Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 10 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
Today we have another questionable pitching slate. I will say though we have an opportunity to take advantage of some pricing discrepancies between the two sites today. We have some pitchers priced up on one site, while others are priced up on the other. I plan on walking you through 3 of my top pitching plays and my top 3 pitchers to attack.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
We don’t have a single pitcher on FD priced over $10k today. The top 3 pitchers on FD are overpriced for my liking so I’m going to live in the mid-tier range today as they’ll provide us the most upside while also allowing us to build our lineups with very solid bats.
Jordan Montgomery ($8k) vs. Miami Marlins – Gone from the Marlins lineup are some of the righty pop that we’d normally use against a lefty like Montgomery. Duvall was shipped to Atlanta and Marte was shipped out west to the A’s.
The projected lineup that Montgomery is scheduled to face today has a 28% K rate and just a .145 ISO against lefties this year. It’s a much weaker lineup than before the trade deadline and it’s one we’ll want to attack. Montgomery over the past 30 days has been pretty good himself which warrants even more consideration from us.
His xFIP is 3.92 and his K% is 26.5%. On a day where we don’t have may high K guys Montgomery is one that’s going to provide us some of the most upside on the slate.
Adbert Alzolay ($7.5k) vs. Washington Nationals – The Nationals, just like the Marlins, are going to be a watered down lineup from what we saw just a week ago. Gone are Trea Turner, Josh Harrison, and Yan Gomes. Outside of Juan Soto and Josh Bell this is going to be a very low power lineup that Alzolay will face today.
The projected lineup has a 24.5% K rate vs. righties and an extremely low ISO of .115. Alzolay isn’t someone that’s going to wow us with a double strike out game today, but he’s at a price point and against a lineup that can really bring us back some value.
He has at times shown some K upside with multiple games at 6 strikes outs or more. Today has the feeling of one of those days where he can dial it back and bring us at least 6 strike outs.
Jose Berrios ($9k) vs. Kansas City Royals – One of the bigger trades of the deadline this year was Berrios heading up north to the Toronto Blue Jays. While the price is a littler higher than I’d like to pay for Berrios, he’s one of the top pitchers on the slate.
Of all the pitchers on today’s slate, no pitcher has a higher K rate over the past month than Berrios. His K rate over the last 30 days is just a shade under 30% and he’s really been able to limit the hard contact with just a 29% hard hit rate. The match up today is not easy as the Royals are a stingy team.
They are a low K team as the projected lineup today has just a 22% K rate vs. righties on the year. The subtraction of Soler from this lineup makes it a little less intimidating. I will most likely live with the top 2 pitchers in the article, but from a pure talent stand point Berrios is the guy that will provide the highest potential today.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Seattle Mariners vs. Mike Foltynewicz – This is more a testament to the quality of the pitcher than the quality of the lineup. Although the Mariners have been playing some better ball of late. Folty is one of the worst pitchers in the game.
Over the past 30 days he’s brought it to a whole new level as his xFIP over his last 19 innings is 6.67. In his last 19 innings he’s give up 12, yes 12 homers. His fly ball rate over this period is nearly 70% and his hard hit rate is nearly 45%. He’s given up multiple homers in 4 consecutive games, with one of those games being against this same Mariners team.
My main building blocks here will be the lefties of Seattle as Folty’s fly ball rate jumps to 50% against them. Seager ($3.1k), Toro ($2.5k), and Kelenic ($2.1k) all stand a great chance of homering today.
Chicago White Sox vs. Cal Quantrill – If we look at just box scores, Quantrill hasn’t pitched poorly over the past 30 days. However, if we dig in, the advanced metrics tell a very different story.
Both his SIERA and xFIP are more than 2 runs higher than his ERA. He’s giving up way more hard contact than soft contact and he’s not missing any bats with just a 14% K rate. One of the numbers that sticks out the most his LOB % at 88%.
He’s playing with fire and the White Sox are the team that lights him up. Quantrill throws his sinker more than any other pitch. Guys like Abreu ($3.4k), Moncada ($2.9k), and Sheets ($2.3k) all hit this pitch well and should be the building blocks to your stack.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Brad Keller – Keller hasn’t pitched poorly recently, but he’s someone that we can attack because if we look at his season as a whole he’s been someone that has had some pretty rough outings.
I tend to use the Blue Jays more vs. righties than I do lefties. Blue Jays will most likely throw out 7 or 8 right handed hitters today so the pitch mix will be a bunch of sinkers and sliders from Keller. If we take a look at how the Blue Jays have handled this pitch mix from righties, this has the makings of a tough day for Keller.
It all starts at the top as Springer ($4.2k) has an ISO greater than .200 and wOBA over .380 to both pitches. Semien ($3.7K) and Bichette ($4.1k) also both profile extremely well. With how cheap the Mariners are today (and even the White Sox) we should have no issue fitting in the high priced Blue Jays today.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
We’ll need to keep an eye on the weather today as there are a few spots that have some potentially for showers and thunder showers. Pitching is going to be tough today as we have more cons than pros to almost all of them. There will be plenty of offense to go around and we have plenty of salary to fit the bats we want.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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