Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 11 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
**FD still has the CHW/SEA game on the main slate. I think they’ll follow suit from what DK did and remove it from the main slate since the game is now at 4:30.
Today’s FD slate brings us a couple of studs on the mound and then some mid-range guys that may fit nicely with the Blue Jays. We also have some of my favorite pitchers to pick on, Chi Chi and Happ.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Max Scherzer ($11.2k) vs. Miami Marlins – Mad Max showed a little rust in his last outing after having only thrown 12 pitches over the previous 18 days. In that outing, while he still struck out 8 Phillies, he did throw 106 pitches in 5 IP. My money says he has a much more efficient outing vs. the Marlins today.
Scherzer gets to face off against a team today has really struggled against righties this season. On the year they have a 25% K rate and a measly .135 ISO. Scherzer faced this team earlier this year and had a 9 inning 9 k performance.
While complete games are few and far between these days and I don’t see that happening again, having another 9K performance certainly is within the realm of possibilities.
Patrick Sandoval ($7.8k) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – There’s always risk in using pitchers against the Rays as they have a bunch of guys that can homer at any time. They also have a bunch of guys that can K multiple times a game and that’s what we’re chasing in DFS.
On the year the Rays have a 28% K rate against lefties. Of all the teams going today, that’s the highest mark if we look at the handedness of who they are facing.
In Sandoval we’re getting a guy who I think should be at least $1k more expensive than he is. Over the past 30 days Sandoval has a near 33% K rate. That’s in the elite category. He’s also doing a great job limiting hard contact. He’s actually giving up more soft contact than he is hard. Again there’s always a risk in using pitchers vs. the Rays, but this is a good match-up for Sandoval.
Jake Odorizzi ($7.6k) vs. Detroit Tigers – After struggling to start the year, Odorizzi has been pitching pretty well of late. Over his last 30 days he has a 3.31 xFIP and a K rate nearing 29%. He’s also been doing a great job of limiting hard contact which is at just 26%. The lineup he’s projected to face today has a 25% K rate on the year to righties. At only $7.6k, we really don’t need much to return value. I’m going to most likely use one of Scherzer or Sandoval, but you could do a lot worse than Odorizzi today.
I noticeably left off both Wheeler and Cole from my list of pitchers. I don’t like either match-up for them, especially at their price points. Wheeler is $11k facing a healthy Mets lineup. He also looked very shaky in his last outing. Could it have been related to no more sticky substances? It very well could be.
Cole is also $11k and facing a very a good Red Sox lineup. He has not been himself over the past 30 days with just a 25% K rate. I’m off both of them today.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles – Blue Jays are the clear cut favorite stack of the day. While Lopez hasn’t been awful over the past 30 days, he’s giving up a ton of contact, of which nearly 40% of it his hard contact. A pitcher throwing to contact vs. a lineup like the Blue Jays is just a recipe for disaster.
Lopez throws his sinker more than 35% of the time to both sides of the plate. Blue Jays, up and down this lineup, have a ton of success vs. this pitch. Semien ($3.7k), Bichette ($4.3k), Springer ($4k), Biggio ($3.3k), Grichuk ($3k), and Gurriel ($3k) all have ISO’s greater than .220 vs. this pitch.
If using this stack today, you could certainly make the case to fade Guerrero as the “other” guys in this lineup are all set up to have a great day and come at a discount from him. Blue Jays have a 6.72 IRT as I write this. The only reason to fade them today is to be different and hope they all forgot how to hit overnight.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez – Gonzalez is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. When he’s on the mound, I’m stacking against him. On the year he has a 5.17 xFIP, a 13% K rate, and a 41% hard hit rate. So we have someone that gives up a ton of contact with a healthy amount of that contact being hard contact. In his last 20 innings of work he’s given up 8 barrels. That’s just an absurd rate.
If we dig into splits data, Gonzalez has been giving up more hard contact to righties than lefties. This means we really don’t need to worry about platoon splits much because even righties are tagging him. My main targets from Milwaukee today will be Wong ($3.1k) if he’s back in the lineup, Yelich ($3.8k), Garcia ($2.7k), and Narvaez ($2.4k). If Wong is out I could see Bradley ($2.1k) being moved up to the lead-off spot. Should that happen, I’d love him in the spot.
Cleveland Indians vs. J.A. Happ – Happ’s xFIP is nearing 6 at this point. On the year it’s at 5.93. That’s bad. There’s really nothing else you can say about it. He’s been especially bad against righties this year. He’s giving up a .263 ISO, a 48% fly ball rate, and a 40% hard hit rate vs. righties.
I’m loading up on guys from the right side of the plate today. The top 3 guys vs. lefties this year from the Indians surprisingly don’t include Jose Ramirez ($4.2k). While he’s still in play, he’s expensive. Hernandez ($3.1k), Amed Rosario ($2.6k), and Harold Ramirez ($2.8k) all have ISO’s over .200 this year and come at steep discounts over JRam. Those 3 guys plus Scherzer still gives you nearly $3,100 per player to fill out your roster.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
Sunday always presents us with the added risk of veterans sitting due to it being getaway day. Make sure to keep an extra eye on lineups. It’s going to be a hot one on the east coast today so games that are in New York, Boston, and Buffalo may seem some extra offense.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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