Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Tonight we have a nice sized 9 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Chris Sale ($10.7k) vs. Minnesota Twins – Through his first 2 outings after a couple of years off Sale has looked like his old self. He’s sporting a sub 2 xFIP and has a 32.5% K rate. While there’s a concern he won’t go deep, what he’s doing while he is on the mound is what we should be concerned with.
Sale is a master as keeping batters on their toes. He has a 38.9% chase rate and just a 64% zone swing rate. Both numbers indicate that batters really have no idea what to do when he’s throwing to them. If he goes deeper than he has in his first two outings today he should have no issue paying off his salary.
Max Scherzer ($10.5k) vs. San Diego Padres – If I had to pick between Sale and Scherzer I’d probably lead with Max right now due to we know exactly what we’re going to get. A dominant pitcher with little to no restrictions.
Since joining the Dodgers Max has a 32% K rate, a 13.5% swinging strike rate, and a 13.5% CSW. He’s elite, there’s no other way to really describe. While the Padres may sound like a tough match up, they really haven’t been setting the world on fire of late.
Over the past week they have a 26% K rate with just a handful of barrels and homers from their star players. Max will more than likely be my SP1 tonight.
Alex Wood ($8.2k) vs. New York Mets – The Mets psyche is totally broken at the moment and it’s something we should take advantage of. The projected lineup tonight has a 28.9% K rate vs. lefties over the past month and just a .111 ISO.
Both of those numbers are just dreadful from a team that was supposed to walk away with the division. Wood himself has been pretty decent over the same 30 days. He’s sporting a 3.56 xFIP and a sub 30% hard hit rate. Wood is my high risk/high reward pick of the night.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Cleveland Indians vs. Jordan Lyles – The Indians get to take on a pitcher tonight in Lyles that has just not been good at all this year. If we look at some recent data on Lyles we can see he’s giving up a healthy dose of fly balls and hard hits. His fly ball rate is 45% and his hard hit rate is 45%.
That’s a lethal combo for a pitcher. It adds up to him giving up 7 homers and 13 barrels in his last 31 innings. He’s been especially bad against lefties over that stretch as they’ve tagged him for a .379 wOBA and a .333 ISO. Insert Jose Ramirez ($4.4k) into my lineups.
He’s been crushing righties over the last month with a .361 ISO and .413 wOBA. He’s my core to the Indians stack tonight. My hope is that Daniel Johnson ($2.3k) makes the lineup tonight. In a smalls sample size of 13 PA against lefties in August he has a .250 ISO and .402 wOBA against righties. If he plays he’ll be right next to Ramirez in my lineup.
Another guy on the Indians that’s hot and will be sure to be in play tonight is Amed Rosario ($3.3k). He had a 10 game hitting streak snapped last night. He’s been super-hot and the matchup tonight should be good for him to get back on track.
Kansas City Royals vs. Yusei Kikuchi – Kikuchi has really hit a rough patch over the past 30 days. Some of it has been unlucky, but some of it has been his own doing. His fly ball rates and hard hit rates aren’t “bad” as they are middle of the pack. More than a quarter of his fly balls are leaving the park though and he’s been giving up way too many walks. His 5.48 BB/9 has led to a 1.87 WHIP over the past 30 days and both of those numbers are tops of all pitchers going tonight.
Kikuchi’s splits have been pretty clear. Play righties against him as they have a .306 ISO against him over the last month. The guy that immediately gets my interest here is Perez ($3.4k). He’s been crushing lefties all year long with a .349 ISO and .420 wOBA.
While he doesn’t necessarily hit for power, Merrifield ($3.9k) is another guy that will be sure to be in my Royals stack. Over the last 30 days he has a .378 wOBA against lefties. If you want to get a little crazy with the Royals stack, add in Michael Taylor ($2.7k) and his .438 wOBA against lefties.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Zac Gallen – Gallen hasn’t been that bad of late, but he has very clear splits over the last month that we can really take advantage of. Over the last 30 days Gallen has been getting mauled by righties. They have a .375 ISO and .380 wOBA against him. They also have a 71% hard hit rate against him.
Those numbers are really bad and with the Phillies having some really solid right handed bats the bleeding won’t stop tonight. Rhys Hoskins ($4.1k) is the bat that comes to mind first. Since coming back from the IL he has 3 homers in 2 games. He also has been crushing righties on the year with a .262 ISO, a.345 wOBA, and a near 50% fly ball rate. He goes yard tonight.
JT Realmuto ($3.5k) is another guy I’ll want in this matchup as he has a 46% hard hit rate vs. righties over the last month. Even though Gallen tends to do well against lefties, there’s no denying the spot that Harper ($4.1k) is in. He’ll see mostly fastballs from Gallen and over the last few years he has a .350 ISO against righty fastballs. These 3 all have a chance at homering tonight.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
With pitching tonight I’ll more than likely stay in the upper tier as both Sale and Scherzer should do really well. In terms of hitting, Cleveland and KC both fit very well together and they will be the main part of my build.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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