Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 10 game main slate on Fanduel and that’s what we’ll focus on today.
We have a healthy amount of pitching options today, some priced a little higher than I’d like. Bats, well those are a plentiful today!
With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
On the slate we have some pitches that are really priced up, but in pretty good spots.
Max Scherzer ($12k) vs. Miami Marlins – I’d be lying if I said this spot gave me the warm and fuzzies. Mad Max struggled in his last outing. I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt though as the game was played in Dunedin and that park is a hitter’s paradise. His two games prior were…excellent.
He’s facing a Miami squad today that really struggles vs. righties. They have a 26% k rate and a very low ISO and wOBA. All signs point to a nice rebound start for Scherzer. While the high hard hit rate does have me a bit concerned, he’s still only allowing a 68% contact rate which is one of the lowest marks for the pitchers going today.
Corey Kluber ($7.3k) vs. Detriot Tigers – Okay, this one may make you throw up in your mouth a bit. It’s ok if you do. These are GPP plays, not cash plays. Kluber looked much better in his last start vs. the O’s. It was his first QS of the season. It was also the first time this year he didn’t face a solid offense.
Guess what? He doesn’t face a one today either. He gets to take on the lowly Tigers (sorry Tigers fans.) Tigers are striking out more than 28% of the time when facing righties and have an extremely low wOBA of .281. Kluber is my cheap pick today if I’m fading the high priced arms. He only needs to get you through 5-6 innings with a handful of strikeouts to bring back value. With the matchup, I don’t see why he can’t do that today. He’s Kluber in 2021 so it’s not 100% safe, but I like my chances with him today.
Christian Javier ($9.4k) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – I normally don’t make it a habit of targeting the Rays with a pitcher. But with Javier on the mound today, I feel I need to. Javier has been pitching lights out this season. It’s now been a calendar month since he’s allowed a runner to score. His K rate of nearly 33% is one of the best marks of pitchers going today.
His number that impresses me the most though is his hard hit rate. He’s only allowing a 24.4% hard hit rate. That’s insanely low. In 20 IP this season, he’s only allowed 4 barrels. That too is great. The Rays have been mediocre against righties this season with an above age k rate and below average ISO and wOBA. All signs point to Javier continuing with his strong momentum.
Two other pitchers that should be considered today are Corbin Burnes ($11.1k) and Lucas Giolito ($10.6k). Both are elite, but caution surrounds both. Burnes is facing the Los Angeles Dodgers and Gio hasn’t been great in his last 2 starts.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Boston Red Sox vs. Folty – Folty has not been good this year. His ERA and xFIP closely align so all signs point to us getting what we expect out of him. Folty has given up 8 homers already this season, and we’re only just now entering May. The two guys that stand out first to me are Alex Verdugo ($3.2k) and Rafael Devers ($3.7k). Folty throws his sinker more than 26% of the time to lefties. Both guys have wOBA’s over .440 against this pitch. Add in JD Martinez ($4.2k) and Xander Bogaerts ($3.3k) to complete the 2-5 stack. This is a very affordable stack today and one that should pay dividends.
Houston Astros vs. Rich over the Hill – Sorry about that. Hill was splendid in his last outing. That outing to me was the anomaly and not the norm. He faced a team that was k’ing quite a bit to lefties.
Today, he doesn’t have that going for him. Astros for the season are only k’ing 18% of the time to lefties. Like Folty, Hill is giving up a ton of homers this season. 5 to be exact through only one month of work. Up and down the lineup, the Astros have guys that rake against lefties. Hill’s bread and butter pitch is his CB. Guys like Alex Bregman ($3.7K) and Yulieski Gurriel ($3.4k) have had great success against this pitch from lefties.
New York Yankees vs. Jose Urena – Yankee bats are really heating up. They’ve really taken advantage of the Tigers pitching. I don’t see any reason for that trend to stop today. Urena is a high contact pitcher, and a high hard contact pitcher. My one lane of caution with him is that he’s also a groundball pitcher. His goundball to flyball splits are extremely. 59% to 18%.
What does this mean? Yankees will have to score runs the old fashioned way. Put guys on, knock them home. Keep the carousel going. They scored 6 runs with no homers yesterday. No reason they can’t do something like that again today. Urena is a sinker ball pitcher. Stanton ($3.8k), Judge ($3.9k), Urshela ($2.9k), and Odor ($2.9k) all have cxwOBA’s over .400 against this pitch. Love this spot for the Yankees, not so much for Urena.
There’s a ton of offense to be had today. Atlanta Braves against Stripling and Minnesota Twins against Keller are also two more lineups I really like today.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
This has the makings of a great slate with tons of scoring. In my opinion, the key today will be picking the right pitchers as there are a healthy amount of offenses that should see success. Outside of some rain in Minnesota, weather looks perfect for this Sunday of baseball.
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