Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 10 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. We have a great slate lined up with solid options in both.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Lance McCullers ($9.8k) vs. Minnesota Twins – McCullers has been on absolute fire over the past month. Over the last 30 days he has an elite 34% K rate and just a 2.53 xFIP. During that stretch he’s had a couple of really tough opponents in the Dodgers and White Sox.
Today he gets to take on a team that’s been struggling over the past week. The Twins have been striking out more than 28% of the time over the past week with limited power. The lineup he’s expected to face today has a 24% K rate on the year to righties. Look for McCullers to continue his string of solid outings.
Hyun Jin Ryu ($9.3k) vs. Boston Red Sox – Ryu gets to take on a Red Sox lineup today that will be without JD Martinez. That’s a huge positive for Ryu as it takes out a big lefty smasher from the lineup. After a little of a stretch where Ryu struggled, he’s been really solid of late.
In 4 of his last 5 outings he’s gone for 39 or more FD points, with a 43 point effort against these same Red Sox. Ryu throws his cutter more than 25% of the time. If it’s on today, he should continue his string of solid outings.
The Red Sox as a whole have really struggled against cutters this season. Bogaerts, Renfro, and Dalbec have all performed poorly against this pitch year and those are the guys you’d normally want to use against a lefty.
Max Fried ($8k) vs. Washington Nationals – Max Fried is another guy that’s rolling right now. In 3 of his last 4 outings he’s dialed it up to 46 or more FD points. Over the last month he has a 27% K rate with a near 29% CSW.
The Nationals are a team that we’ll want to continue to attack on a daily basis as they are a watered team compared to a month ago. If Fried can navigate through Soto and Bell today he should have no problem exceeding value at his $8k price tag.
I also do like Wheeler today quite a bit. My only concern with him is that the Mets did show some signs of life in the ninth last night and they are battling for their playoff lives. They are a team that may be hungrier than normal and could get to Wheeler early.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Taijuan Walker – As a Mets fan it really pains me to write the Phillies up as a top stack. But in DFS we need to push emotions aside and play the plays that make the most sense. The Phillies today make the most sense.
Walker was elite to start the season. So much that he was the Mets representative at the All Star game. It’s been a struggle for him since. Over the past month he has an xFIP sitting at 6.35. He has seen a regression in just about all the metrics.
With the Phillies bats being red hot and Walker struggling we have a possibility for a really big number from the Phillies today. My core will be built around Bryce Harper ($4.5k) who is on a heater right now. He has an OPS of 1.358 and wOBA of .539 over the past week. On the year he has a .337 ISO vs. righties. The other guys I’m going to build around him are Segura ($3.3k), Gregorius ($2.9k), and Miller ($2.2k).
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jorge Lopez – Camden Yards in the dog days of summer vs. a bad pitcher and a struggling bullpen. The Rays check all the boxes as a great stack. Lopez is a pitcher that we like to target because of how much hard contact he gives up. On the year he’s given up a near 40% hard hit rate.
The match up today is not a good one for Lopez. He is sinker ball pitcher and the Rays are one of the best teams in baseball against the sinker. Lopez is throwing his sinker around 35% of the time this year and it’s been getting drilled. Batters have a 47% hard hit rate against it and .472 slugging %.
My main target here will be Austin Meadows ($3.8k) who has .643 slugging % vs. sinkers this year to go with a 49% hard hit rate. He’s been a little cold of late and this a big break out opportunity for him today. Brett Phillips ($2.1k) is another guy I’ll want to target here if he cracks the lineup. He’s just about min priced and has a .564 against sinkers this year. Kevin Cash, don’t mess this up for me again today. Play these 2 guys if you are reading this.
Atlanta Braves vs. Patrick Corbin – Corbin has been in peak form over the past 30 days. He’s given up 7 homers in just 22 innings of work. It takes a lot of hard work to give up that many homers in such a low amount of innings. Nearly 27% of his fly balls are leaving the park.
Today has the potential to be a really tough outing for Corbin. He’s facing a lineup that has 4 guys that have an ISO greater than .200 on the year against lefties. My favorite of the 4 is Soler ($3.3k) who is coming into the game hot.
Over the past week he has a 1.137 OPS and a .468 wOBA. He has 4 barrels and 3 homers over that stretch. A date with a lefty wouldn’t be the same if I didn’t mention Albies ($3.3k), Riley ($3.5k), and Swanson ($3.2k). The Braves today are not priced up for the match up.
Other offenses I really like today are the Blue Jays vs. batting practice pitcher Garrett Richards, the Kansas City Royals vs. Jon Lester, and the Cincinnati Reds vs. Bryce Wilson. All 3 are also primed to have big days.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
Outside of the Yankees game today we should have clear skies. We have a lot of high powered offenses today facing off against pitchers they should do well against.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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