Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 8 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
We are back to a somewhat underwhelming pitching slate. The top pitcher on tonight’s slate is a bit overpriced for my liking but I do think we have some other pitchers we can use to exploit some weaker offenses. The goal today will be to bring you 3 pitchers and 3 offenses that will help you get to the top of the leader boards.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
While Ohtani is very playable on DK tonight, on FD he’s just way too expensive. I love the match-up, but $11k for someone that almost never goes past 6 innings is just too steep for me.
Marcus Stroman ($9.9k) vs. Chicago Cubs – I should start with saying that $9.9k for Stroman is about $1k more than I’d like to spend on him. That said, the match-up is very good and he’s been flashing some more K upside recently.
Between Walker and Degrom the Cubs struck out 20 times over the last 2 days to Mets starters. We know we have a team here that has a strong tendency to whiff. On the year they’re striking out nearly 26% of the time to righties. That pretty much aligns with Stroman’s K rate over the past 30 days, 26%. This is a great spot for Stroman to continue a great run he’s had over the past couple of weeks.
Brandon Woodruff ($10.8k) vs. Colorado Rockies – I don’t often recommend a pitcher in Coors but with limited options on the mound tonight, we have to bring Woodruff into the convo. This is the cheapest that Woodruff has been since around this time last month. With his elite K rate of more than 31% on the year we’re getting a top pitcher who will most likely go a bit under owned due to the environment.
What has me feeling a little more comfortable with this pick tonight is the fact that Woodruff has really been limiting hard contact over the past 30 days. He’s actually been giving up more soft contact than hard. If we add in that plus his strike out ability, he should be able to neutralize the Coors effect. Not a safe pick by any means due to the environment, but we’re limited tonight.
Joe Musgrove ($8.5k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – The Reds away from GAB are a very different team. All of their power metrics take a nosedive. Their OPS drops from .829 to .684, which is mostly driven by a drop in their slugging % from .480 to .379.
Peralta showed yesterday that the Reds can strike out when up against a strong right handed pitcher. While I wouldn’t put Musgrove in the same category as Peralta in terms of K’s, he has shown over course of the year that he can strike out batters with the best of them. He’s had 4 games of 10 or more strikeouts this year. Over the past 30 day he has 35% K rate. The K’s are there for him tonight. At only $8.5k there’s a chance for a really strong return on our investment.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Michael King – This is going to be a tough night for King. He’s facing a team that has just absolutely destroyed right handed pitching this season. Blue Jays have a .193 ISO vs. righties and an OPS of .785.
In looking at pitch data, the match-up just gets worse for him as the Blue Jays hit the sinker hard. Biggio ($3.4k), Guerrero ($4.4k), Bichette ($4.2k), Gurriel ($2.5k), and Semien ($3.8k) all have slugging %’s greater than .500 against the pitch this year.
We’ve seen the Blue Jays put up big numbers this year, tonight is a chance for them to do it again. With pitching being on the cheaper side, this expensive stack doesn’t scare me too much. Especially if you add in Gurriel.
Atlanta Braves vs. John Gant – Braves vs. lefties this year, not so much. Braves vs. righties, let’s roll! Of the teams playing tonight, only the Blue Jays have a higher ISO against the handedness of the pitcher they’re going against. Braves have an ISO of .187 against righties this year and an OPS Of .739. These are two key metrics I like to look at when looking for stacks as they show power and the ability to get on base.
With Gant’s lean towards throwing sinkers, I’m going to focus on the guys here that have done extremely well against the sinker this year. Acuna ($4.5k), Riley ($3.1k), and Swanson ($2.7k) all have slugging %’s of .480 or higher. Both Acuna and Swanson have hard hit rates over 50% to this pitch. Braves are in a great spot tonight to put up a healthy amount of runs.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Justin Dunn – Dunn gets the daunting task on taking on the Rays tonight. It’s been an up and down campaign for Dunn this year. He’s shown the flashes at times that made him a top pick of the Mets a few years ago. But he’s also had a ton of down spots and that’s why we’re attacking him today.
He’s giving up a ton of hard contact to lefties this year. Lefties have a 47% hard hit rate. There’s a near 38% difference between his hard and soft contact to lefties. My focus will be on the usual suspects here. Lowe ($2.8k), Meadows ($3.6k), and Choi ($3.1k) all have strong numbers against Dunn’s pitch profile. If you want really cheap exposure here, Kiermaier ($2.2k) also profiles really well in this spot.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
With no true aces tonight outside of an overpriced Ohtani, we have some solid pitchers in price ranges that will allow us to get some of the higher priced bats. This has the makings of a high offense type of night.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!
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