Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a smaller than normal 8 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. With today’s slate we are going to see a much smaller tournament pool with NFL in play. Today’s a day to scale back as the risk just won’t worth the reward.
Let’s dig in to today’s slate!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Freddy Peralta ($9.4k) vs. New York Mets – The New York Mets are playing listless baseball right now. After being in first place the majority of the year, they’ve essentially mailed it in. Losers of 9 out of their last 10 they get a tough matchup in Peralta today. Peralta over the last month is in peak form as the Brewers get ready for the playoffs.
His K rate is approaching 35% and his hard hit rate is below 24%. While there’s concern with his pitch count limitations, he did reach 90 pitches in his last start. He very well could get to 40 FD points by the sixth inning today. Look for Peralta to have a solid day.
Shane Baz ($6.9k) vs. Miami Marlins – The Chris Archer trade continues to look awful for the Pirates. Meadows – Stud. Glasnow – Stud. Baz – Stud. Archer – back with the Rays. If you watched Baz in his last outing you noticed how easily the ball leaves his hand. He throws as effortless as I’ve ever seen a pitcher.
He was able to strike out 5 Blue Jays in just 5 innings. During that game he also had a 21% swinging strike rate. Today he gets to take on a much less imposing lineup in the Miami Marlins. The Marlins lineup hasn’t been awful of late. They’ve actually been decent. That said, if Baz can quiet down a Blue Jays lineup filled with All Stars, he can silence a Marlins lineup filled with youngsters.
John Means ($8.9k) vs. Texas Rangers – Means is starting to pitch better and with him getting to face a porous Rangers lineup I’m looking for him to continue his momentum going into the offseason. In his last outing he was able to quiet a solid a Phillies lineup, going 6 innings and striking out 6. While his K rate is only 21% over the last 30 days, there’s upside with Means today.
The projected Rangers lineup has a 25% K rate over the last month vs. lefties. We saw a high K arm in Means earlier in the year. I think he comes back out to play against a Rangers lineup that has been quieted by the likes of Lowther and Wells. Means is a far superior talent to both those arms. The Rangers, just like the Mets, have mailed it in and are just playing out the string. I can see Means ending the day as the highest scoring pitcher.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Griffin Jax – We have a list. It’s a list of pitchers that when they take the mound we stack against them. Jax is on the list and to be honest, he’s getting closer to the top of the list with each outing. He now has 7 consecutive starts with an xFIP of at least 5. He’s started 16 games this season and has only 2 starts where his xFIP was under 5.
He gives up a ton of contact and that’s what we want to see when attacking pitchers. Over the last 30 days Jax’s fly ball rate is 52% and his hard hit rate is almost 46%. That’s just not going to cut it at the major league level. The Blue Jays are on the outside looking in right now for the Wild Card. They sit 2 games behind the Red Sox and Yankees with just 7 to play. They are going to continue to put their best foot forward and those are the types of teams you want to pick this late in the season.
The guy I’m building around today is Teoscar Hernandez ($4.2k). He is seeing the ball as well as anyone in the game right now. Semien ($4.1k) is another guys smashing the ball right now. He has a 1.141 OPS over the last past week. These 2 are my core but all Blue Jays are in play today. Especially Corey Dickerson ($2.3k) if he makes the lineup. He’s hitting the ball well and gives us a ton of flexibility with his salary.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Max Kranick – Phillies are another team battling for the playoffs right now. They sit just 1.5 games behind the Braves for the NL East. You know they aren’t going to be just playing out the string. Expect their A lineup today vs. a pitcher in Kranick that hasn’t been good in his limited time in the Bigs. On the year he has a 6.53 xFIP and has given up a 44% fly ball rate.
Because he’s a splits neutral pitcher, I’m going to lean on the Phillies that are the hottest right now. It starts at the top with the near min priced Vierling ($2.1k). Over the last week he has a 1.108 OPS and a .461 wOBA. He’s going to set the trend for the Phillies today. Other guys I like here are MPV candidate Harper ($4.5k) and JT Realmuto ($3.6k). Both guys are rolling and if the Phillies want to continue their push they’ll need them to produce.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jesus Luzardo – The Rays have already clinched the AL East so we’ll want to keep an eye on what lineup they put out. That said, they get a great match up vs. a pitcher in Luzardo who has struggled with the Marlins. Over the last month his xFIP is at 5.68. Luzardo has very clear splits. We want to prioritize righties here. They have a .280 ISO against Luzardo over the last month.
The guys that come to mind are Diaz ($3.2k) and Zunino ($3k). Both guys have been crushing lefties this year and especially over the last month. Both guys have ISO’s over .400 against them over the last month. Luplow ($2.3k) and Margot ($2.2k) will also make nice compliments here. Rays are cheap today.
They’ll help us grab the expensive bats from the Phillies or Blue Jays. Normally there’s a pinch hit threat with the Rays but with little to play for right now, we can probably expect some of these guys to stay in there while the veterans get a breather.
Cardinals are also in a great spot but at some point their magic will run out and I expect that to happen today.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
While the contests are smaller today, this is shaping up to be a fun slate. Pitching today seems pretty clear in my eyes. I really love this kid in Baz and will be sure to use him today. He gives us a ton of salary relief too.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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