Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a rather small 6 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
As is what we’ve become accustomed to, tonight’s slate is void of any ace. The good, this means we can essentially grab almost any bat bad we want. The bad, it means we’ll have to really dig in to find a pitcher that will provide us a safety net while also providing upside.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Touki Toussaint ($8.5k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Toussaint now has 3 starts under his belt for the year. Two very good ones, one very poor one. His poor start was his last outing and it was against a streaking Brewers team. When the Brewers are on, they are one of the toughest lineups to face so I’m going to cut Toussaint some slack.
Toussaint has historically been better against righties than lefties. Over the course of the last few years his K rate is significantly higher at 26.6% vs. just 21% against lefties. This year it’s over 30% to righties.
The lineup that he’s going to face tonight will be almost entirely righty with the exception of Carlson and Erdman. With pitching lacking tonight I want to go with the guys that have the most strikeout ability and Toussaint will bring us that. No pitcher is safe tonight and Toussaint is no exception.
Sonny Gray ($9.3k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – Over the past 30 days Gray has seen a mixed bag of results. His last outing was superb, striking out 7 Mets and only giving up 1 run in 6 innings of work. The outing prior he gave up 8 runs in just 3 innings with only 3 strike outs against the Cards.
Gray has been a bit unlucky over the past month as his BABIP is close to .400. With tonight’s match up against the Pirates we should land somewhat closer to the Mets outing than the Cards. The Pirates lineup is nothing to be intimidated by, especially with Frazier shipped out of town. Look for Gray to continue the momentum from his last start.
Framber Valdez ($9.7k) vs. Minnesota Twins – I will feel a lot more comfortable using Valdez if Donaldson sits again. It takes a righty out and gets another lefty in the lineup in Arraez. This would be a big win for Valdez as his K rate is almost 30% vs. lefties vs. just 21% for righties.
What I like the most about Valdez is that he provides us with somewhat of a floor. He hasn’t scored lower than 18 FD points all year, with only 2 outings under 20. With how volatile pitching has been this year, the floor is something we’ll need and want. While my early lean is to go with either Gray or Toussaint, the Twins lineup will dictate whether or not I play Valdez.
MLB DFS: The Bats
With brutal pitching comes a healthy amount of stacks. We have no shortage of viable stacks tonight.
Kansas City Royals vs. Dallas Keuchel – Over the past 30 days Keuchel has been a home run derby pitcher. He’s given up 8 in just 23 innings of work. That’s just an insane rate. A lot of is attributed to his bread and butter pitcher getting smoked this year.
Batters have a .559 slugging percentage and .414 wOBA against his sinker this year. The Royals have a handful of guys that have crushed sinkers this year. My core with the Royals will be built around Salvador Perez ($3.3k) who has a .466 slugging % and a 49% hard hit rate against sinkers this year with a whiff rate of less than 17%.
Other guys of interest here will be Whit Merrifield ($3.1k) and Michael Taylor ($2.2k) as they both have wOBA’s close .400 vs. the pitch.
Chicago White Sox vs. Daniel Lynch – In his first start after getting recalled from the minors we a saw a glimpse of why Lynch is a top pitching prospect for the Royals as he shut out the Tigers through 8. In his next outing we also saw a glimpse that he still needs some work to a reliable starter in the bigs.
He gets a very daunting task of facing one of the best teams vs. lefties in the White Sox. On the year they have .755 OPS and .328 wOBA. My main target here will be Jose Abreu ($3.4k) and his .303 ISO against lefties this year. The other 2 I’m looking at in this lineup that I’ll want to prioritize are Andrew Vaughn ($2.8k) and Cesar Hernandez ($3.1K).
Both guys have ISO’s approaching .300 against lefties on the year and line up fairly well with the Fastball, Slider, and Change up mix they’ll see tonight. White Sox were embarrassed by the Royals in front of the home fans last night. I expect them to return the favor with a big number tonight
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Triston McKenzie – McKenzie has gotten rocked in 2 of his last 3 outings. He gave up 5 ER and 2 homers vs. the Astros and 6 ER and 3 homers vs. White Sox. In between was a solid outing vs. the Rays.
The match up tonight is very similar to the match up that he had against the Astros and White Sox as both of those teams are heavy with right handed bats, just like the Blue Jays. McKenzie’s splits on the year show us he’s been way more susceptible to power from righties as his ISO is 80 points higher against them.
His hard hit rate jumps from 33% against lefties to a whopping 49% against righties. Vlad Guerrero ($4.6k) and George Springer ($4.2k) all have ISO’s greater than .360 on the year against righties. They will be chalky, but on a short slate like tonight we almost have to eat the inevitable chalk.
One way we can differentiate ourselves is by going with a 9,1,2 stack and use Kirk ($2.2k) who is near min priced tonight. After a little bit of a cold stretch with the bats, the Blue Jays are starting to heat up and I want to be along for the ride.
Another spot we can look at tonight to sprinkle in batters will be Cleveland vs. Stripling. Stripling is someone we can always rely on to give up at least one homer. The top of the Indians lineup with Rosario ($2.8K) and Zimmer ($2.2k) is very cheap and may help us afford the likes of Guerrero and Springer.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
Pitching is going to give us heart burn tonight. I don’t think there’s anyway around it. There’s no clear cut ace and none of the pitchers really scream to us, “I’m safe”. Bats will be plenty as there will be a ton of desirable spots for offense.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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