Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Monday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have our final 4 game slate of the 2021 MLB Division Series. All 8 playoff teams are in action.
My goal today will be to walk you through where my mind is with pitching and then focus on some bats that are a must.
Let’s dig in to today’s slate!
MLB DFS: Pitching
As we’ve seen for the most part with pitching so far, we’ll want to pick the pitchers that will do the least damage while also grabbing some K’s to thwart off the damage. We’ve only seen a handful of truly dominant outings so far between Webb, Fried, and Morton.
The first guy I’m going to look to today is Freddy Peralta vs. the Atlanta Braves. Peralta hasn’t pitched in more than 2 weeks. With him we’re dealing with a rested pitcher but also a pitcher that may show some rust. He has just as much K upside as anyone else throwing today.
He’ll face a team that will throw out 5 righties and he’s struck out righties at a near 38% clip this year. The winner of this game puts the other team on the brink of elimination. With Peralta on the hill I like the Brewers to go up 2-1 in the series.
The next guy I’m looking to is Carlos Rodon vs. the Houston Astros. Rodon is another guy that hasn’t pitched in about 2 weeks so there’s some level of rust involved with him. That said the White Sox need Rodon to have a dominant outing today if they have any chance of extending this series.
Rodon struck out righties at a near 36% clip this season and he’s going to face a lineup predominantly right handed. When he’s on he’s dominant. This is a very high risk, but very high reward type of pick.
I expect Max Scherzer to be extra amped up today. Amped up Scherzer is the best Scherzer. Dodgers return home today looking to take a 2-1 series lead and who better to turn the ball over to than Mad Max.
Coming into the playoffs Scherzer was struggling a bit but he was able to somewhat return to form and stymie the hot St. Louis Cardinals. Max has K rates greater than 30% to both sides of the plate this year so while the Giants are a low strike out team, I fully expect him to be one of the top pitchers on the slate.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Ian Anderson – Depending on who the Rays throw out today, Ian Anderson is the worst pitcher on the slate. He comes into the playoffs not in great form. Over the course of September he gave up 7 homers in just 5 outings, while also walking 12 batters. He’s beatable today and the Brewers have a real shot at going up 2-1 in the series.
I’m going to attack Anderson with lefties as he gives up significantly more fly balls to them. Anderson will throw lefties his changeup close to 40% of the time. Brewers have some lefties that handle them very well. The first two that I’d look at are Christian Yelich and Omar Narvaez.
Both guys have slugging %’s over .500 against changeups this year. My hope is that Craig Counsel plays Daniel Vogelbach today as Vogelbach profiles extremely well against Anderson. If he doesn’t, I also like Rowdy Tellez and Eduardo Escobar today.
Chicago White Sox vs. Jose Urquidy – The White Sox finally exploded last night keeping their World Series hopes alive. They should explode against today as they face off against a pitcher in Urquidy who struggled at times this year.
Urquidy was a reverse splits pitcher this season and performed pretty poorly against right handed hitting. Not a good sign for him today as he faces a lineup where the core is right handed. Righties had a .234 ISO against him this season.
If the White Sox have any hope of continuing this series they’ll need Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Jose Abreu, and Yasmani Grandal to perform well today. Those guys would be my core if going with the White Sox.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox – The last team on the brink of elimination today is the Tampa Bay Rays. After taking the opener of the series they’ve dropped 2 in a row including an absolute heart breaker last night. The Rays are a deep lineup and will be able to load up on righties today giving them some serious platoon advantages.
A guy like Jordan Luplow becomes an important part of the Rays puzzle because he’s cheap and has a .247 against lefties this season. He is however a pinch hit risk once a righty comes into the game.
Mike Zunino, Randy Arozarena, and Nelson Cruz are also must plays here. With father time not on his side it very well could be Cruz’s final game and you can be sure he’s going to try his best to keep this series going.
A full game stack of the Rays/Red Sox game is also in play. Right now the projected starter for the Rays is Colin McHugh. If it is McHugh on the hill I’m going to load up on guys like Kyle Schwarber and Devers.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
This is the last 4 game slate of the year and it very well could be the best of the year, at least from a fan’s perspective. We have 2 teams in the Rays and White Sox who are battling for their playoff lives. I expect them to come out hungry and force game 5’s. Pitching is tough and all present some level of risk.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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