Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 9 gameslate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. We are heading into the final weekend and we still have some teams battling for their playoff live. Phillies are on the cusp of elimination as they sit 4.5 games out. One more loss for them or one more win for the Braves and they are out. Giants still hold a 2 game lead over the Dodgers for the NL West and you can be rest assured both teams are going to bust their tails to ensure they don’t have to play in the Wild Card game against a surging Cardinals team.
We are now down to 4 teams remaining in the AL Wild Card race. Toronto is one game out of the Wild Card while the Mariners are just a half game. Bos and NYY currently hold both the AL Wild Cards. This is shaping up to be just an awesome last few days of baseball.
Let’s dig in to today’s slate!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Nick Pivetta ($6.8k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – This is the cheapest that Pivetta has been all year and we’re getting him in a spot where he can really succeed. Orioles over the last week are striking out more than 28% of the time while also not hitting for much power. The projected lineup for the Orioles tonight is almost entirely right handed and that sets up great for Pivetta.
Over the last month Pivetta is striking out righties at a 29% clip. If Pivetta’s curveball is on tonight he has a really great chance of having a ceiling type game. Up and down the Orioles lineup we have extremely high whiff rates vs. the curveball. I’ll never be comfortable going all in on Pivetta, but this is a great spot for him tonight. Oh, and he’s dirt cheap.
Rich Hill ($7.4k) vs. Miami Marlins – They throw from different sides of the mound, but if Taijuan Walker can dominate the Marlins, I guess anyone can right? Walker aside, I really like Hill’s chances of having a solid game tonight. At 41 years old you have to wonder if tonight is his last pitch. So I’m going narrative season here. I think Hill puts forth 100% effort tonight vs. a Marlins team that is striking out almost 26% of the time vs. lefties over the last month.
With Hill on the hill (see what I did there), you essentially neutralize the Marlin’s best 2 hitters in Chisholm and Sanchez. Both guys have K rates greater than 30% to lefties. Hill pitched against this same Marlins team on 9/8 and had his best outing as a Mets pitcher. He should do it again tonight. Dick Mountain has himself a game a tonight.
Robbie Ray ($10.8K) vs. New York Yankees – I’m a little gun shy about using Ray here. The Yankees lineup is rolling and let’s be honest, paying almost $11k for a pitcher that’s not in top form screams high risk and low reward. With that being said, no pitcher on tonight’s slate rivals Ray in terms of K rate. Over the last month his K rate is still sitting at nearly 36%. We’ve seen the Yankees struggle at times vs. lefties this year and if there’s a lefty to struggle against, it’s Ray.
The Yankees as a whole struggle vs. sliders. Guys like Stanton and Judge have whiff rates at 50% or greater vs. the pitch when coming from lefties. If we get Ray’s A slider tonight he can definitely get past this lineup, but if it’s the slightest bit off he’s going to struggle. My early lean is to go with either Pivetta or Hill, but if we see Ray’s ownership being low I may jump on him.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Vince Velasquez – I almost never use Dodgers bats. Tonight is a night I plan on loading up. We have a large enough body of work on Velasquez to know that as a whole, his career has been a fairly large disappointment. On the year Velazquez has a 5.11 xFIP and both sides of the plate have been able to do damage against him. Both sides have ISO’s over .200 and wOBA’s over .330.
Since I’m not overly concerned with platoon splits here my Dodgers stack is going to focus on the guys that are hot right now. Turner ($4.3k), Pollock ($3.1k), and Seager ($3.9k) all are smashing the ball right now with OPS’s at or over 1.300 over the past week. Turner is the best of the bunch right now as he has 4 barrels in his last 22 at bats. The Padres dug deep into their bullpen yesterday so my hope is they give Velasquez a longer leash tonight.
Boston Red Sox vs. Alexander Wells – Boston has a very soft grip on the second wild card spot. With a match up against Wells they have a chance to get their lead up to a full game with Mariners having an off day. The Sox faced off against Wells 11 days ago and had some solid results. They were able to tag him with 5 runs in 5 innings. I don’t see why tonight will be any different.
Wells is someone that just gives up way too much contact. Over the last month he has just a 5.7% swinging strike rate. While he doesn’t give up a ton of hard contact, he tends to make mistakes that always cost him as nearly 20% of his fly balls leave the park. Not a good ratio. Any Red Sox stack against a lefty has to start with Hunter Renfroe ($3.6k).
Over the last month he has a near .400 wOBA and .200 ISO. One guy that I’m not going to shy away from in a L/L match up is Kyle Schwarber ($3.8k). Schwarber is extremely solid against lefties as he has a .222 ISO and .454 wOBA against them in September. The last guy I’ll prioritize here is Dalbec ($3k) who is also crushing lefties in September with a .517 ISO. That’s pretty good! Red Sox still have something to play for and I think they put up a huge number tonight.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Ian Anderson – Phillies have to win out and the Braves lose out to force a playoff for the NL East. They are going to give it their all tonight and they have an exploitable match up. Anderson is probably the weak link in the Braves rotation and he’s been pretty bad over the past 30 days. His xFIP is approaching 6 and he’s giving up a ton of fly balls. The Phillies get to him tonight.
Where we want to attack Anderson is with lefties as they have a .680 ISO against him over the past 30 days. That was not a fat finger moment. It’s really that high. My core with the Phillies will be Harper ($4.4k) and Brad Miller ($2.5k). Both guys are crushing righties in the month of August, with Harper having a .508 ISO and Miller a .362 ISO. The only chance that the Phillies have of winning tonight is if these 2 guys perform the way they should in a great match up. Herrera ($2.9k) and Didi ($2.7k) can also be added to this stack but aren’t a priority. Harper and Miller are the ones I want here.
If you want to get a little crazy tonight, and who doesn’t, add some Yankees to your lineup. Stanton ($4.1k) and Judge ($4.3k) have crushed lefties over the last month and could get to Ray. Yes, I wrote up Ray tonight because he’s the best pitcher on the slate. That said, his ownership should be high today and if he faulters and you have Yankees in your lineup you’ll be at the top of the leaderboards.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
We are in the home stretch folks. It’s the last few days of the regular season. This time of the year can be tough but it’s also a time of the year to sit back and really enjoy the game. Teams that are in the hunt will play with extra emotion and I expect the Dodgers and Red Sox to go full ham tonight.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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