Jared Levitt 
Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have an 11 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
This slate has a few solid pitchers that are in really good spots that we can take advantage of. There are also some hitting spots that, although aren’t super clear, I think we can also take advantage of.
With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slate!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Danny Duffy ($8.8k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Duffy has been really good this year. Although his xFIP indicates there will be some regression from his .5 ERA, none of his underlying stats indicate it’s going to come anytime soon. For the season, Tigers have a 32.7% k rate vs. lefties. Although that number is really enticing, the number that stands out the most to me that indicates this is one of your safer avenues today is that their team ISO vs. lefties is only .09. They’re just not getting much done vs. lefties this year.
Now let’s circle back to Duffy and why I don’t think the regression is coming today. When giving up contact this year, he’s just not letting batters square him up. His soft hit rate is 22.9% and his hard hit rate is only 29.2%. The low hard hit rate plus low team ISO for the Tigers has me really loving this matchup.
Jameson Taillon ($7.2k) vs. Cleveland Indians – Really like this spot for Taillon today. The Indians haven’t been great against righties this season. They have a 26% k rate, a team wOBA of .279, and a team ISO of .153. This sets up well for Taillon who should see some positive regression today. His xFIP is a 1.3 runs lower than his 5.4 ERA. This season, he’s been K’ing more than 10 batters per 9 innings while really limiting his walks with only 1.35 per 9. The one area of concern for me with Taillon is that he’s a fly ball pitcher. One or two of those flyballs hit hard and this game can be completely different for him.
Taijuan Walker ($7.7k) vs. Washington Nationals – Walker has been a steal for the Mets so far this season. They signed him late in free agency and all he’s done is deal! Nationals broke out yesterday but I don’t think that happens 2 days in a row. Walker has a 12.21 k/9 this season. He’s been doing this by fooling batters. Batters are only swinging at 55% of his pitches in the zone. And when they do swing at pitches in the zone against him, they’re only making contact 74% of the time. Both great metrics. This Nationals lineup really takes a hit with Soto on the IL so I fully expect Walker to take advantage of it today.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Boston Red Sox vs. Nick Margevicius – I should warn you that weather may play a factor in this game. Actually, there’s a good chance it does. But if they play, this is a lineup I want a part of. Margevicius has been giving up a ton of hard contact this year at nearly 40%. He also hasn’t been missing many bats with a 7% whiff rate. Red Sox have a team wOBA of .335 vs. lefties this season. The two plays that really stand out here are JD Martinez ($4.3k) and Xander Bogaerts ($3.4k). Both have a wOBA vs. lefties of more than .400 since 2019. 2 other guys I really like in this matchup are Hernandez ($3k) and Vazquez ($2.7k) if he plays.
Chicago White Sox vs. Kohei Arihara – I will continue to stack against Arihara until it works for me. Arihara continues to give up a ton of contact, and hard contact. His whiff rate is low at 7.5% and his hard hit rate is 44.1%. He’s also given up 8 barrels this year. At some point, regression is going to come his way and I want to be a part of it. His xFIP is almost 2 runs higher than his ERA. It’s coming folks. Join me for the ride. 1-4 of the White Sox are underrated vs. righties. People think White Sox, they think attack against lefties. Anderson ($4k) has a .353 wOBA vs. righties since 2019, Eaton ($3.4k) .345, Moncada ($3.1k) .351 with a .209 ISO, and Abreu ($3.5K) .341 with a .229 ISO. W/ the Red Sox game being at risk, this is my favorite stack of the day.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Jack Flaherty – I normally wouldn’t stack against Flaherty, but I really like the Reds today. Flaherty throws is his fastball more than 48% of the time to lefties (and righties). 1-4 of the Reds all eat this pitch up. Winker ($3.9k) has a .431 cxwoba, Castellanos ($3.7k) .571, Votto ($3k) .482, and Suarez ($3.3k) .536. This isn’t a safe play by any means but I don’t think many people go here today. Reds have an implied run total of only 3.34 today. That’s really light in my opinion.
MLB DFS Aces and Bases Wrap Up
Today’s going to be a fun slate. There are no clear paths to victory and those are the days I enjoy the most and also the days where added research can help you over take your opponents.
As is always the case on Sunday, make sure you are checking lineups. Often a sit day for players w/ it being getaway day. Weather will play a factor today. Keep an eye on potentially delays/ppd risks.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
