Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Monday edition of Aces and Bases. Tonight we have a small 6 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.
My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. With a small slate comes a limited pool of options.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
MLB DFS: The “Aces”
I’ll start by saying pitching today is tough. We have one pitcher priced above $10k in Lance Lynn and I just don’t think I can go there with him against the Blue Jays. The next guy down is Alek Manoah and he too is facing a tough lineup in the White Sox.
Will Crowe ($6.2k) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – This tells you all you need to know about pitching today. Crowe hasn’t been awful over the past 30 days. His xFIP is in the low 4 range and he’s actually been striking some batters out. His K rate is 25% over that same period.
Of the pitchers throwing today, only 2 have a higher K rate over the same period. I’m going here today because the match up is soft. Arizona just came out of the best hitting environment and outside of yesterday’s break out they weren’t able to muster much offense.
The lineup today for Arizona should have 6 lefties in it. Although Crowe does tend to give up more fly balls to lefties, he also strikes them out more. Over the past 30 days he has a near 30% K rate vs. lefties. With his salary, you can just about get any bat you want to day.
Antonio Senzatela ($7.3k) vs. Chicago Cubs – I told you it was bad today. The projected cubs lineup tonight has 25.5% K rate over the 30 days against righties with just a .134 ISO. They’re striking out at a good rate and not putting up much power.
The wind is projected to be blowing out of Wrigley tonight but I’m not as worried with Senzatela on the mound as he’s a ground ball pitcher. With pitching so awful tonight I’m more looking for a decent floor. Senzatela provides that has 7 consecutive starts with at least 20 FD points.
Over the last month he has a 4.13 xFIP so he hasn’t been that bad at all. He’s not a high strike out guy at just 14% during that same period but a match up against the Cubs should see that number climb tonight.
Huascar Ynoa ($8.6k) vs. New York Yankees – I probably won’t get here tonight because of the match up vs. a hot Yankees lineup, but Ynoa provides some decent K upside tonight. While Ynoa has missed some time this year, he has a 27% K rate on the year.
The Yankees hit for a lot of power, but they also K a lot. Over the past month they have a 27% K rate vs. righties. If Ynoa can limit the damage tonight, he has some serious K upside. He’s my high risk/high reward pitcher tonight.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Houston Astros vs. Daniel Lynch – That box score of Lynch’s looked great last outing. He had 5 strikeouts, gave up just 4 hits, and only 1 ER in 7 innings. Sometimes, looks can be deceiving.
He also gave up 9 hard “hits” that amounted to a 53% hard hit rate. His BABIP on the game was a pretty low .235 and his LOB % was over 85%. What looks good in the final line doesn’t always tell the whole story. My hope is that the casual fan looks at just the box score and not what actually happened in the game.
The Astros have a handful of guys that have been absolutely crushing lefties of late. Alvarez ($4.1k), Gurriel ($3.1k), and Diaz ($2.7k) all have ISO’s north of .300 against lefties over the last 30 days and those 3 are going to be my priority. I’m focused on these 3 because of a couple of factors. Alvarez due to the L/L matchup and he will probably go under owned. Gurriel and Diaz due to the Lynch not being as strong against righties. His season long K rate drops from 29% against lefties to just 17% against righties.
There’s regression coming for Lynch and the Astros will bring it out today.
Oakland Athletics vs. Marco Gonzales – Gonzales is another pitcher that has some regression coming his way. Over the last 30 days he has an insanely low BABIP of just .213 and an LOB of 95%. With having such a high contact % at 81% and low BABIP it’s only a matter of time before the balls start dropping.
My focus with Athletics today will be with the righties. Over the last 30 days Gonzales has been far batter against lefties. His K rate vs. lefties is over 35% while against righties it’s just 16%. Righties have a 50% fly ball rate vs. just 29% for lefties.
The one guy that really stands out here is Matt Chapman ($3.6k). Over the last month he has a .480 ISO against lefties with a .482 wOBA. He’s my building block here. Other guys I’m interested with in this lineup are Marte ($3.9k) and Harrison ($2.7k).
Both guys have wOBA’s greater than .400 in the last 30 days vs. lefties. If my hunch is correct and the A’s get to Gonzales we can also look to get Olson ($3.9k) at a depressed ownership. He’s no slouch against lefties as he has a .351 ISO against them this year.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Humberto Mejia – It’s looking like Mejia may get the start for the Diamondbacks tonight. If he does, I’ll look to grab some Pirates bats. Mejia pitched briefly in the majors with the Marlins last year and it was not pretty.
In just 3 starts he managed a 5.40 ERA and a 6.18 xFIP. He gave up ISO’s of at least .250 to both sides of the plate in his limited sample. My stack here is going to start with Tsutsugo ($2.4k) who has made the most of his time so far with the Pirates. He has hits in 4 of his first 6 games with them and 2 of the hits have left the park. While it’s only 6 PA, he has an .833 ISO against righties.
The other piece I’ll definitely look to lock in from the Pirates will be Brian Reynolds ($3.2k). Reynolds has been on fire of late as he has a .339 ISO against righties in the last 30 days. He should have no issue against the fastball/change up mix he’ll see from Mejia tonight.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
Pitching tonight is back to a dumpster fire. The top tiered guys are in awful spots so I plan on living in the mid to low range with the hope they can limit enough damage that my bats will carry me to the top.
Houston and Oakland will be my core but I’ll be sure to add in a couple of Pirates along the way as Mejia is not good.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
