Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a smaller than usual 9 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
The east coast is still dealing with some rain so we’ll need to keep an eye on some spots today, including the Mil/Was which has the potential to be a pitcher’s duel. We have some good spots for hitting today, as well as a couple of aces on the hill.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Lucas Giolito ($10k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – White Sox are one of the heaviest favorites on the board today so we have a good chance at the 6 point win bonus with Gio. Giolito this season has been a model of inconsistency. At times he’s shown flashes of brilliance with his 11k performance against the Twins. This was after he got pummeled by the Royals for 5 ER in 6 IP.
My lean to Gio as my top pitcher today is he gets to face off against the Orioles. The Orioles present a nice match-up as they have struggled against righties this season. While their K rate is about average at near 25%, they have not hit for power with just a .140 ISO and .644 OPS. Gio has upside in this match-up. I think we can count on 7 IP and 7 K’s from him today while not allowing much damage.
Max Scherzer ($12k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Mad Max has the highest K rate of any pitcher on today’s main slate at 35.6%. He’s still one of the top pitchers in the game. Today he gets to throw against a team that has a 26.4% K rate to his handedness. They’ve also had limited power vs. righties with a .143 ISO and .637 OPS to righties. This all sets up nicely for Scherzer to have one of his better games on the year.
Kyle Freeland ($6.8k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – Freeland is making his second start of the year. Although he faced a pretty depleted lineup against the Mets in his first outing, he was still pretty good. He struck out 5 through 4 and only gave up 4 hits.
He gets to face off against a team today that hasn’t been able to do much damage to lefties. They have just a .633 OPS and .127 ISO. Although their K rate is on the lower side, my hope at his price point today is that we can get him through 6 to get the QS bonus while also K’ing 6. That would get us to the mid 30 FD points if he only gives up a couple of runs. Against this Pirates offense, that’s very doable.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Chicago White Sox vs. Keegan Akin – Any time the White Sox play against a lefty I’m going to automatically consider them. They have just insane numbers vs. lefties this season. A slate leading 131 wRC+, wOBA at .358, and a .826 OPS. They do damage to lefties and they do it often.
Akin today is making his first start of the season. He’s pitched briefly out of the pen, but if we go to a larger body of work for him we see that he’s very susceptible to righties and the White Sox have lots of them. In his brief career he’s given up a 48% fly ball rate and 44% hard hit rate to righties.
I’m hopeful that the Yankees will be the more popular choice today so that we can get the White Sox at a lower ownership %. The guys I’m targeting in this one will be Yoan Moncada ($3.5k), Jose Abreu ($4k), Yermin Mercedes ($2.8k), and Andrew Vaugh ($2.5k).
Cincinnati Reds vs. Jake Arrieta – Some of our discord members should really like this pick. Arrieta is really in the twilight of his career. This season has not been kind to him and you have to wonder if after this season he decides to call it a career.
He’s pitching to a 4.75 xFIP, giving up a ton of hard contact at 39% and not missing many bats with a whiff rate of just 8%. In the Reds he’s going to have a tough match-up. Reds on the season have a .758 OPS and .179 ISO to righties.
The top 4 in the Reds lineup all have a lot of success against the sinker which is Arrieta’s main pitch. Eugenio Suarez ($3.1k), Jesse Winker ($4.1k), Nick Castellanos ($4.2k), and Tyler Naquin ($2.8k) all should do well today.
New York Yankees vs. Tarik Skubal – Yes, Skubal has 2 very good outings in a row. He’s K’d 9 in each game. He also faced two poor offenses in the Indians and Mariners.
Skubal should come back down to earth today against the Yankees. The Yankees are just a far superior lineup than he’s faced recently. On the season, the Yankees have a .709 OPS and .310 wOBA to lefties. They also got Stanton back the other day who really solidifies this lineup.
Yankees are going to popular today. Do you trust the Skubal recency bias and hope the chalk misses? Or do you eat the chalk and hope that Skubal comes back down to earth?
I didn’t write them up but the Minnesota/Kansas City game should have some fireworks. The two pitchers have combined to give up 16 homers in 90 innings of work. I would not be surprised if this game was the highest scoring game of the slate.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
Remember to keep an eye on the east coast weather today. Games in Boston and DC should have some weather, with the Bos game being the riskiest. As always, keep an extra eye on your Sunday lineups as getaway day normally means some of your veterans/catchers tend to sit. This should be a fun slate with lots of offense.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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