Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 10 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Robbie Ray ($11.2k) vs. Oakland Athletics – What a year that Robbie Ray has had! He made some pitch selection changes coming into the year and they have really paid off in a Cy Young level season. Over the last month Ray has been dominant. He has a 37.5% K rate which is way above the field.
Ray has also been really doing a great job of limiting the hard contact with just a 25.7% hard hit rate over the last 30 days. Ray sets up extremely well w/ the A’s. His main strike out pitch is his slider and it’s a pitch that the A’s can struggle with as they have a handful of batters that have whiff rates over 30%.
If he can neutralize Marte today he should have one of his 50 FD point outings. He’s my SP1.
Dylan Cease ($9.3k) vs. Kansas City Royals – Cease put together a solid August. He had a 3.94 xFIP and an elite 33% K rate, trailing only Ray of all the starters going today. The match up vs. the Royals isn’t the greatest as they tend to be stingy, but if I’m going to attack the Royals it will almost always be with a righty.
Cease matches up pretty well w/ the Royals as his main pitch to strike batters out his slider. He has a 40% K rate with it this year and uses it about 30% of the time. Outside of Perez (my vote is to just intentionally walk him all day) the Royals lineup really struggles with sliders.
You have guys like Dozier and O’hearn who have whiff rates near 50%. If Cease’s slider is on today, sky’s the limit.
Luis Castillo ($9.9k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Of all aces going today, Castillo probably gets the softest of the match ups. Tigers over the last 30 days have a 24% K rate vs. righties.
While Mahle didn’t have the greatest game against them last night he did strike out 8 Tigers. I see no reason why Castillo can’t match that strike out number and I have more confidence in him limited the damage done.
Over the past 30 days he’s been keeping batters in check w/ just a 26% hard hit rate and just 4 barrels in nearly 30 innings of work. Castillo has just 1 start under 30 FD points in the last 3 months. Look for him to continue that trend w/ a floor of 30 points today.
I love Burnes as a pitcher and he should do well today. He’s just overpriced in my opinion as he’s almost $2k more on FD than he is on DK.
Burnes has faced the Cardinals 3 times this year and has only eclipsed 40 FD points once and that was back in April when he was striking out batters more consistently. I’m not saying don’t play him, I just think he’s closer to his floor today than he is his ceiling.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Griffin Jax – I’m going to channel my inner Brian and use the Rays as my top stack tonight. They get a match up in a pitcher that has been struggling to limit hard contact.
Over the past 30 days Jax has a near 48% hard hit rate with a 46% fly ball rate. Add those 2 numbers together and you have a pitcher in Jax that has given up 8 homers and 10 barrels in just 21 innings of work.
Jax has been pretty awful to both sides of the plate as righties have a .317 ISO against him and lefties a .400 over the past month. If we look at this Rays lineup they just dominate righties.
Lowe ($3.4k) and Kiermaier ($2.2k) are my favorites here. Lowe has a .338 ISO against righties over the past month and Kiermaier has .279. Both guys are my core.
The other guys I’ll look to sprinkle in from the Rays are Austin Meadows ($3.4k) and Wander Franco ($4.2k). The Rays are hot again w/ the bats and a pitcher like Jax stands no chance at slowing them down.
New York Mets vs. Josiah Gray – Don’t look now but the Mets’ bats have finally woken up after sleeping through most of August. Look, Gray has a ton of talent. He is one of the top pitching prospects in the game as he was part of the Turner/Scherzer deal.
That said, he’s still someone that is attackable with how he has been pitching of late. Over his last 27 innings of work he’s given up 8 homers. When you give up a 55% fly ball rate you’re bound to see some balls leave the park.
The first bat I’m going to build my core around will be Jonathan Villar ($2.8k) as he’s been red hot over the last week. He has a 1.359 OPS and .565 wOBA. The next guy is Michael Conforto ($2.7k).
Conforto is as streaky of a hitter as there is in the game. He’s seeing the ball extremely well right now and when he’s locked in, you play him. He has a 53% hard hit rate over the past week. Enjoy the ride while it lasts with him.
Another disappointing Met that is starting to see the ball well again is Francisco Lindor ($3.3k). Lindor has a 53% hard hit rate and 47% fly ball rate over the past week. With the Mets finally hitting like they were supposed to they should get to Gray early today and then get the Nats bullpen.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cole Irvin – Irvin has not been good over the past 30 days. Frankly, he’s been awful. Over the last month he has a 6.31 xFIP. He’s giving up more walks per 9 than he has strike outs.
With that in mind, the Blue Jays today are a team that you need to either go all in on, or fade today. He’s going to put a ton of batters on as he has a 1.71 WHIP since the beginning of August. With the Blue Jays I want to focus on the bats that have been the hottest.
Lourdes Gurriel ($3.3k), Vlad Guerrero ($4.5k), and Bo Bichette ($4k) all have an OPS over 1.100 over the past week. They are hot and if you play the Blue Jays today they should be in your lineup.
My hope is that Breyvic Valera ($2k) makes the lineup today. Over his last 3 games he’s been extremely productive and is essentially a free square if he plays. Montoyo, please play Valera!
While these 3 are may favorite stacks today, there’s a ton of offense to go around. The White Sox vs. Singer should put up a big number as he just puts so many batters on base. Also have to love the Yankees vs. Keegan Akin.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
We have some really solid pitchers on the mound today. I will more than likely lock in Cy Young favorite Robbie Ray and then load up on the value plays from the Mets. Rays are extremely affordable on FD today and in a smash spot. This Sunday Funday has a great slate of games and we should see a ton of offense.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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