Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Friday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have our first 4 game slate of the 2021 MBL Division Series. All 8 playoff teams are in action
My goal today will be to walk you through where my mind is with pitching and then focus on some bats that are a must.
Let’s dig in to today’s slate!
MLB DFS: The Aces
My pitching pool today will consist of 3 pitchers. Corbin Burnes ($10.4 FD/$9.1k DK), Walker Buehler ($9.9k FD/$8.5k DK), and Shane Baz ($7.8k FD/$6.3k DK). Let’s start with Burnes. I’m going to ignore his final start of the year because it was a meaningless 2 inning start.
I want to focus on the three starts before that. He K’d 14 Indians, 11 Cubs, and then 9 Mets. That’s 34 K’s in just 21 innings. No one on this slate has the strike out upside as Burnes has. Burnes is going to face a predominantly right handed lineup today. He has a 37% K rate vs. them in 2021 and gave up just a .061 ISO. No pitcher is safe today, but Burnes is the safest of the bunch.
Next up on my wish list is Buehler. He comes into today’s game after pitching arguably his best game of the year on Sunday. In that game he struck 11 in just 5 innings and gave up just 3 hits to the Brewers. He’s pitching on regular rest so there’s little risk to him being rusty.
Giants should throw out 5 lefties in their lineup today. For us, that’s not a bad thing. While he has a slightly lower K rate against lefties, he also gives up less fly balls and less hard contact. Look for Buehler to have a dominant game against a Giants team that hasn’t played since Sunday.
The final guy I’m looking at is Shane Baz. This kid has a dynamic arm. I suspect he’s going to be more popular today on DK because of how cheap he is. While he has only 3 Major League games under his sleeve, all 3 showed some dominance. He had a near 37% K rate in those 3 games and had a greater than 16% swinging strike rate. The biggest risk with Baz is a quick hook. IF he gets into trouble early, Kevin Cash could go to his bullpen pretty quickly.
I’m off Sale today. He’s coming into the playoffs not in good form. Over his last 12 innings he’s given up 6 walks and 7 runs. He’s not sharp and gets a tough match up vs. the Rays.
MLB DFS: The Bats
Chicago White Sox vs. Framber Valdez – Of all the pitchers on the hill today, Valdez has the highest xFIP and has given up the most hard contact. His hard rate over the past 30 days is nearly 41%. And he gets an absolutely awful match up. The White Sox were one of the best teams in baseball this season vs. lefties.
Valdez is going to throw a ton of sinkers today. He throws it more than 60% of the time to both sides of the plate. Guys like Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, and Yasmani Grandal have historically crushed sinkers coming from lefties. All have ISO’s over .250 over the last few years vs. the pitch. They would be my core to any White Sox stack. If you need some value, a guy like Andrew Vaughn is very affordable on both sites today.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chris Sale – I said it up top that Sale is not in good form. He’s beatable and he’s going to get beat by the Rays today. It’s all going to start with Randy Arozarena. The guy was built for October. He dominated the playoffs last year and he started out on fire last night. Who steals home in the playoffs?
My TB stack will start with him and then include guys like Nelson Cruz, Yandy Diaz, and Mike Zunino. All 3 of them come into the game today with solid numbers vs. lefties on the year and especially over the last month. Sale and his slider are going to be no match for the Rays today. Margot and Luplow are great values but are also pinch hit risks later in the game.
Houston Astros vs. Lucas Giolito – Gio is a solid pitcher but he’s facing a team that’s hitting the ball extremely well right now. Over their last 4 games they haven’t scored less than 6 runs. That includes yesterday vs. Lance Lynn. Any Astros stack has to start with Yordan Alvarez. He has the most power of anyone on the Astros and has a .271 ISO vs. righties over the last month.
Kyle Tucker is another guy I’d want to prioritize here. Gio throws his change up a third of the time to lefties. Tucker has a .289 ISO against righty change ups and a 45% hard hit rate. Brantley is also someone else to put in your lineup as he’s batting second and is very affordable today on both sites.
MLB DFS: The Wrap Up
All pitchers today have some level of risk. Most teams have rested bullpens and pitchers this time of year have shorter hooks than normal. That said, Burnes and Buehler are the aces I’d target and if you want to get cute Baz should be your guy.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
