Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 10 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
Today’s slate, like many Sundays, is void of true aces. We have some decent pitching options, but none that I’m 100% confident in. What I love about this slate though is that we have some of our normal targets.
With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Hyun-Jin Ryu ($8.9k) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – We saw last night what lefties can do to the Rays. Ray struck out 7 in 7 last night and the only damage he gave up was a Mike Zunino home run. The heart of the lineup really gets neutralized when a lefty is on the mound.
Today we get another pretty good lefty in Ryu. In his last 3 starts Ryu has had 2 games of 6 k’s and 7 in his last one. With a match-up against the Rays, there’s definitely some upside in that number. For the season, the Rays are striking out at a near 31% clip with limited power numbers to lefites. That’s one of the worst marks of any team. Look for a successful afternoon from Ryu.
Max Fried ($8.5k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – Fried has been pretty decent this season. Although he has a mid 5 ERA, both his SIERA and xFIP are hovering around the 4 mark which means he’s seen some bad luck on the season. He has a respectable K rate of around 25% but the sign that’s been the most encouraging is that he has a 26.5% soft hit rate.
With the Pirates being a soft hitting team, it really sets up well for Fried to have an upside type of game. They are striking out at a near 25% rate vs. lefties and a wRC+ of 79. At his price point today, I like Fried to get you some nice value. No reason to think he can’t get you 40+ points in this matchup.
Freddy Peralta ($9.9k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – I’ll be honest, I don’t love the match-up for Peralta today. For the season, the Reds have been really good against righties. The have a low strikeout rate of 22% and some meaty power numbers. Peralta, however, is the top pitcher on the slate with by far the highest K rate.
In DFS, K’s are king for pitchers. Peralta has only one outing this season where he’s had less than 7 K’s. He has a slate leading 39% K rate and there are only a few in the game with a higher K rate. Strike out pitchers will get their strike outs. While this is far from a safe match-up for Peralta, whenever he is on the mound he’s going to be a pitcher that needs to be in your pool.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Washington Nationals vs. Matt Harvey – The Harvey experiment in Baltimore has taken a turn for the worst. Luckily for us, Baltimore doesn’t have many other options on the horizon so they’ll continue to throw him out there. After a successful start to the year, Harvey has had 2 straight very rough outings, giving up 7 ER to his old team the Mets and 6 ER to the Rays.
Fanduel did price up the Nats a bit for today’s match-up with Harvey, but with the options laid out for pitching being on the cheaper end there’s no reason you aren’t able to squeeze the heart of the lineup in. I’m going to target Treat Turner ($4k), Juan Soto ($3.9k), Josh Bell ($3.5k), and Kyle Schwarber ($3.6k) in this one.
If you want to differentiate yourself a bit, you could also start this stack at Bell and add in Starlin Castro ($2.4k) and Josh Harrison ($3k). I’m a little sour on Soto right now. While he can get a hold of one at any moment, his negative launch angle really has me concerned.
Cleveland Indians vs. J.A. Happ – I’d love this lineup a lot more if Reyes was healthy. He left yesterday’s game after getting hurt on a swing. That said, I still really like the Indians vs. Happ today. Hap has by far the highest xFIP on the day. More than a full run higher than anyone else on the slate.
With most eyes being on the Nationals today, I think people will forget about the match-up here. Indians are far from a terrorizing lineup, especially without Reyes in there. Happ at this point in his career is just not. He’s given up 15 runs in his last 2 starts, albeit against the powerful lineup of the White Sox. He had been flirting with disaster all season but luck was on his side.
I probably won’t go full stack here, but I’m going to target the likes of Cesar Hernandez ($2.7k), Amed Rosario ($2.1k), and Jose Ramirez ($4k).
Houston Astros vs. Mike Foltynewicz – After giving up 11 homers through his first 7 starts of the year, Folty has managed to keep the ball in the park in his last 2 starts. Ironically, those 2 starts had 2 of his highest xFIPs this season.
Folty is someone that we should continue to target, especially when we have lineups like the Astros. The Astros faced Folty a couple of weeks ago, and although they only put up 3 runs against him, the metrics from that game indicated more could have been done.
Their hard + medium contact in that game was nearly 90%. With this being the 2nd time they are seeing him this season, I like their chances of putting up a much bigger number than they did last time out. I’m going to build my Astros stack around Yordan Alvarez ($3.3k). He profiles extremely well against the pitches that Folty throws.
Today is the last game in Dunedin, FL. While I didn’t write up the Blue Jays, I really like them today. They will most likely face off against a tandem of Michael Wacha and Josh Fleming. Wacha appears to be the opener with Fleming potentially coming in after him. If a more detailed plan like this comes out later this morning, I’d move the Blue Jays into the top 3 stacks. The usual suspects would be in play here.
I’d be remiss if I also didn’t mention the Orioles. Corbin has been someone that we have targeted often this season. As evidenced by their game yesterday, they can tag lefties.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
Is today the final start for Harvey as an Oriole? I hope not, but I’m going to target him like it is. This is setting up as a fun slate. Pitching, while mediocre, appears to be focused on only a handful of pitchers and offense looks to be spread out.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
