Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 four game slates of MLB DFS to navigate through on Fanduel. And navigating is absolutely what we’ll need to do.
Pitching on both slates today leaves a lot to be desired and no one could be deemed ‘safe’. There are no clear cut aces and some bombshells out there that we’ll need to be careful of.
With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Early Slate Aces
Domingo German ($9k) vs. Texas Rangers – We saw what Kluber did last night to this team. The Rangers for the season have not been good against righties. They have a 27% K rate, a .154 ISO, and .697 OPS. They are attackable.
German is a model of consistency. He has 5 straight starts of 6 k’s. On a day like today where pitching options are limited, if we can get another 6k’s out of German and get the QS bonus we should be extremely pleased. Both are very attainable.
Tyler Mahle ($9.9k) vs. San Francisco Giants – Mahle has been good, but not great. For the year he has a 29.5% K rate and is facing off against a Giants team that is K’ing at a 28.6% clip against righties. The Giants do have some pop against righties this season with a .179 ISO.
Mahle faced the Giants earlier this year and did have some success with 7 punch outs and only 1 ER. I’m not a huge fan of the pitching environment as it should be about 80 degrees at first pitch and GAB can be a launching pad when it gets warm but I don’t think Mahle will kill you today. Since our options are limited, he’s in play.
Rich Hill ($9.3k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – I should preface this choice with saying that Orioles have been pretty good against lefties this year. They aren’t K’ing much and have pretty decent power numbers. As a team they have a .754 OPS and .328 wOBA against lefties.
Not something we’d normally pick on. I’m going here more for pitch selection. Hill is mostly a curveball pitcher. Looking at the lineup they’ll probably throw out only Austin Hays has a whiff rate less than 30% and that’s an extremely small sample size. This team also doesn’t generate much power vs. the curveball. If Hill goes with a curveball heavy game plan today he should find success.
MLB DFS: The Early Slate Bats
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Dean Kremer – Sorry Dean, today’s not going to be fun for you. White Sox vs. lefties, Tampa Bay Rays vs. righties. For the season the Rays have .173 ISO and wRC+ of 111 against righties. They’re facing off against a pitcher that has given up 8 homers in only 31 innings of work.
It should be in the mid 80’s here in Baltimore today and balls fly out of Camden when it’s warm. There’s no reason to get fancy here with no priced up starters. Randy Arozarena ($3k), Austin Meadows ($3.3k), JI-Man Choi ($3.3k), and Brandon Lowe ($3.1k) are all way too cheap for the match-up.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Johnny Cueto – Cueto hasn’t been bad this year. He’s sporting a 3.65 xFIP. His last two starts however have seen a downward trend. He gave up 8 hits in only 3 IP against the Padres and then 8 hits in only 4 IP against the Pirates. Father time catching up with Cueto? Certainly possible.
Reds have been great this season against righties. They have a team OPS of .768, wOBA of .336, and ISO of .180. All signs point the Reds putting up a big number today.
Chicago Cubs vs. Joe Ross – Ross has 2 outings this year where he’s given up 8 runs or more. He has the propensity to give up a big game. Of all the pitchers on the early slate today, he has the highest xFIP on the season at 4.8.
While the Cubs aren’t the Cubs of old, I still like them today. Here’s why. Ross mostly throws a sinker, 43% of the time to righties and 38% to lefties. Up and down the lineup we have guys on the Cubs who have had success against this pitch. Especially Joc Pederson ($2.4k) and Ian Happ ($2.8k). Both have wOBA’s over .450 to this pitch from righties.
MLB DFS: The Early Slate Wrap Up
Go light. That’s all I have to say. The goal for pitching on this slate will be to find the guy w/ the safest floor who also allows for upside. I think we have that in German.
MLB DFS: The Main Slate Aces
If you thought pitching was suspect on the early slate, wait until you see the main slate!
Vince Velasquez ($7.9k) vs. Miami Marlins – He’s probably going to be the popular choice tonight. Marlins are not a lineup that scares most and with Velasquez we have a pitcher that has upside with a near 29% K rate.
Marlins are K’ing 26.7% of the time vs. righties on the year and their power numbers are pretty low with a .125 ISO. With limited options on the slate, Velasquez is going to be the “safest” option. I say that as I’m gritting my teeth.
Sandy Alcantara ($9.3k) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Yes, Sandy gave up 8 ER in 1 IP last outing. It was against the Dodgers so I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt that it was the outlier in what has been a pretty good campaign.
For the year, Alcantara has a 3.74 xFIP and 14.4% whiff rate. The Phillies, like their opponent, have struggled vs. righties this year. They have a 26% K rate and .141 ISO. While this lineup has some scary bats in Harper, Hoskins, and Cutch to an extent, they’ve largely under-performed this year and because of that I’m OK with attacking them.
Drew Smyly ($7.3k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – I’m sticking with the first two pitchers tonight, but if you need a cheaper arm you could do worse than Smyly.
After a rough start to the year Smyly has shown some life in his last 2 starts. Two straight QS and 4 k’s in each. He’s not going to win you a GPP (crazier things have happened this year though), but with the match-up against the Pirates tonight he should do well enough to keep you above the cash line.
MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Merrill Kelly – Dodgers somewhat disappointed last night, scoring 3 late runs and not a whole lot of offense. That should change tonight. They get to face off against Kelly who has one of the highest xFIP’s on the slate. He’s giving up a ton of hard contact at 40% and not missing many at bats with a low whiff rate of 7.8%. His low 90’s fastball should not hold up well against this lineup.
With pitching being on the cheaper side tonight, we shouldn’t struggle to make a solid lineup with Mookie Betts ($4.4k), Max Muncy ($3.9k), and Justin Turner ($3.7k). All should do some serious damage tonight to Kelly’s pitch profile.
Boston Red Sox vs. Steven Matz – It’s crazy to think that Matz has the lowest xFIP on the slate. For the most part, he’s been pretty good this year. He’s had a couple of rough outings this season and those were all against teams that do really well against lefties. Nationals, Oakland, and Houston.
In Boston, we have a team that dominates lefties. To the tune of a .772 OPS and just a 19.4% K rate. On paper, you can’t ask for a better match-up. Matz predominantly throws his sinker to both righties and lefties. Enrique Hernandez ($2.7k), JD Martinez ($4.3k), Hunter Renfroe ($2.5k), and Xander Bogaerts ($3.6k) all have a ton of success against this pitch from lefties. This should be a tough match-up for Matz today.
Atlanta Braves vs. Wil Crowe – Crowe hasn’t been blown up yet so far this year. It’s coming folks, and I want to be a part of it. We have a pitcher in Crowe that doesn’t miss many at bats with a whiff rate of only 8.4%. Of the contact the he gives up it’s, 88% of the time it’s either hard or medium contact. With giving up so much contact, and in that range of hard to medium it’s only a matter of time before things go south, and really south.
The Braves present that match-up tonight. We’ve documented their struggles against lefties, but against righties they’ve been pretty damn good. They have a .191 ISO and .737 OPS. I smell a Ronald Acuna ($4.4k) lead-off homer tonight. If you aren’t going full stack on the Braves I really do love a 1-2 combo with Acuna and Freddie Freeman ($4.1k) tonight. Both profile really well against Crowe.
MLB DFS: The Main Slate Wrap-up
Offense should rule the night. Half the teams tonight have really solid match-ups and should put up big numbers. With no expensive pitchers, we should be able to pay up for any bat that we want.
Good luck today and tonight and hope to see you in the green!
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