Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 7 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
With this slate we have a pitcher’s duel out west with Darvish vs. Mad Max. Both guys should be fun to watch tonight. We also have my favorite pitcher to stack against, Mr. J.A. Happ.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Max Scherzer ($10.9k) vs. San Diego Padres – This isn’t going to be the easiest of match-ups for Scherzer as the Padres have a potent lineup. That said, if there’s anyone out there that can silence the Padres it’s Scherzer.
On the year Max has a 35.4% K rate. If we look at his splits, it’s been pretty even against both sides of the plate. I’m siding with Max in this match-up due to his pitch mix. He throws his slider more than 38% of the time to righties and it’s a pitch he can silence Tatis and Machado with. Both have high whiff rates against this pitch. If you can silence those 2 guys, you’re off to a good start. Not an easy match-up for Scherzer tonight, but he’s my SP1.
Taijuan Walker ($9.5k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – We’ll need to monitor the weather in this game as there is rain in the forecast this evening. If the game plays, I really like Walker tonight. While the Pirates aren’t going to K much, Walker should do enough to return value.
Over the past month his K rate is right up there with Scherzer and Darvish. It’s sitting right around the 30% mark. He’s been doing this by really fooling batters. He has the lowest swing rate in the zone of any pitcher going tonight. By a pretty wide margin too. Batters have only been swinging at 64% of his pitches in the zone. Look for Walker to have one of his better games tonight.
Tarik Skubal ($8.2k) vs. Minnesota Twins – This is more of a boom or bust pick which is ideal for GPP’s. I’m chasing the upside of Skubal in this one. He’s gotten at least 6 K’s in 8 of his last 9 games and the Twins have been striking out a bunch over the past week. Their K rate over the past week is 27% which is the third highest of any team going tonight.
Yes, this match-up poses a risk for Skubal because the Twins have been really good against lefties this year with a lot of power. However, Skubal has shown at times he can handle teams that are solid against lefties with great games against the White Sox, Yankees, and Houston. This is a high risk/high reward pick that is not for the faint of heart.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Detroit Tigers vs. J.A. Happ – It wouldn’t be a Happ slate without me recommending bats against him. Are the Tigers a good offense? Nope. Is Happ a bad pitcher? YES. In my mind bad hitting > bad pitching. While the projected Tigers lineup today has a 28% K rate vs. lefties, they also have a .352 wOBA and a .232 ISO.
Happ is not someone that I’m scared of in terms of strike outs. His CSW over the past month is just 23%. That is tied with Houser for the worst mark on today’s slate. Happ’s been especially bad to righties this year with a 46% fly ball rate and a 43% hard hit rate. I’m locking in Schoop ($3k), Haase ($2.9k), and Grossman ($3.3k). All have shown power against lefties this year with ISO’s great than .200.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Keegan Akin – This is going to be a chalky stack, but on a short slate sometimes you need to eat the chalk. Akin is giving up a homer every 3 innings over the past month. That’s just not good. If we look at this contact type, we also see he’s giving up a ton more hard contact than soft. His hard minus soft rate is sitting at 24% over the past month. Just not a pitcher you want on the hill facing the best lineup in baseball.
With the Orioles blowing through their pen last night due to another short outing from Harvey there’s a very good chance they ask Akin to go longer than he normally would if he gets shelled. This is a good thing for us. Guerrero ($4.7k), Gurriel ($3.3k), Hernandez ($3.5k), and Grichuk ($3.6k) are my main targets as they have had the best success against lefties this year.
Minnesota Twins vs. Tarik Skubal – If you aren’t using Skubal as your pitcher tonight, I highly recommend considering the Twins as a stack. While Skubal has made great strides over the past couple of months, he’s also still shown the propensity to give up homers and hard contact.
His hard hit rate over the past month is sitting close to 50% and his line drive % is nearly 28%. If he isn’t missing any bats, he’s giving up some pretty hard contact. With the Twins we’re getting a team that has been great this season vs. lefties. They own a 107 wRC+ and a .763 OPS. Both very strong indicators of success against south paws.
I’m focused on righties here as Skubal’s fly ball rate vs. righties this year is nearly 48% with a 40% hard hit rate. Cruz ($4k),Polanco ($3.1k), and Jeffers ($2.1k) are my main targets here.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
Weather will play a main factor tonight. Half the games are under the threat of rain or thunder showers. We’ll need to keep an eye on things and make sure our pitchers and batters are safe.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!
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