Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 11 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
It’s the final slate before the All Star break so let’s make it a good one. We have a bunch of solid mid-tiered options today on the hill and a few good hitting environments.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Jose Berrios ($9.9k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Berrios is a little more expensive than I’d like, but he gets a great match-up today vs. the K heavy Detroit Tigers. On the year the Tigers have really struggled against righties. They have a near 27% K rate while hitting for limited power.
If we look at more recent data, we can see that the Tigers have really been struggling of late. Over the past week they have a 29% K rate. Even Happ was able to man handle them recently. Berrios himself is coming off a 10k performance. It was the first time he reached double digits all year. Can he do it again? The match-up is out there for him a repeat.
Pablo Lopez ($9.3k) vs. Atlanta Braves – The Braves lineup took a huge blow last night when they lost Acuna for the year. He is the catalyst of their lineup. My hope is that Lopez can take advantage of that huge today. Also without Acuna in the lineup today we don’t run the risk of Lopez throwing at him today and getting tossed after the first batter.
Lopez has been really solid of late. He’s been dialing up more K’s over the past month as his K rate is sitting at 31% compared to 26% on the year. While the Braves have solid numbers vs. righties this year, they also have an above average K rate sitting at 25%. Acuna being out will only raise that number. Look for Lopez to have a solid day today and end up being one of the top pitchers on the slate.
Brandon Woodruff ($11.2k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – Woodruff is getting to take on a lineup today that has been striking out a ton over the past week. In the last 7 days the Reds have a 27% K rate. I want to take advantage of that today and the good thing for us is that we get a strike out pitcher against them.
Woodruff on the year has a 31% K rate. If we take out his last start against the Mets (we’ll get to them shortly) Woodruff has been great of late. He struck out 9 Dbacks and then 8 Cubs in back to back starts. I like Woodruff to get back on the saddle today and rack up his 8-9 K’s against the reds.
While I didn’t write him up, Robbie Ray ($10.4k) is also in play for GPP’s. He’s an elite strike out pitcher taking on a team that K’s a high clip vs. lefties. They also hit for a ton of power against lefties so it’s a high boom or bust pick.
MLB DFS: The Bats
New York Mets vs. Chase De Jong – It’s been close to two months since I wrote the Mets up as a stack. Their lineup had been beaten and bruised for the better part of that time. Well they are finally healthy and I want to see what they can do against Chase De Jong.
De Jong has really struggled over the past 30 days (longer than that). He’s giving up a ton of hard contact 41% to go along with a high fly ball rate of 41%. He’s someone that we can exploit with both sides of the plate as he has an ISO greater than .240 to righties and lefties.
Alonso ($3.8k) is the key to this lineup as he’s been red hot of late. He has 4 homers in the last week to go along with 5 barrels. Lindor ($3.2k) has also been better of late and I’ll want to include him in any Mets stack I use today. Look for the Mets to put up a big number today.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Rich Hill – This is not a match made in heaven for Hill today. First, let’s look at what Hill has done over the past month. 6 homers in his last 24 innings of work and a 5.56 xFIP. Over his last 5 games he’s given up 4 ER 3 times. I want to try to take advantage of this today.
If we look at pitch make up, we can absolutely exploit him. He throws his curveball more than 40% of the time to righties. Blue Jays have a bunch of guys that hit for a ton of power against left handed curveballs. Springer ($3.7k) has a .533 ISO against it, Hernandez ($3.2k) has a .292 ISO, and Grichuk ($3.1k) has a .267 ISO. These guys should be able to do some damage against Hill today.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Nick Pivetta – Pivetta faces his former teammates for the first time. I think by the end of the day Pivetta wishes he was still on that Phillies team. Pivetta has been giving up home runs at a pretty high pace of late. In his last 28 innings of work he’s given up 8. If we add in the fact that he has a 3.54 BB/9 we know that here’s a pitcher we can take advantage of.
Pivetta is throwing his 4 seamer more than 50% of the time to both sides of the plate this year. Up and down the lineup this has been a pitch that the Phillies have had a ton of success against this season. Realmuto ($3.3k), Hoskins ($3.7k), and Miller ($2.6k) all have slugging %’s greater than .500 to the pitch this year. Harper ($4.1k) is sitting at .493. It’s really going to be a tough day for PIvetta. With the Phillies rolling of late and a great match-up they are my top stack today.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
Sunday always presents us with the added risk of veterans sitting due to it being getaway day. With it being the final day before the All Star break, it’s even more important to keep an extra eye on lineups.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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