Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 slates of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. A 4 game noon slate and a 5 game main slate.
For the first time in a while Fanduel split the slates properly. I’ll be walking you through options I like for both slates. We have a couple of decent pitching options on both slates and some solid stacks.
Let’s dig in to today’s slate!
MLB DFS: The Early Slate Aces
Gerrit Cole ($10.8K) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – After a stretch in June where Cole was really struggling with getting batters out and striking them out, it appears he has regained his form. Over the past 30 days Cole has a near 38% K rate and he’s brought his hard hit rate back down to just 26.9%.
The Rays hit for a lot of power, but we also know that if they aren’t hitting for power, they’re also striking out. Against righties this year they have a 25.5% K rate. Pitching against the Rays is never easy, but I like Cole to continue his stretch of solid pitching.
Luis Castillo ($8.9k) vs. Chicago Cubs – It’s only a matter of time before the tear down of the Cubs happens. We’re quickly approaching the deadline and I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to see some of the guys sit or get traded before the game.
In Castillo we’re getting a pitcher that’s been in excellent form. His last 2 starts have been arguably his best. He has 17 K’s in his last 13 innings of work. Look for Castillo to continue his solid string of outings with another dominant performance today.
Alec Mills ($7.1k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – I will be sticking with the top 2 pitchers on the day slate, but if you want to get a little crazy (and who doesn’t like getting a little crazy every now and then) you want to take a look at Mills. There’s been a noticeable trend with the Reds in getaway days.
The offense generally is quiet and with the weather today being pitcher friendly Mills may be a good option. Over the last 30 days he’s actually been pretty good with a 3.53 xFIP that matches his ERA. His K rate is hovering around the 25% mark as well. Not a ‘wow’ guy, but he’s serviceable and should perform well today.
MLB DFS: The Early Slate Bats
Chicago White Sox vs. Carlos Hernandez – White Sox largely disappointed last night. I’m going right back to the well today because they get a match-up with a pitcher that’s been giving up a lot of hard contact and a lot of fly balls. Over the past 30 days Hernandez is giving up a 41% hard hit rate with a 48% fly ball rate.
Hernandez doesn’t go deep so it means the Royals rely heavily on the bullpen when he pitches. In his last 7 outings the opposing team has scored 5 runs or greater in every outing. Hernandez’s fly ball rate shoots up to 50% against lefties so I want to ensure that Moncada ($3k), Sheets ($2.3k), and Goodwin ($2.4k) are in any White Sox stack today.
New York Mets vs. Drew Smyly – Really like this spot for the Mets today. Smyly is a very attackable pitcher. He’s a low strike out guy who’s been putting a lot of batters ton. His WHIP over the past 30 days is 1.43. If the Mets can show some patience today they should be able to get some runners on base for guys like Alonso ($3.6k) and Davis ($2.9k). Both guys should see a heavy dose of fastballs as Smyly throws it around 50% of the time to righties.
New York Yankees vs. Luis Patino – I should start with saying that Patino is a top pitching prospect. He’ll be a solid pitcher at the Major League level at some point. He’s just not there yet. It’s been a struggle so far and if we look at his performance during July we can see we have a pitcher that we can attack.
He’s had a 38% hard hit rate and a near 49% fly ball rate. Until he can show he can consistently get hitters out, he’s someone we should attack. He tends to do worse against righties so I’m going to load up on the likes of Stanton ($3.4k), Judge ($4k), and Torres ($3.6k). All 3 have solid power numbers against sliders and they should see a healthy dose of them.
MLB DFS: The Main Slate Aces
Frankie Montas ($8.8k) vs. Los Angeles Angels – On FD tonight i really don’t think you’ll need to stray from Montas. He’s cheap, he’s in peak form, and he’s facing a beaten up lineup that’s even more beaten up with Walsh going on the IL yesterday.
Montas over the last 30 days has a 30% K rate, a 3.27 xFIP, and just a 25% hard hit rate. It’s baseball and anything can happen, but he really is in a smash spot tonight. Outside of Ohtani, this is not an intimidating lineup. Montas is my SP1 tonight.
Freddy Peralta ($9.7k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – This is a little bit more than I’d like to pay for Peralta being that he hasn’t pitched past the sixth inning in more than a month and he’ll continue to not go deep. But we’re very limited with pitching tonight so he’s one of the pitchers I’ll consider.
On the year Peralta has a 35% K rate which is one of the best in the game. The biggest red flag tonight with Peralta is that he’s facing a lineup that just doesn’t K much as the projected lineup has just a 22% K rate vs. righties this year.
Alex Cobb ($8.6k) vs. Oakland Athletics – If Cobb does indeed start tonight he’ll be in my top 3 pitchers to use. He’s not a sexy pick as his K rate is only 21% over the last 30 days and isn’t much higher if we look at the year as a whole.
He is someone though that gives us one of the higher ceilings on the slate as he’s reached 45 FD points on multiple occasions over the past month and a half. While i will probably stick with Montas in this range, Cobb shouldn’t be too far behind in terms of results.
MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats
Detroit Tigers vs. Alex Wells – Who would have thought at the start of the year that the Tigers would be such a popular team to use as a stack? Not me. But here we are approaching August and the Tigers continue to put up big numbers.
Tonight they get a solid match up against a pitcher giving up lots of contact. In just 9 innings of work this year he’s given up a 46% hard hit rate and near 40% fly ball rate. With not being a high swing and miss guy, those numbers aren’t going to cut.
He throws is fastball more than 50% of the time and the Tigers have a bunch of guys that crush fastballs. My main targets here are Haase ($3.2k), Cabrera ($2.5k), and Schoop ($3.5k). Schoop will need to be monitored as he was a late scratch yesterday.
Baddoo ($3.5k) is hot and should also be a focus even though it’s a L/L match-up. Can’t expect Wells to go that long and at some point he’ll face a righty out of the pen.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Casey Mize – This is more a testament to the Tigers bullpen than it is for Mize. Mize hasn’t pitched more than 4 innings in more than a month and we can’t really expect anything different tonight. We saw yesterday that the Tigers pen is prone to blow ups.
This game has the makings of a nice game stack. If we focus on Mize he has very clear splits. He is far more dominant vs. righties so we’ll want to key in on the Orioles lefties.
Mullins ($3.1k) and Stewart ($2.1k) are my primary targets as both guys have upside and Stewart is near min priced. While the rest of the Orioles are secondary pieces based on Mize, they turn to primary pieces once we get into the bullpen.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chad Kuhl – Kuhl has been much better over the past 30 days. His strikeouts are up and his xFIP is down. That said, I still want to pick on him because the Brewers lineup is hot with 4 of their last 5 games being at 6 runs or better.
Kuhl tends to give up harder contact against lefties and the Brewers have a few that we can attack him with. Wong ($3k), Narvaez ($2.4k), and Tellez ($2.2k) are my prime targets. If Escobar plays tonight he’s also be someone I’ll want to focus on.
Bonus Stack – Toronto Blue Jays vs. Eduardo Rodriguez – There’s some weather concern in this game so I have it down on my list a bit. Blue Jays though are in a great spot. While Rodriguez has pitched well in his last couple of outings he’s also had a handful of outings this year where he’s blown up, with one coming against the Blue Jays in May.
Blue Jays line up very well with Rodriguez and his pitch type. They are a right handed heavy team and Rodriguez will throw them plenty of fastballs and change ups. We know that the Blue Jays are elite against fastballs, but they’re also great against change ups.
Guerrero ($4.5k), Semien ($3.8k), and Hernandez ($3.5k) all have ISO’s great than .200 against change ups. This could be another rough outing for Hernandez.
MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats
Both slates today will have limited pitching options. I will be focusing my efforts on Castillo in the early slate and Montas in the main slate. With limited pitching options we typically see great stacking opportunities and today is no exception.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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