Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 11game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The Aces
Before we dive into the pitchers I should say pitching is a dumpster fire today. All pitchers have some level of risk, some more than others. We’re void of any true ace.
Dylan Cease ($9.3k) vs. Chicago Cubs – Lynn for all intents and purposes was a let down last night. He gave up 7 ER in just 5 innings of work w/ most of the damage a grand slam to Ortego. Lynn also managed 7 strike outs in the 5 innings of work. With pitchers in DFS we chase strike outs and that’s what we’re going to do here with Cease.
Over the past month Cease has a near 34% K rate. No pitcher on today’s slate has the strike out ability that Cease has and at his price he’s not going to break the bank. One of Cease’s main strike out pitches is his slider.
If we look at the projected lineup for the Cubs only Duffy has a whiff rate less than 30% and it’s at 28%. If Cease’s slider is on point today he stands to have a ceiling type game.
Tyler Mahle ($9.6k) vs. Miami Marlins – Yes, the Marlins were able to get to Gutierrez early yesterday. After the first inning though they managed just 1 more run the entire game.
With Mahle we’re getting a pitcher that also has some K upside as his K rate is 28.5% over the past month. He’s also been doing a great job of limited the hard contact with a 24% hard hit rate.
Mahle is another guy that relies on his slider pretty heavily. If it’s on today, he too should have a ceiling game. Everyone in the projected lineup for the Marlins has a whiff rate greater than 30% against sliders. This is a good spot for Mahle today.
Ranger Suarez ($6.8K) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – If you want to save on pitching today the only guy that really peaks my interest is Suarez. He has continued to ramp up the pitch count and got it all the way up to 99 against the Rays with a dominant 7K performance.
While I don’t know if we see that many K’s again, I do like him to easily pay off his salary. He has one of the heaviest sinkers in the game as he induces a very nice groundball rate of 69%. With so many groundballs he’s really done a great job of limiting damage from the opposing team and with a weak Diamondbacks I don’t see why it won’t happen again today.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Spencer Watkins – The Rays have been somewhat of a disappointment the last couple of days. With DFS I’ve learned if you are riding a team and they’ve disappointed you need to keep riding them. The day you stop is the day they explode. Today, they explode.
Watkins has not been good. Over the last month he has a 5.19 xFIP and a near 38% hard hit rate. He’s given up 10 barrels in just 21 innings of work.
I’m going to start my Rays stack with Brandon Lowe ($3.9k). While he’s been a bit of a disappointment this week, some of it has been a string of bad luck as he has a .154 BABIP this week.
He’s on the verge of a breakout again and I do believe it’s today vs. a fastball throwing Watkins. Lowe has a near .700 slugging % vs. fastballs and this is a great spot for him today.
The other two guys I’ll be focused on here are Yandy Diaz ($3k) and Wander Franco ($3.9k). The are the hottest hitters on Tampa right with both having OPS’s this week around the .900 mark.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Jesus Luzardo – Luzardo is another attackable arm. Since his arrival in Miami he has been…not good.
He’s been especially wild as his zone % is just 36% and his first strike % is 51.8%. What that essentially means is he’s getting behind on almost every hitter and hitters are in hitter’s counts.
Luzardo’s been splits neutral meaning he’s been dreadful to both sides of the plate. The guy I want to start my Reds stack is with ROY candidate Jonathan India ($3.6k).
He has a .250 ISO against lefties in the month of August. He should set the table today for the Reds today. Other guys I want in this match up are guys that project well against sinkers.
Joe Votto ($3.8k), Nick Castellanos ($4.2k), and Kyle Farmer ($2.9k) all have slugging %’s of .590 or greater against them this year. This all sets up very poorly for Luzardo.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Griffin Jax – Regression caught up with Jax in his last outing. He had been skating by with a ton of luck and the Red Sox were that team that broke the good luck. Look for the Brewers to continue the trend today.
Over the last month Jax has a ton of poor indicators. He has a 43% hard hit rate, a 48% fly ball rate, and a 9 barrels. Batters are teeing off on him and it’s just been a matter of the balls not find a glove. In his last start not only did the balls finally start to find the holes, 3 of them left the yard.
Jax has been pretty bad to both sides of the plate, but he’s been especially bad against lefties with a .324 ISO against. The two guys I’m really interested in here are Rowdy Tellez ($2.6k) and Omar Narvaez ($2.7k).
Over the last 30 days both guys have been hitting righties pretty hard. Tellez with a 55% rate and Narvaez at 42%. They are also cheap and we’ve paid a ton in salary with the Rays and Reds. These guys are going to help us afford the more expensive bats. Wong ($3.5k) and Adames ($3k) are also pieces here I’m very interested in.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
Pitching is not easy today. All pitchers, including the ones in the ace arena, have some caution flags. My bats will be anchored around the Rays/Reds combo and I’ll be sure to grab the couple of cheap Brewers pieces. All three of those lineups are set up to have great days.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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