consideration. Lowe ($2.6k), Garcia ($3.2k), Gallo ($4.2k), and Dahl ($2.4k) all have had success against sinkers. They each have ISO’s over .200 and low whiff rates. Gallo is primed for one of his multiple homer games.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Kris Bubic – Bubic is another pitcher that has been struggling. Over the last month he’s been getting hit extremely hard. His hard hit rate is nearly 46% with a swinging strike rate of just 7%. He’s thrown 18 innings over that time frame. In those innings he’s given 10 homers and 10 barrels. If batters square him up, it leaves the park.
With the weather forecasted to be extremely hot in KC later, the ball should be flying. Lots of hard contact and lots of homers for the Reds. While the Reds as a whole have struggled vs. lefties this year, they do have some bats that have shown power against them in their careers.
My building blocks here are Castellanos ($4k) and Suarez ($2.9k) as they’ve have had the most success against southpaws. India ($3.3k) was a late scratch last night, but if he’s back in the lineup today I like him a lot. Stephenson ($2.5k) and Aquino ($2.2k) are also guys that need to be considered if going with Cincy.
I also like the Toronto Blue Jays a ton tonight. I just like the other stacks I mentioned a bit better and fit better with the pitchers I mentioned.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
We have the best pitcher in the business going tonight and that always makes for a fun evening. Look for balls to be flying out of the park in Wrigley, Kaufman, and Globe Life Park.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!
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