Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 8 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
Pitching options are pretty limited tonight. However, we have a couple of pitchers with good match-ups that we can exploit. We also have 2 high powered offenses in great match-ups.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Walker Buehler ($11k) vs. Chicago Cubs – Buehler gets tonight what I think is a phenomenal match-up. Cubs have really been struggling to put the bat on the ball over the past couple of weeks. In the last 2 weeks the Cubbies have a near 30% K rate. The worst in baseball. Statistically speaking, they’ve been one of the worst offenses in the game over the last few weeks.
Yes, they have some bats in the lineup that can hit some homers but they are really struggling to get anyone on with just a .248 OBP. So even if they put the ball over the fence it’s going to be a solo shot. Any chance I can get, I’m going to attack this offense until they show signs of life. While Buehler’s K rate is down this year, I do feel like there’s upside tonight with the struggling Cubs.
Luis Garcia ($9.6k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Garcia has been a pretty dominant pitcher over the last month. Over the past 30 days he has a 3.48 xFIP and a 27% K rate. In his last 5 outings he’s reached 46 points or greater. He’s really been on a roll.
Today he gets to face off against a team that has struggled as a whole against righties this season. They have a 26% K rate and an ISO of just .158. If we look at their projected lineup today, we can see they have a 29% K rate against righties this year. This a great spot for Garcia today.
Joe Ross ($7.4k) vs. Miami Marlins – I said pitching options were limited today, I wasn’t kidding. I don’t really love this pick, but on a night where options are limited I want to attack weak offenses. And if we look at what Ross has done recently, he really hasn’t been that bad and his salary gives us the ability to grab the top stacks.
In the last 30 days Ross is pitching to a sub 4 xfip and has been striking out more batters with a near 26% K rate. Marlins haven’t done much damage to righties this year with an OPS of .672 and an ISO of just .135. This is far from a safe pick, but I like the match-up here.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Houston Astros vs. Jose Urena – This is going to be a chalky stack. There’s no denying that the Astros are lapping the field in terms of offense. If we look at what they’ve done over the past 2 weeks we can see they are far ahead of everyone else. They have a wRC+ of 159. The next closest team is the Giants at 129. They’re rolling.
You can make a case to fade them tonight and hope they struggle, but due to the match-up it won’t be a very strong case. They get to face off against Urena who has struggled mightily over the past 30 days. His xFIP during that period is 7.19.
He is a groundball pitching who is giving up way more fly balls than he normally does. On the year he has a 26% FB rate – over the past 30 days it’s at 42%. Everyone in this lineup is playable tonight. The hottest 4 in the lineup right now are Carlos Correa ($4.2k), Brantley ($3.7k), Toro ($2.1k), and Alvarez ($3.8k). All have wRC+’s over 200 in the past week.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Dean Kremer – With the Astros being the major expected chalk tonight, it may make the Blue Jays a little less owned than they should be. They’re getting a great match-up tonight against another pitcher that’s struggling.
Kremer over the past 30 days is giving up an almost 39% hard hit rate and has given up 5 barrels in just 15 innings of work. He’s also giving up a ton of fly balls with a FB rate of 54%. Kremer throws his 93 mph fastball more than 50% of the time to both sides of the plate. Looking at how the Blue Jays handle that pitch, it’s going to be a long night for Kremer.
Guerrero ($4.3k) and Hernandez ($3k) both have ISO’s greater than .340 to this pitch and hard hit rates over 55%. With Springer ($3.6k) healthy this lineup is back to full strength and ready to do some damage. Tonight they will do some damage
Washington Nationals vs. Cody Poteet – 53% fly ball rate, 43% hard hit rate, and 8 barrels over the past month. That’s Poteet in a nutshell. If you are using the Nationals today, your stack needs to start with Schwarber ($4k) who is red hot. He has 6 homers over the past week and a .591 wOBA.
The Nationals made the right bet by putting him in the leadoff spot. Since his move he’s done nothing but rake. Poteet’s splits are pretty neutral so there’s no need to worry about focusing on the left side of the plate.
Outside of Schwarber, both Turner ($4.3k) and Castro ($2.3k) are swinging hot bats with OPS’s greater than 1.000 and wOBA’s greater than .450 over the past week.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
Tonight on FD the recipe seems pretty clear to me. Take some Buehler or Garcia and then grab bats from either the Blue Jays or Astros.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!
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